The 2011 Welsh Referendum and Election Studies Richard Wyn Jones & Roger Scully Cardiff, 14 th January 2011

The Studies The 2011 Welsh Referendum Study (ESRC Grant RES ) The 2011 Welsh Election Study (ESRC Grant RES )

Outline of Today’s Session 1.Purpose of Today 2.Aims of the Studies 3.Method, Research Design & Timetable 4.Content of the Surveys 5.Discussion

Purpose of Today Raising Profile and Impact of the Studies Draw on Expertise to Improve the Studies Maximise value of the Studies for the research community

Purpose of the Studies: WRS Understanding Referendum Voting Behaviour: Why vote? Why vote Yes / No? - Impact of Party Cues - National Identities & Sentiments - Performance Politics Impact of the campaign on the referendum outcome Broader contributions to design/conduct of referendum studies? Good value and high impact study

Purpose of the Studies: WES Understanding Devolved Election Voting Behaviour: - Electoral participation - Vote Choice - Theories of Voting: Valence & the Three-Wales Model Impact of devolved election campaigns Public attitudes to devolution: - Structure and consistency of public preferences - Performance assessments and relationship to fundamental attitudes - Effect of attitudes to devolution on devolved election voting behaviour Value, impact, and continuity with previous studies

Method & Research Design WRS & WES deploy similar methods & designs: - Sample of voters (fieldwork: YouGov) - Pre and Post waves, with panel data - Pre: sample of c.2000; drawn on ‘rolling’ basis through 30 days prior to referendum / election (ie. c.500 per week) - Post: after referendum / election, all ‘Pre’ wave respondents approached; ‘top-up’ element to raise overall Post sample to 2000

Timetable: WRS JanuaryConsultation event in Cardiff on survey content End-JanFinalisation, pre- & post-referendum questionnaires; WRS/WES Website Feb – 2 nd MarchPre-referendum wave fieldwork (30 days) 3 rd MarchREFERENDUM HELD March Post-referendum wave fieldwork JuneCardiff Seminar on Findings JulyLondon Seminar; Data placed on website SeptemberDeposit of final datasets with UK Data Archive

Timetable: WES JanuaryConsultation event in Cardiff on survey content MarchFinalisation, pre- & post-election questionnaires April – 4 th MayPre-election wave fieldwork (30 days) 5 th May ELECTION HELD MayPost-election wave fieldwork SeptemberCardiff Seminar on Findings; Data placed on website & deposited with UK Data Archive OctoberLondon Seminar

The Surveys, 1 Drafts in place for Pre waves for WRS and (almost) WES Many, but far from all, Pre questions also to be asked in Post waves. Post waves to have room for additional questions / subjects Likely additional subjects for Post waves: -Experience of voting in the referendum / election -Attitudes to the process of voting -The AV referendum

The Surveys, 2: WRS Pre Wave (Draft) Sections of Survey: 1.Media consumption & interest in politics 2.Referendum Voting: likelihood to vote & vote intention 3.Campaign perceptions 4.Perceptions of referendum vote implications 5.Political issues & govt performance 6.Attitudes to parties & leaders 7.Attitudes to devolution 8.Respondents: Identities & national sentiments, NAW voting intention, past vote recall 9.Political knowledge quiz

The Surveys, 3: WES Pre Wave (Draft) Sections of Survey: 1.Media consumption & interest in politics 2.Voting in the NAW election: likelihood to vote, vote intention, past vote recall 3.Campaign perceptions 4.Political issues & govt performance 5.Attitudes to parties & leaders 6.Attitudes to devolution 7.Respondents: Identities & national sentiments 8.Political knowledge quiz