WRAP Emission Inventory Status For the Attribution of Haze Project Workgroup Presented by Jeffrey Stocum Oregon DEQ Emissions Inventory Specialist as a representative of the WRAP Emissions Forum March 29 th 2004

Available EIs WRAP Interim 2002 Point and Area Source Emissions Estimates prepared by E.H. Pechan Mobile Sources Emission Inventory prepared by Environ Dust Emission Inventory prepared by Environ

Interim 2002 EI Often referred to as the “like 2002” EI This EI is a Point and Area Source inventory for criteria pollutants The official 2002 EIs submitted to EPA and then to WRAP by the states will not be available until fall Too late for this AOH project

Interim 2002 EI con’t These official 2002 EIs will be input into the Emissions Data Management System (EDMS) between June 2004 and Sept 2004 when the EDMS is scheduled to become operational Currently the EDMS project is in the comment period concerning the Hardware and Software Development Plan

Point Sources Began with Ver. 3 of the 1996 WRAP point source database Electricity Generating Units (EGUs) emissions are based on 2002 Emissions Tracking System/Continuous Emissions Monitoring (ETS/CEM) and 2002 EIA-767 estimates for large plants that submit to that system Copper smelters in Arizona and New Mexico provided 2002 SO 2 emissions

Point Sources Con’t Non-smelter, non utility sources (i.e. everything else) were projected to 2002 using growth factors and Integrated Assessment System (IAS) model algorithms But… The 100 largest SO2 facilities estimates were replaced using 2000 facility level estimates submitted by the states gleaned from the Pechan milestone report

Area Sources Doesn’t include mobile and fire sources [ag. burning, wildfire, or prescribed burning] which were covered by other projects Have been projected from the 1999 NEI Version 3 E.H. Pechan used the Economic Growth Analysis System (EGAS) 4.0 to provide growth factors to produce a 2002 inventory

Environ Mobile EI Emissions were estimated for the 1996 base year and for four future years- 2003, 2008, 2013, 2018 Thus the 2003 year will be combined with the Interim 2002 Point and Area EI The Mobile Sources EI covered –On Road Mobile –Off Road Mobile –Road Dust Emissions

Mobile EI con’t Emissions were estimated for the average weekday in each of the 4 seasons Pollutants: PM 10, PM 2.5, NOX, SOX, VOC, CO, NH 3, SO 4, OC and EC CARB supplied California’s county level Mobile EI using EMFAC2000 and OFFROAD

On Road Mobile Sources Vehicle classes broken into light duty (passenger cars, motorcycles, and trucks <8500 lbs) and heavy duty vehicles Separated gasoline and diesel Emissions estimated by type of roadway –Rural/Urban –Interstate, Principal Arterial, Minor arterial, Major collector, Minor Collector, & Local

On Road Mobile Sources con’t Utilized EPA MOBILE6 –Many default inputs were updated by various states RVP, vehicle registrations, temperatures, I/M prog. EPA PART5 used for particulates –There were many modifications made that are detailed in the report

On Road Mobile Sources con’t March 2001 M6 draft version used for the 1996 year EI Activity is Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) –From National Emissions Trends (NET) ver. 3 –At the county and SCC level (vehicle type and roadway type) Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, Nevada, & Washington provided updated VMT

On Road Mobile Sources con’t

On Road Mobile Future Years Sept 2001 M6 draft version used for all future years (03, 08, 13) VMT Projection –Accomplished through the use of VMT growth factors developed from EPA’s Heavy Duty Vehicle rulemaking –Utilized all updated MOBILE6 information that was received from the states

On Road Mobile Future Years con’t

Off Road Mobile Sources Covers the off road sources such as –Railroads –Aircraft –Agricultural equipment –Lawn and garden equipment –Recreational marine vessels and personal watercraft –Construction equipment –Airport ground service equipment –Commercial marine vessels

Off Road Mobile Sources con’t Utilized NONROAD 2000 Model for the 1996 base year and the NONROAD 2002 model for the 03, 08, 13 and 18 Commercial marine, locomotives, aircraft are not included in the NONROAD model and are estimated using traditional NEI methods

Off Road Mobile Sources con’t Commercial Marine –Within 25 miles of the coastline –Coos Bay -OR, Columbia River Ports, Puget Sound ports, Snake River barging –Emissions = ∑ LF * EF * Ship Power * Time –CARB provided California Emissions

Off Road Mobile Sources con’t Locomotives –1996 NET Fuel use * EFs Aircraft –Utilized FAA Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) 9 large hubs –Applied to smaller airport aircraft traffic throughout 12 WRAP states –CARB supplied CA aircraft emissions

Off Road Mobile Future Years The growth factors used in the EPA NONROAD2002 model were deemed too large for projections

Off Road Mobile Future Years con’t ENVIRON developed state level growth factors so that state to state growth factors could be taken into account for estimating future year emissions

Road Dust Paved and Unpaved portions Original 1996 EI from National Emissions Trends (NET 96) When the initial 2018 work was completed for modeling it was determined that there were too many inconsistencies resulting in sharp changes in emissions at county (artificial) boundaries

Road Dust con’t

Old 96 inventory was adjusted- Paved road reentrained road dust from PART5 Unpaved based on EPA’s AP-42 road dust emission equation with adjustments –Revisions to State Average Silt Content –Revisions to Average Daily Traffic Volume (ADTV) Assumptions –Application of Transport Fractions (Pace 2002)

Road Dust con’t

Paved road dust emissions increase by about three percent/year from 1996 to 2018 Unpaved road dust emissions are projected to decrease between 1996 and 2018, by about 0.75% per year Overall road dust PM 10 emissions increase by about 6% from 1996 to 2018.

Summary Attribution of Haze Emission Inventories We have… Interim 2002 Point and Area source EI grown from 1996 (Point) and 1999 (Area) 2003 On Road Mobile EI 2003 Off Road Mobile EI Any year Road Dust EI based on extrapolation between 1996 and 2018