North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg 24-26 September 2012 1/15 Impact of initial conditions with respect to external forcing in the decadal predictions:

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Presentation transcript:

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 Impact of initial conditions with respect to external forcing in the decadal predictions: a sensitivity experiment Susanna Corti ECMWF With contributions from Antje Weisheimer Tim Palmer Linus Magnusson and Magdalena Balmaseda

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 10-year integrations from: A 1965 initial conditions, observed forcing (GHG & aerosols) from 1965 (control1) B 1995 initial conditions, observed forcing (GHG & aerosols) from 1995 (control2) C 1965 initial conditions, observed forcing from 1995 D 1995 initial conditions, observed forcing from 1965 By comparing A with D, and B with C, we have two estimates of decadal predictability (arising from having different initial conditions and the same GHG forcing). By comparing A with C, and B with D, we have two estimates of the impact of GHG forcings (since initial conditions are the same). SWAP Experiment

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 Models ECMWF coupled system (SYS4+LIM2) (5 ensemble meembers) KNMI EC-EARTH (3 ensemble members) MPI-M (5 ensemble members) Met Office HadCM3 (3 ensemble members) AC 1995DB B minus A= signal B minus C = Initial conditions Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions D minus A = Initial conditions C minus A = Forcing B minus D = Forcing

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September / AC 1995DB Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions Impact of boundary (forcing) versus initial conditions in decadal prediction experiments with the ECMWF system by swapping ICs and BCs for two different decades B minus A 1995to1996 minus 1965to1966 First year B minus DB minus C C minus AD minus A Impact of boundary (forcing) versus initial conditions ECMWF MODEL

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September / AC 1995DB Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions Impact of boundary (forcing) versus initial conditions in decadal prediction experiments with the ECMWF system by swapping ICs and BCs for two different decades B minus A 1995to2000 minus 1965to year means B minus DB minus C C minus AD minus A Impact of boundary (forcing) versus initial conditions ECMWF MODEL

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 KNMI 5-year means MPI-M 5y-year means HadCM3 5yrs Impact of boundary (forcing) versus initial conditions AC 1995DB Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 AMOC 2 decades climatology & anomaly 1995to2005 minus 1965to1975 All models ECMWF KNMI MPI-M HadCM3

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September / to2005 minus 1965to to2000 minus 1965to1970 ECMWFKNMIMPI-MHadCM3

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 D time d(F) Distance D(t)=|A-B| D(t)=|B-C| or |D-A| Impact of Initialisation D(t)=|B-D| or |C-A| Impact of Forcing AC 1995DB d(I)

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 d time Impact of Initialisation Impact of Forcing AC 1995DB d(F) d(I) T-cross

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 AMOC –Forcing vs. Initial Conditions all models KNM I HadCM3 MPI-MECMWF 1965 HadCM3 ECMWF KNMI MPI-M AC 1995DB Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 Global SSTs KNM I HadCM3 MPI-MECMWF 1965 HadCM3 ECMWF KNMI MPI-M AC 1995DB Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 NORTH ATLANTIC SSTs KNM I HadCM3 MPI-MECMWF 1965 HadCM3 ECMWF KNMI MPI-M AC 1995DB Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 Southern Indian Ocean SSTs KNM I HadCM3 MPI-MECMWF 1965 HadCM3 ECMWF KNMI MPI-M AC 1995DB Boundary conditions (forcing) Initial conditions

North Atlantic Climate variability - Hamburg September /15 Summary SSTs: Results from the SWAP experiment indicate that over time scales longer than about 1 year predictability of SSTs arises mainly from the forcing. The correct initialisation has a strong impact up to about 1 year on a global domain, but it seems to affect the predictability over the North Atlantic up to 3/4 years. The high sensitivity to initial condition over the North Atlantic is common to all models investigated. AMOC: In all model considered the impact of forcing is negligible when compared with that of initial conditions. Caveat: The band of uncertainty associated with the natural variability is (at least in the case of SSTs) big.