P A L M E R D E V E L O P M E N T G R O U P P D GP D G City of Cape Town An Update of the Water Services Financial Model 26 October 2006

P D GBackground At the end of 2005 a report was presented that was the culmination of work done to determine: At the end of 2005 a report was presented that was the culmination of work done to determine: –What is affordable and sustainable capital expenditure for water services? –What are implications for: Financing (how funds are secured)Financing (how funds are secured) The service (what can and can’t be done)The service (what can and can’t be done) Tariffs (impact on consumer)Tariffs (impact on consumer) –What are the key strategic issues facing the service in order to get water services onto a sustainable footing? This was done using 2003/04 data. This was done using 2003/04 data.

P D G Outcomes from previous work Financing issues Financing issues –Water services needs too secure an appropriate share of MIG funds –Cost of capital Current cost of capital for sanitation to high (15%), must negotiate with the City to reduce thisCurrent cost of capital for sanitation to high (15%), must negotiate with the City to reduce this –Will need to look at project finance for some of the larger projects (continue dialogue with MIIU and DBSA) For a sustainable service the following is required: For a sustainable service the following is required: –Basic services for all –Adequate provision for rehabilitation –Adequate provision for maintenance –Improved collections and debt management –Higher tariffs are necessary for a sustainable services –Capital programme will need to be fit for purpose (and trimmed down from current needs assessment)

P D G Request for model update PDG was requested to work with the City to update the data in the model based on the 2005/06 financial year. PDG was requested to work with the City to update the data in the model based on the 2005/06 financial year. The scope of work did not include any discussion and revision of the model assumptions, except a revision of the population projections and the LTWD forecast. The scope of work did not include any discussion and revision of the model assumptions, except a revision of the population projections and the LTWD forecast. –What was proposed to the City was to: engage in a series of strategic discussions for each of the key ‘sub business’ areas addressed in the model for example network management (UAW; meter replacements), water demand forecasts, basic services programme, etc.engage in a series of strategic discussions for each of the key ‘sub business’ areas addressed in the model for example network management (UAW; meter replacements), water demand forecasts, basic services programme, etc.

P D G Model update Results Results –Demand –Operating costs –Capital costs –Tariffs

P D G Demand – for connections Population growth: 1.1 % (Dorrington’s projections) Population growth: 1.1 % (Dorrington’s projections) New household formation: approximately New household formation: approximately Backlog (informal settlements): eradicated for water and for sanitation Backlog (informal settlements): eradicated for water and for sanitation Primarily affects -- reticulation infrastructure CAPEX -- reticulation infrastructure CAPEX -- staffing and maintenance OPEX -- staffing and maintenance OPEX

P D G Demand – for connections

P D G Demand for water Affects: Affects: –Water sales, production and wastewater treatment –Bulk infrastructure requirements –Bulk water purchases –Chemical and energy costs –Revenue

P D G Demand for water Long term Water demand forecast (CoCT)

P D G Operating costs Staffing levels and costs Staffing levels and costs –Assume efficiency gain of 5% Maintenance Maintenance –Fixed at 1 % of asset value (may be too low?) Bulk purchases Bulk purchases –Exogenous; significant real increases (from Berg River and new sources (figures to be confirmed) Change to: maintenance assumption maintenance assumption Updated Berg River figures still need to be obtained

P D G Operating costs

P D G Staff costs

P D G Maintenance & bulk costs Significant impact in early years

P D G Opex outcomes Staff costs too high? Staff costs too high? Note real reduction in “other” costs Note real reduction in “other” costs

P A L M E R D E V E L O P M E N T G R O U P P D GP D G Capital programme

P D G 4 scenarios 1. City of Cape Town (needs based) 2. Model (calculated using unit costs and demand) 3. “Affordable” (not implemented as yet) 4. Choice The “choice” option allows user to choose one of the three options for each of the major components of the system (bulk water expansion, bulk water renewals etc)

P D G Comparison of scenarios

P D G Assessment of CoCT scenario over ambitious too low

P A L M E R D E V E L O P M E N T G R O U P P D GP D G Tariffs required

P D G CoCT CAPEX R 7 /kl

P D G Modeling process Collate and input data Design model Refine data Demand assumptions Operatingcosts CAPEX programme Financial targets Outcomes Sensitivity Tariff requirements Refine scenarios Strategic conclusions

P D G Model design ScenarioManager Summary Pages Demand Opex Capex Assets ISBSCF Debtors & collections