Dynamical Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and the Role of Indian Ocean K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder Dynamical.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Click to edit Master title style Timeseries of dynamical and precipitation indices Black: observations; RGB: ensemble members for each start date case.

Advertisements

The monsoon-ENSO teleconnection and different ENSO regimes in a flux corrected future climate Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo IPSL/CGAM workshop.

VEGETATION FEEDBACK AND DROUGHTS Russell Bird – 3 rd Year Atmospheric Science.

Role of Air-Sea Interaction on the Predictability of Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation (TISO) Xiouhua Fu International Pacific Research Center (IPRC)

Mark Cane Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO): An Introduction.

ENSO-Monsoon relationships in current and future climates Andrew Turner, Pete Inness and Julia Slingo The University of Reading Department of Meteorology.

Seasonal Climate Predictability over NAME Region Jae-Kyung E. Schemm CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA NAME Science Working Group Meeting 5 Puerto Vallarta, Mexico Nov.

Recent S/I Prediction Activities at IRI. IRI Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) Simon Mason.

Indian Monsoon, Indian Ocean dipoles and ENSO Pascal Terray LOCEAN/IPSL, France Fabrice Chauvin CNRM/Météo-France, France Sébastien Dominiak LOCEAN/IPSL,

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.

El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Ocean-atmosphere interactions.

The 1997/98 ENSO event. Multivariate ENSO Index Index is based on 6 parameters relevant to phase.

Coupled and Forced Solutions of MJO: Implication for Prediction Bin Wang, Xiouhua Fu, Tim Li University of Hawaii.

Processes that enhance predictability of surface temperature in southeastern South America during May-July Unidad de Ciencias de la Atmósfera – Facultad.

Impact of Sea Surface Temperature and Soil Moisture on Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over the Sahel Wassila M. Thiaw and Kingtse C. Mo Climate Prediction.

Pacific vs. Indian Ocean warming: How does it matter for global and regional climate change? Joseph J. Barsugli Sang-Ik Shin Prashant D. Sardeshmukh NOAA-CIRES.

1 Assessment of the CFSv2 real-time seasonal forecasts for 2013 Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Tropical Pacific Ocean forcing of the decadal shift in global precipitation Lyon, Barnston, DeWitt, Climate Dynamics (revised)

Coupled GCM The Challenges of linking the atmosphere and ocean circulation.

Using a novel coupled-model framework to reduce tropical rainfall biases Nicholas Klingaman Steve Woolnough, Linda Hirons National Centre for Atmospheric.

International CLIVAR Working Group for Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) Ben Kirtman (Co-Chair WGSIP) George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere.

IRI, 5 May, 2004 Dynamical Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and the Role of Indian Ocean K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado,

Challenges in Prediction of Summer Monsoon Rainfall: Inadequacy of the Tier-2 Strategy Bin Wang Department of Meteorology and International Pacific Research.

Issues in Ocean-Atmosphere-Land-Ice Coupling Ocean Integration in Earth System Prediction Capability Data Assimilation University of Maryland September.

FORECAST SST TROP. PACIFIC (multi-models, dynamical and statistical) TROP. ATL, INDIAN (statistical) EXTRATROPICAL (damped persistence)

On the Causes of the 1930s Dust Bowl Siegfried Schubert, Max Suarez, Philip Pegion, Randal Koster and Julio Bacmeister Global Modeling and Assimilation.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 22,

Climate Change in the Yaqui Valley David Battisti University of Washington 1.Climatological Annual Cycle –Winter vs. Summer 2.Variability(Winter) –ENSO.

The Influence of Tropical-Extratropical Interactions on ENSO Variability Michael Alexander NOAA/Earth System Research Lab.

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability Andrew Turner, Pete Inness, Julia Slingo.

Verification of IRI Forecasts Tony Barnston and Shuhua Li.

CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate.

Ben Kirtman University of Miami-RSMAS Disentangling the Link Between Weather and Climate.

Indian Ocean warming – its extent, and impact on the monsoon and marine productivity Western Indian Ocean experienced strong, monotonous warming during.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 31 August 2009.

Dr Mark Cresswell Statistical Forecasting [Part 2] 69EG6517 – Impacts & Models of Climate Change.

1 Daily modes of the South Asian monsoon variability and their relation with SST Deepthi Achuthavarier Work done with V. Krishnamurthy Acknowledgments.

Eastern Pacific feedbacks and the forecast of extreme El Niño events

Oceanic forcing of Sahel rainfall on interannual to interdecadal time scales A. Giannini (IRI) R. Saravanan (NCAR) and P. Chang (Texas A&M) IRI for climate.

Workshop on Tropical Biases, 28 May 2003 CCSM CAM2 Tropical Simulation James J. Hack National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, Colorado USA Collaborators:

El Niño Forecasting Stephen E. Zebiak International Research Institute for climate prediction The basis for predictability Early predictions New questions.

1 The Impact of Mean Climate on ENSO Simulation and Prediction Xiaohua Pan Bohua Huang J. Shukla George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere.

LASG/IAP Collaboration between CLIVAR/AAMP and GEWEX/MAHASRI A proposal to foster interaction l Coordinated GCM/RCM Process study on Monsoon ISO l Multi-RCM.

Multi-Model Ensembles for Climate Attribution Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NOAA Acknowledgements: Bhaskar Jha; Marty Hoerling; Ming Ji & OGP;

Exploring the Possibility to Forecast Annual Mean Temperature with IPCC and AMIP Runs Peitao Peng Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Acknowledgements: Bhaskar.

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology Understanding and predicting the contrast.

SASCOF 2010 Météo-France GCM forecasts JP. Céron – Météo-France

Tropical Oceanic Influences on Global Climate Prashant. D. noaa.gov Climate Diagnostics Center, CIRES, University of Colorado and Physical.

Indo-Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Influences on Failed Consecutive Rainy Seasons over Eastern Africa** Andy Hoell 1 and Chris Funk 1,2 Contact:

Hydro-Climate Course March 2004, CU, Boulder Asian Monsoon… K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow

On Climate Predictability of the Summer Monsoon Rainfall Bin Wang Department of Meteorology and IPRC University of Hawaii Acknowledging contribution from.

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

Multidecadal simulations of the Indian monsoon in SPEEDY- AGCM and in a coupled model Annalisa Bracco, Fred Kucharski and Franco Molteni The Abdus Salam.

MICHAEL A. ALEXANDER, ILEANA BLADE, MATTHEW NEWMAN, JOHN R. LANZANTE AND NGAR-CHEUNG LAU, JAMES D. SCOTT Mike Groenke (Atmospheric Sciences Major)

1 An Assessment of the CFS real-time forecasts for Wanqiu Wang, Mingyue Chen, and Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NOAA.

NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.

Climate Mission Outcome A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient.

Seasonal Outlook for 2010 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall D. S. Pai Director, Long Range Forecasting South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF -1) April.

The Great 20 th Century Drying of Africa Ninth Annual CCSM Workshop Climate Variability Working Group 9 July 2004, Santa Fe Jim Hurrell, Marty Hoerling,

1/39 Seasonal Prediction of Asian Monsoon: Predictability Issues and Limitations Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center

ESSL Holland, CCSM Workshop 0606 Predicting the Earth System Across Scales: Both Ways Summary:Rationale Approach and Current Focus Improved Simulation.

Indian Ocean-Atmosphere Coupling: Its role on ENSO and Monsoon Variability C. Perigaud (JPL), D. Neelin (UCLA), and J. McCreary (IPRC)

Predictability and predictions of Indian summer Monsoon rainfall using dynamical models Michael K. Tippett (IRI), Andrew Robertson (IRI), Makarand Kulkarni.

Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) Suryachandra A. Rao Colloborators: Hemant, Subodh, Samir, Ashish & Kiran Dynamical Seasonal Prediction.

1 The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP November 7,

Summer Monsoon – Global Ocean Interactions Ben Kirtman George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies Acknowledgements: Randy Wu and.

Indian Monsoon Variability and Predictability K

Interactions between the Responses of

Seasonal Prediction Activities at the South African Weather Service

Predictability of Indian monsoon rainfall variability

Presentation transcript:

Dynamical Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and the Role of Indian Ocean K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder Dynamical Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and the Role of Indian Ocean K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder Martin P. Hoerling Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder and Balaji Rajagopalan University of Colorado, Boulder

Current Practices of Dynamical Monsoon Rainfall Prediction  2-tiered approach wherein SSTs are predicted first using a coupled model and then the AGCMs are forced using these SST fields  Use persistent SSTs to run AGCMs  Dynamical Downscaling using Regional Climate Models taking lateral boundary values from AGCM Simulations

Skills of the Present Generation of AGCMs (Reproduced from the IRI Website)

We set out to examine the skills of monsoon rainfall in detail by involving long simulations made using observed SSTs with a suite of multi-model, multi-member ensemble runs.

Research Questions..?  How skillful are the AGCMs in simulating Monsoon Rainfall over the Indian region?  Is specifying SSTs a constraint on realistic monsoon simulations?  How sensitive are monsoon simulations to initial conditions?  What is the impact of coupling on Monsoon-ENSO relationships?  Are the ENSO related western Indian Ocean SSTs acting as negative feed-back on Monsoon-ENSO relations?

Details of AGCMs Used S.No.ModelResolution Ens. Size Run Length 1ECHAM42.8x ECHAM32.8x GFDL2.5x NASA2.8x ECPC1.8x MRF (NCEP)2.8x ARPEGE2.8x CCM32.8x CAM22.8x

Climatology of Monsoon Rainfall

Monsoon-ENSO Relation in AGCM Simulations

PDFs of Correlations (1) Obs. Vs. Model ENS (2) PERPROG

Impact of Initial Conditions on Monsoon Simulations

Monsoon-ENSO Teleconnections: Coupled vs. Uncoupled Models

GOGA: Obs SSTs globally DTEPOGA: Obs SSTs in Deep Tropical East Pacific and Climatological SSTs elsewhere DTEPOGA_MLM: Same as DTEPOGA but a Mixed Layer Model used in the Indian Ocean

Progressive Improvement in Monsoon Rainfall Simulation Skills: Progressive Improvement in Monsoon Rainfall Simulation Skills: 1. Un-coupled AMIP 2.Un-coupled AMIP only in eastern tropical Pacific and Climatological SSTs elsewhere 3.AMIP in the Pacific and Mixed Layer Model in the Indian Ocean

Summary  The skills of current generation AGCMs in simulating monsoon rainfall in India even when forced with observed SSTs are very low.  However, there appears to be much higher predictive potential as evidenced by the large PERPROG skills.  No clear hint of higher skills either for models with better monsoon climatology or when multi-model-super ensembles are involved.  Specification of SSTs in the Indian Ocean appears to be the main reason for the low-skills.  An interactive ocean-atmosphere in the Indian Ocean (using even a simple mixed layer ocean model) produces more realistic monsoon simulations compared to specifying actual or climatological SSTs.  General belief that the ENSO related SSTs in the Indian Ocean (particularly the western Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea) might act as a negative feedback on Monsoon-ENSO teleconnections appears to be wrong based on the above observations.Indian Ocean  In general the monsoon-ENSO links are much stronger in fully coupled models compared to the AGCMs forced with observed/predicted SSTs.  The 2-tiered approach currently being pursued in seasonal forecasting needs immediate revision to achieve higher forecast skills for the Indian region. We also believe, this might be true for some other countries located in the warm pool region in the west Pacific and the Indian Ocean.