Reshaping the Medical Workforce in Scotland Update to NDPIG – July 2010 Alastair Cook Senior Medical Officer SGHD Senior Medical Officer SGHD

OUTLINE CONTEXT – MEDICAL WORKFORCE CHANGE IN LAST DECADE CONTEXT – MEDICAL WORKFORCE CHANGE IN LAST DECADE PROJECTED MEDICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND PROJECTED MEDICAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND RESHAPING WORKFORCE IN SCOTLAND RESHAPING WORKFORCE IN SCOTLAND ISSUES FOR PAEDIATRICS ISSUES FOR PAEDIATRICS

UK MEDICAL SCHOOL INTAKES

Estimated annual retirements from NHS in Scotland and England

PARTICIPATION RATES BY CONSULTANTS SHOWN BY GENDER Participation rate totalmalefemale

SUPPLY Vs DEMAND (AS DETERMINED BY PAYBILL)

RESHAPING MEDICAL WORKFORCE IMPROVE PATIENT CARE BY INCREASING PROPORTION DELIVERED BY TRAINED DOCTORS IMPROVE PATIENT CARE BY INCREASING PROPORTION DELIVERED BY TRAINED DOCTORS REDUCE RELIANCE ON DOCTORS IN TRAINING FOR SERVICE DELIVERY REDUCE RELIANCE ON DOCTORS IN TRAINING FOR SERVICE DELIVERY DELIVER APPROPRIATE SKILL MIX ACROSS CLINICAL TEAMS DELIVER APPROPRIATE SKILL MIX ACROSS CLINICAL TEAMS CAPITALISE ON THE “BULGE” OF TRAINEES POST MMC CAPITALISE ON THE “BULGE” OF TRAINEES POST MMC

SPECIALTY ESTIMATED RETIREMENTS EXPECTED CCTs PROJECTED OVERSUPPLY EMERGENCY MEDICINE ANAESTHESIA DIAGNOSTIC SPECIALTIES MEDICAL SPECIALTIES SURGICAL SPECIALTIES MENTAL HEALTH SPECIALTIES OBS & GYNAE PAEDIATRICS GENERAL PRACTICE PUBLIC HEALTH & OCC. MEDICINE TOTAL THE BULGE

RESHAPING OBJECTIVES WORK WITH BOARDS AND REGIONS ON MEDICAL WORKFORCE PROJECTIONS WORK WITH BOARDS AND REGIONS ON MEDICAL WORKFORCE PROJECTIONS CONSULT ON AND SET TRAINING INTAKE NUMBERS CONSULT ON AND SET TRAINING INTAKE NUMBERS CO-ORDINATE BOARD AND REGIONAL PLANNING OF TRANSITION TO RESHAPED WORKFORCE CO-ORDINATE BOARD AND REGIONAL PLANNING OF TRANSITION TO RESHAPED WORKFORCE

PAEDIATRIC ISSUES BULGE ? BULGE ? NES FIGURES 142 CCTS TO FEB 2015 NES FIGURES 142 CCTS TO FEB 2015 TPD SURVEY WEST AND NORTH SHOWS ONLY 46 OF PREDICTED 59 (N & W) BY 2013 TPD SURVEY WEST AND NORTH SHOWS ONLY 46 OF PREDICTED 59 (N & W) BY 2013 COMMUNITY CHILD HEALTH COMMUNITY CHILD HEALTH 178 (138WTE) SGAS DOCTORS AT (138WTE) SGAS DOCTORS AT 2009 ATTRITION – LOSSES AFTER ST1/2 TO GP OR OTHER SPECIALTIES ATTRITION – LOSSES AFTER ST1/2 TO GP OR OTHER SPECIALTIES

PAEDIATRIC ISSUES (LONGER TERM) ATTRACTIVENESS OF SPECIALTY ATTRACTIVENESS OF SPECIALTY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VERY SPECIALIST SERVICE, DGH SERVICES AND COMMUNITY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN VERY SPECIALIST SERVICE, DGH SERVICES AND COMMUNITY SUSTAINABLE WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS THAT ALLOW TRAINING QUALITY SUSTAINABLE WORKFORCE SOLUTIONS THAT ALLOW TRAINING QUALITY

SOLUTIONS ? NEW PATTERNS OF WORKING FOR CCT TRAINED DOCTORS NEW PATTERNS OF WORKING FOR CCT TRAINED DOCTORS DECOUPLING TO ALLOW REPLACEMENT OF SGAS DOCS DECOUPLING TO ALLOW REPLACEMENT OF SGAS DOCS TRAINING OF ACUTE PAEDIATRICIANS TRAINING OF ACUTE PAEDIATRICIANS TRAINING OF OTHER SPECIALTIES – GP, ACUTE PHYSICIANS, EM DOCTORS IN MANAGING PAEDS EMERGENCIES TRAINING OF OTHER SPECIALTIES – GP, ACUTE PHYSICIANS, EM DOCTORS IN MANAGING PAEDS EMERGENCIES MULTIDISCIPLINARY SOLUTIONS MULTIDISCIPLINARY SOLUTIONS