TimeDays Outlooks Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM) and Lans Rothfusz FACETs: Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats Space Regional State.

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Presentation transcript:

TimeDays Outlooks Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM) and Lans Rothfusz FACETs: Forecasting A Continuum of Environmental Threats Space Regional State Local Watches Warnings Event Hours Minutes Continuous, reliable Probabilistic Hazard Continuous, reliable Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) from seasons to minutes Seasonal Months NSSL Contributions Courtesy Dave Stenrud

Convective-scale Warn-on-Forecast Vision: Probabilistic convective-scale analysis and forecast system Updated frequently and providing confidence information with focus on 0 to 1 h time frame

NSSL/SPC Realtime CA-Ensemble Plans (pending HPC allocation) Develop a small (~8 member) realtime, CONUS scale, convection-allowing ensemble – no data assimilation, focus on 12-36h (SPC Day1) forecast period Close, daily collaboration with SPC to promote forecaster engagement and iterative progress on ensemble design, data mining, visualization, and post-processing (building on success of NSSL-WRF) Collaborate with EMC, GSD, and perhaps others to strategize about ensemble design, relevance to HRRRE from a technical-design and forecaster-readiness perspective Why NSSL and SPC? - Long history of contributions to ensemble prediction systems - HWT, strong R2O and O2R track record - Lessons learned from working with CAPS on CA- EPSs (2007-current)