Workshop on Demographic Analysis and Evaluation

Mortality: Estimation from Child Survivorship Data وفيات: تقدير من بيانات حالة البقاء على الحياة الطفل

Child Mortality as an Index of Mortality Level معدل وفيات الأطفال كمؤشر لمستوى الوفيات In this part of the workshop we will cover: في هذا الجزء من الحلقة ونحن سوف تغطي:  An indirect technique for estimating child mortality from child survivorship data  أسلوب غير مباشر لتقدير معدل وفيات الأطفال من بيانات حالة البقاء على الحياة الطفل  The derivation of a life table based on child mortality  الاشتقاق من جدول الحياة استناداً إلى معدل وفيات الأطفال 3

Brass’ childhood mortality technique estimates probabilities of dying between birth and certain ages based on numbers of children ever born and children surviving by age of mother. Based on information on children ever born and children surviving, classified by age of their mothers or by marriage duration, proportion of dead children (in relation to those born) are converted into probabilities of surviving from birth to an exact age (1, 2, 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20 years). Brass' Child Survivorship Technique 4

Brass noticed that the proportions dead of children ever born, classified by age of mother, were close to the probability of dying between birth and certain ages, and that the differences were primarily a function of the pattern of fertility. He therefore developed a set of multipliers to convert the proportions dead to the life table x q 0 values, the probability of dying between birth and age x… "براس" لاحظت أن نسبة القتلى من الأطفال الذين يولدون من أي وقت مضى، مصنفة حسب الفئة العمرية للأم، كانت قريبة من احتمال الوفاة بين الولادة وسن معينة، وأن الفروق كانت دالة الدرجة الأولى لنمط الخصوبة. أنه لذلك وضعت مجموعة من مضاعفات تحويل النسب الميت للحياة الجدول xq0 القيم، احتمال الوفاة بين الولادة وسن العاشرة... Brass' Child Survivorship Technique الطفل تقنية "براس" حالة البقاء على الحياة 5

…Multipliers to convert the proportions dead to the life table x q 0 values, the probability of dying between birth and age x: …مضاعفات تحويل النسب الميت للحياة الجدول xq0 القيم، احتمال الوفاة بين العاشر: ولادة وسن x q 0 = k i. D i Where: x q 0 is the probability of dying between birth and age x; k i is a multiplier; D i is the proportion of children dead; and i is the age group of the mother. Brass' Child Survivorship Technique الطفل تقنية "براس" حالة البقاء على الحياة 6

The k i multipliers vary as a function of the fertility pattern in the population being studied. The multipliers are usually estimated based on ratios of successive average parities, P(i)/P(i+1), where i is the index of the age group (i = 15-19,... 7 = 45-49). وتختلف مضاعفات كي كدالة لنمط الخصوبة في السكان تجري دراستها. تقدر المضاعفات عادة استناداً إلى نسب تعادلات متوسط المتعاقبة، P(i)/P(i+1)، حيث الأول هو مؤشر للفئة العمرية (أنا = 15-19،... 7 = 45-49). Brass' Child Survivorship Technique 7

The data for mothers at selected age groups provide the following information: البيانات الخاصة بالأمهات في الفئات العمرية المحددة توفر المعلومات التالية: IndexAge of (i)mother Derived values_______________________________ q 0 probability of dying between birth and age q 0 probability of dying between birth and age q 0 probability of dying between birth and age q 0 probability of dying between birth and age q 0 probability of dying between birth and age q 0 probability of dying between birth and age q 0 probability of dying between birth and age 20 Brass' Child Survivorship Technique 8

Brass' original calculations were based on a limited range of fertility and mortality patterns. Refinements of the Brass method have used correlation coefficients obtained from information derived from a broader range of mortality and fertility patterns. Trussel's equations were introduced in Manual X (1983), for use with Coale-Demeny model life table mortality. Brass' Child Survivorship Technique 9

The most recent refinement is that by Palloni and Heligman, which requires calculation of mean age at maternity – an indicator of the average age difference between women and their children – and uses the UN's regional model mortality patterns. Both the Trussel and Paloni-Heligman versions rely on the Coale and Trussel model fertility schedules (1974). Both the Trussel and Paloni-Heligman estimates are calculated in the United Nations' QFIVE program. Brass' Child Survivorship Technique 10

صقل آخر هو أن بالوني وهيليغمان، الذي يتطلب حساب متوسط العمر عند الولادة – مؤشرا لمتوسط العمر الفرق بين النساء والأطفال – ويستخدم أنماط الوفيات نموذج إقليمي للأمم المتحدة. إصدارات كل من تروسيل وهيليغمان بالوني تعتمد على كالي وتروسيل جداول الخصوبة النموذجي ( 1974). وتحسب تقديرات كل من تروسيل وهيليغمان بالوني في برنامج قفيفي التابعة للأمم المتحدة. Brass' Child Survivorship Technique 11

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Data required:  Children ever born classified by 5-year age groups of mother, from a census or survey.  Children surviving up to the time of the same census or survey, again classified by age of mother.  Number of women by 5-year age groups, from the same census or survey. البيانات المطلوبة:  الأطفال الذين يولدون من أي وقت مضى مصنفة حسب الفئات العمرية 5 سنوات من الأم، من التعداد أو المسح.  الأطفال الباقين على قيد الحياة حتى وقت التعداد أو المسح، نفس مرة أخرى مصنفة حسب الفئة العمرية للأم.  عدد من النساء من الفئات العمرية من 5 سنوات، من نفس التعداد أو المسح. 12

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Assumptions:  The risk of a child dying is a function only of the age of the child.  Information on CEB and CS by age of mother are equally well reported.  Fertility levels and patterns have remained constant for at least 15 to 20 years before the census or survey. (United Nations (1990:23) says years.)  The age pattern of mortality is known.  الافتراضات: خطر الأطفال الذين يموتون من وظيفة فقط من عمر الطفل. وترد أيضا معلومات عن مجلس الرؤساء التنفيذيين، وخدمات العملاء حسب الفئة العمرية للأم. مستويات الخصوبة وأنماط ظلت ثابتة لمدة 15 إلى 20 على الأقل قبل التعداد أو المسح. (الأمم المتحدة (1990:23) يقول سنة). ومن المعروف الطراز العمري لوفيات. 13

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Assumptions:  There is no relationship between mortality of mothers and mortality of their children; between age of mother and parity; nor between age of mother and child mortality. That is, the risk of a child dying is a function only of the age of the child.  Age of mothers is reported correctly. الافتراضات: لا توجد علاقة بين معدل وفيات الأمهات ومعدل وفيات الأطفال؛ بين عمر الأم والتكافؤ؛ ولا بين عمر وفيات الأم والطفل. فخطر الأطفال الذين يموتون وظيفة فقط من عمر الطفل. ويقال لسن أمهات بشكل صحيح. 14

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Assumptions:  Completeness of reporting is the same for children ever born as for children surviving.  As the authors mention, the mortality model used has been well identified. الافتراضات: اكتمال الإبلاغ هو نفسه بالنسبة للأطفال المولودين من أي وقت مضى فيما يتعلق بالأطفال الباقين على قيد الحياة. كما يذكر الكتاب، نموذج معدل الوفيات المستخدمة قد حددت جيدا. 15

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Procedure:  Though Brass’ original procedure used a set of multipliers to convert proportions of children dead to life table x q 0 values … … Trussell’s equations are used in the Palloni- Heligman variation (United Nations 1990: chV-VI). The first step, in using equations based on United Nations models, is the calculation of mean age at maternity, or accepting the default value 16

Calculation of Mean Age at Maternity with Mbar.xls 17 Spreadsheet: Mbar.xls

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Program: QFIVE 18 Technique implemented in QFIVE (United Nations)

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Technique implemented in QFIVE (United Nations), as accessed through PASEX interface: 19 Spreadsheet: QFIVE.xls

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique After entering required data and running the QFIVE program (which automatically applies the calculations described above), several sets of child mortality rates will be generated. بعد إدخال البيانات المطلوبة وتشغيل برنامج قفيفي (الذي ينطبق تلقائياً الحسابات المذكورة أعلاه)، سيتم إنشاء عدة مجموعات من معدلات وفيات الأطفال. Each set includes the following measures: 1 q 0 infant mortality rates( معدلات وفيات الرضع) 4 q 1 probability of dying between ages 1 and 4 5 q 0 probability of dying between ages 0 and 5 20 Spreadsheet: QFIVE.xls

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Each set includes the following measures: وتتضمن كل مجموعة التدابير التالية: 1 q 0 infant mortality rates 4 q 1 probability of dying between ages 1 and 4 5 q 0 probability of dying between ages 0 and 5 Each measure is generated for several reference dates (that correspond to the age-specific input from which they are derived). يتم إنشاء كل تدبير لعدة تواريخ مرجعية (التي تقابل السن محددة المدخلات من التي يتم اشتقاق). And all measures (for all reference dates) are available for Coale Demeny and United Nations life table models. وتتوفر جميع التدابير (لكل مرجع التواريخ) لنماذج الجدول الحياة ديميني كالي والأمم المتحدة. 21 Spreadsheet: QFIVE.xls

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Spreadsheet: QFIVE.xls 22

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique The analyst then has two tasks: 1. Identify the measures corresponding to the regional model life table that best represents the mortality in the country under study. 2. Within the results falling in the appropriate life table model, identify reference dates associated with most reliable age-specific input data. 23 Spreadsheet: QFIVE.xls

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Choice of regional model life table may be based on: The results of a comparison of the consistency of estimates from another source survey (MORTPAK/COMPAR, COMPAR.xls, DHSQCOM.xls), Knowledge of the pattern of child mortality for the population in question, or A desire to be consistent with previous choice. 24

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Choice of reference date should consider the following: Measures for the most recent reference dates are based on information reported by females ages and Measures for reference dates furthest in the past are based on information reported by females ages and Data for these youngest and oldest reproductive age groups tend to be affected by quality issues 25

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Advantages:  A small amount of data, often collected in a census or survey, is required.  Mortality trend covering more than 1 years generated.  Estimates based on data on births for several years may be less affected by sampling error than methods based on data for only one year. 26

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique Limitations:  Estimates based on information from women ages 15-19, as well as ages 40 and above, should be interpreted with caution.  Results may be affected by changing fertility pattern.  Poor quality data will produce results of uncertain reliability.  Age misreporting affects the results since the children’s length of exposure to the risk of dying is inferred from their mothers’ ages. 27

Brass' Child Survivorship Technique and Development of Life Table Once infant mortality or under-5 mortality is calculated, MATCH may be used to calculate the rest of the life table. 28 Spreadsheet: MATCH.xls or MATCH_BS.xls