How frequent are biotic worlds? The Impact of Kepler on the likelihood of Extra-terrestrial Life Amri Wandel - Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem.

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How frequent are biotic worlds? The Impact of Kepler on the likelihood of Extra-terrestrial Life Amri Wandel - Hebrew Univ. of Jerusalem

ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel How frequent are terrestrial exo-planets?  Do other stars have planets?  If so, are they Earthlike?  Are they in the Habitable zone?  The exo-planet boom  What has changed with Kepler? 2

ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel Star types suitable for the evolution of life  Too big(M>1.5Mo)- Main Sequence lifetime insufficient for the evolution of life  Too small (< 0.5 Mo) - eruptive (planetary temperature instable)  This leaves ~ 10% of all stars. 3

עוברי כוכבים ו ” מערכות שמש ” בערפילית אוריון עוברי כוכבים ו ” מערכות שמש ” בערפילית אוריון Planetary disks being born in Orion

5 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel The Doppler method V * ~m p a p -1/2 51 Peg V * ~m p a p -1/2 51 Peg

6 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel Doppler method is biased towards massive,near planets

Observatories in Space SIM Kepler Darwin CoRoT 7 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel

The transit method The inclination must be very close to 90° 8 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel

HD HD Planet mass Planet radius Planet density 9 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel

Sensitivity of exo-planet projects  Radial velocity (Doppler)  Transit  Micro-lensing 10 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel

The Kepler mission Search Earthlike exo-planets 11 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel

Kepler’s first planets

The Habitable Zone

ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel How many biotic woldss exist in the Galaxy ? stars 10% Sunlike Planets in HZ Earthlike n HZ ? ? Kepler 22b Kepler 20e,f

ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel How frequent is extra-terrestrial life? 16

ILASOL 2009 Amri Wandel Probability for a terrestrial planet to become biotic vs. cosmic time Earth probability Time (bill.yrs) 17

Probabilities for terrestrial planets and biotic worlds 18 Average distance to nearest biotic exoplanet: D b ~10 ly (F p F b ) -1/3 Let’s assume two extreme scenarios: Optimistic: F p =1, F b =1, D b ~10 ly Pessimistic: F p =0.01, F b =0.001 D b ~500 ly

Exo-Planets by Micro-lensing 19 ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel

Distance to nearest biotic planet Log (FpFb)

ILASOL 2012 A. Wandel Probability for a biotic planet within 100 ly Log (FpFb)

Seems to be much more likely After Kepler extra-terrestrial life