Post Election Vote Auditing Fritz Scheuren University of Chicago

If you did not check it, then it did go wrong! Murphy’s Corollary If you did not check it, then it did go wrong!

Outline of Remarks Systems Thinking Sample Vote Verification Forensic Statistical Additions Exit Polls Better Together

Systems Thinking Appreciation of Complexity No Single System Owner Political Party Roles Media Roles Voters’ Trust and Participation

Proactive Response Needed Benchmarking and Sharing What Works

and Voter Surveys Trained Pollworker Tested Ballot Certified Equipment Audited Votes and Voter Surveys Trustworthy Voting System Verified Identity Educated Voter Secured Tabulation Ishikawa (Fishbone) Diagram

Sample Vote Verification Key to Accountability Transparency and Randomness Rules of Evidence (Florida?) Build A Body of Practice

Forensic Statistical Additions? Exploring Official Results for anomalies Confirming Outliers and Inliers Linking Present to Past Patterns Developing Lessons Learned Data Bases, Persisting

Ohio Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs Ohio Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs. The Total (Trending 84 - 04) Cuyahoga Franklin Hamilton

Cuyahoga Scatterplot of Kerry Difference Between Actual and Predicted Vs. the Total (Grouping Precincts 00 - 04)

Exit Polls Warren Mitofsky Not a Substitute for Sample Audits A Weak Fitness for Use Standard Badly Misunderstood, Redirect and Replace

More on Refusal Versus Fraud Alternative – 2000 v. 2004 Are Precincts with Gaps Different? Data Does not Support this! Actual Results Are Similar not Different Scatterplot Shows Rough Similarity Distributions Virtually Identical Mitofsky “Bias in Refusals” Hypothesis Supported Instead

Still More on Predictive Value of Exit Poll v. Actual Results Another Look at Gap over time 2004 Exit Poll v. 2004 Actual Gap Versus 2000-2004 Change Fraud Hypothesis would Predict Gap is Correlated to Change Correlation only 0.03 However

Better Together Cooperation Already High Among Election Officials Bring in Skilled Outsiders, Statisticians. Computer Specialists, …, As You Have Include and Inform Critics Make Accountability Evident

Media and Marketing Approach Media Ahead of Time Seize this Timely Moment Stress New Tools, Learning Style Conduct Demonstration Sample Audits and Get the Word Out

National Election Scorecard National Voter (Customer) Survey Build on 2006 Ohio Proof of Concept Put “Horror Stories” in Perspective

Fully Auditable Election Prepare prior data ahead of time, so analysis can be real-time Continue to use Exit Polls but adjusting for the bias in them, if possible.

More Examples Create and train election officials in new process recording and Sample Vote Verification Standards Make sure software is fully tested and as close to tamper proof as possible

Many Thanks Scheuren@aol.com