Climate Change, Conflict, and Children Richard Akresh University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign March 2015

Introduction and Motivation  Research Questions:  What is the evidence linking climate variability to conflict?  What is the evidence measuring the short and long- term impacts of children’s exposure to conflict?

Introduction and Motivation  How is conflict defined?  Interstate wars, civil conflicts, genocides, ethnic cleansing, political and neighborhood violence, localized rioting or disputes have all been examined under the rubric of conflict research  Conflicts vary in their duration with some lasting days and others decades, how many individuals are exposed and/or displaced, whether deaths are concentrated among soldiers or civilians, and their underlying reasons for occurring

Figure 1: Distribution of Articles, by Region

Figure 2: Distribution of Articles, by Type of Conflict

Research Overview: Climate-Conflict Links  Seminal research showing link between reduced rainfall and civil wars in Africa  However, climate change models much less certain about future rainfall changes than about temperature changes  Subsequent work showing link between hotter temperatures and conflict  If historical relationship holds, climate change models showing 1 degree Celsius hotter temperatures lead to 54% increase in conflict

Research Overview: Climate-Conflict Links  Debate is still on-going  Relationship might not hold for smaller scale conflicts or other time periods  Recent research examines link between more localized climate variability and more localized violence

Research Overview: Conflict-Children Impacts  Most of literature measuring impacts of conflict on children focused on:  Health (stunting, mortality, birthweight)  Education (years of schooling)  Mental health (depression)  Other (labor markets, political beliefs, gender violence)

Figure 4: Distribution of Conflict and Children Papers, by Outcome

Research Overview: Conflict-Children Impacts  Individuals exposed to conflict in utero or early childhood suffer negative health/education effects  Evidence much thinner when focusing on long-term impacts or measuring precise timing during a child’s life of when conflicts matter most  In contrast with other types of negative shocks, exposure to conflict not correlated with gender bias against girls  Little known about mechanisms through which conflict impacts education/health, how households cope with conflict shocks, impact of conflict on other outcomes including intergenerational transmission of shock

Gaps in the Conflict-Children Literature  Measuring conflict exposure correctly  Exposure outside of in utero and first 1000 days of life may matter  All children impacted not just girls: What is different about conflicts compared to other types of shocks?  Mechanisms?  Coping strategies  Untangle how different types of conflicts have similar/different impacts  Other outcomes besides education/health

EXTRA SLIDES

Figure 3: Breakdown of Conflict Data Used in Climate Change-Conflict Research Papers