Simulation of Infectious Diseases Using Agent-Based Versus System Dynamics Models Omar Alam

Problem definition People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people. How to study this infection dynamics?

Problem definition People contract diseases. Infected people can can infect healthy people. How to study this infection dynamics? Simulation of infection models

Solution! AB: Statecharts FSD using CBD

Epidemic models Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al.

SIR model Source: Deterministic Modeling of Infectious Diseases: Theory and Models. Trottier et al.

SIR model Kermack-Mckendric model Used to study plaque in London (1665-1666), and Bombay in 1906. Cholera in London 1865

SIR model Source: http://blog.iseesystems.com/stella-ithink/limits-to-growth/

SIR model Beta: infection rate Alpha: infection period Source: http://jsxgraph.uni-bayreuth.de/wiki/index.php/Epidemiology:_The_SIR_model

SIR model

SIR model Initial population SM1 SM2 SN S Initial infected I IA IN Infection rate RM Recovery rate R

SIR model Population: 1000, Initial infection 4, Infection period: 3, infection rate 0.2

A statechart for each individual Statecharts approach A statechart for each individual Multiple statecharts Enable moving

Statecharts approach: architecture

Statecharts approach: architecture Controller

Statecharts approach: architecture Creates, initializes, and changes status Controller

Statecharts approach: architecture Creates, initializes, and changes status Controller Updates location

Statecharts approach: results recovered susceptible infected Population: 1000, initial infection 4, infection period 3

Statecharts approach: results Population: 500, initial infection 2, infection period 3