WCRP update and feedback CEOS-CGMS WG Climate EUMETSAT 5-7 March 2014 M. Rixen

Mission & Objectives World Climate Research Programme supports climate-related decision making and adaptation planning by coordinating research required to improve (1)climate predictions and (2)understanding of human influence on climate “for use in an increasing range of practical applications of direct relevance, benefit and value to society” (WCRP Strategic Framework ).

Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)

Proposed Research Strategy: At the simplest level, Future Earth must answer fundamental questions about how and why the global environment is changing, what are likely future changes, what the implications are for humans and other species, and what choices can be made to reduce harmful risks and vulnerabilities, enhance resilience, and create prosperous futures. ICSU’s Future Earth conceptual framework Call for proposal: Fast Track Initiatives and Cluster Activities Deadline 4 April 2014 – need some GEC core project umbrella

WCRP 4 th International Reanalysis Conference 7-11 May 2012 Silver Spring, Maryland USA 270+ participants 42 countries Agency Priorities: An Open Panel Discussion with Conference Participants Quantitative Uncertainty Estimation: families of reanalyses Qualitative Uncertainty Estimation: reanalysis.org, climatedataguide.ucar.edu Earth System Coupling: interdisciplinarity, synergies between communities Reanalyses, Observations and Stewardship: seamlessness of data discovery and access, ESGF Next: workshop on input observations for reanalyses, ECMWF (FP7 ERA-CLIM2 deliverable)

CMIP5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 2+ Petabyte on Earth System Grid Federation 59 models, 24 groups Many studies contributing to the IPCC AR5 report Already 300+ papers Other modeling efforts within WCRP (Seasonal-to-interannual, Decadal, Regional-CORDEX) could likely follow similar schemes in the future Green coupled carbon- cycle climate models Red matches CMIP3 experimental suite A rich set of modeling experiments, drawn from several predecessor MIPs, focuses on model evaluation, projections, and understanding

Key to the success of CMIP Sustained support for critical infrastructure –Community-developed metadata conventions “Climate-Forecast” metadata convention (CF) –Software to ensure data complies to conventions Climate Model Output Writer (CMOR) –Advancing state-of-the-art data delivery methods Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) A highly collaborative spirit within WCRP

Federation connectedness means the user does not have to know where the data resides and critical data is replicated

Earth System Grid Federation JSC34-WMAC2: Earth System Grid Federation to become WCRP main mechanism for exchanging data (climate simulations+observations+reanalyses) in the next decade, including core projects WGCM: a new Infrastructure Panel to maintain standards and metadata across MIPS

CORDEX Data being published on ESGF

© Crown copyright Met Office Most leading seasonal forecasts models now included in CHFP 13 systems ‘CMIP for seasonal’ Migration to ESGF underway (FP7 EU SPECS projects)

Intercomparison Models-Observations Coordinated with CMIP are parallel efforts to collect and make available observationally-based products Obs4MIPs A pilot effort to improve the connection between data experts and scientists involved in climate model evaluation. Aligned with CMIP5, with encouragement from the WGCM, WGNE, WDAC. NASA and the U.S. DOE have initiated the project with significant contributions of appropriate NASA products. This is expanding to other products from other agencies. Communities to contribute data to Obs4MIPs such as cryosphere, biogeochemistry, etc.

Jet Propulsion Laboratory California Institute of Technology Model and Observation Overlap Initial Data Sets and Ongoing Efforts AIRS (≥ 300 hPa) Atm temp profile Specific humidity profile MLS (< 300 hPa) Atm temp profile Specifc humidity profile QuikSCATOcean surface winds TESOzone profile AMSR-ESST TOPEX/JASONSSH CERESTOA radiation fluxes TRMMTotal precipitation MODIS Cloud fraction Net primary production 1 ~4 1 ~6 1 3 Present efforts are working to provide: CFMIP cloud-related products (much of this completed) MISR (land) and MODIS (ocean) AOD Sea Ice (NSIDC) CALIPSO Aerosol Optical Extinction Profile CERES surface radiation budget MODIS Land (e.g. albedo, LAI, FPAR) Continued Discussions with ESA EUMETSAT & other groups to expand holdings. Initial Phase

WDAC WDAC3, Galway, Ireland, May 2014: special session on (sea and land) fluxes: importance for ESM, coupling, … ECV inventory being developed jointly by CEOS, CGMS and WMO (WCRP+ GCOS) In prep: doc on best practices for data set assessments (+maturity index) and publications (DOI) obs4MIPs panel to identify suitable data sets for inclusion in ESGF/obs4MIPS and develop guidelines –obs4MIPs-CMIP workshop: 29 Apr – 1 May, NASA HQ: atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, carbon, chemistry, radiation, simulators, etc ana4MIPs parallel effort to bring reanalyses into ESGF

Key points Systematic errors need to be removed as early as possible to improve the science value chain Observational uncertainty: key information for climate science (reanalysis, initialized predictions, model development, verification, uncertainty cascading, decision making) obs4MIPs: great opportunity for obs provider to make impact and get feedback, exploitation of CDRs by WCRP community, IPCC AR6, …

Thank you for your attention!