NS4054 Fall Term 2015 Nuclear Rebound?. Overview Oxford Analytica, “Nuclear Industry Will Rebound,” November 13, 2013 Nuclear power seems to be making.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
1 AEP Perspectives on Development and Commercialization of CCS Technology for Natural Gas Power Generation Matt Usher, P.E. Director – New Technology Development.
Advertisements

Lignite Project By Ramic, Haris. GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR ENERGY World energy consumption is projected to increase at about 1.8%/year between 2000 and 2030(driven.
Energy in the Middle East John Ridgway.  Global Energy Outlook  Middle East Outlook Safety of our people – Protection of the environment Agenda.
1 Future Changes in Fuel Mix of Electricity Generation in Hong Kong and Implications By Larry Chuen-ho Chow Professor, Department of Geography Director,
UK Nuclear Policy Andrew Beirne
INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY World Energy Outlook 2004: Key Trends and Challenges Marco Baroni Energy Analyst Economic Analysis Division INTERNATIONAL HYDROGEN.
© OECD/IEA POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK IN OECD COUNTRIES 28 May 2010 Roundtable: Russian Federal Tariff Service Ian Cronshaw, Head, Energy Diversification.
Turning the wind into hydrogen: Long run impact on prices and capacity
WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Coal-fired electricity generation 1.Accounts for 39% of world electricity production – the most important source of electricity in OECD and non-OECD. 2.Accounts.
Financing new electricity supply in the UK market with carbon abatement constraints Keith Palmer 08 March 2006 AFG.
© OECD/IEA 2011 COAL AND CHINA’S CHOICES Jonathan Sinton China Program Manager International Energy Agency Washington, D.C., 12 January 2011.
Business of Energy - Fall Quarter. Seminar Schedule Introduction A Few Opening Questions… Presentation Today’s Schedule.
Energy Policy Conundrum Dependence on foreign supplies of oil and natural gas as an “economic” and a “national security” issue Oil shock in 2005 was primarily-demand.
China and Its Impact on World Energy Consumption Dan Westbrook.
Energy Situation, Security and Policy of China Dr. FENG Fei Development Research Center State Council, PR China.
Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic Analysis Division International Energy Agency / OECD WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK.
Future Global Trends – Resource security: How Sovereign Wealth Funds will benefit.
1. Summit Implementation Review Group December 10, 2008 El Salvador Philippe Benoit Sector Manager, Energy Latin America and the Caribbean The World Bank.
1 Status of and Outlook for Coal Supply and Demand in the U.S. Imagine West Virginia Spring 2010 Board of Governors Meeting April 13, 2010 Scott Sitzer.
Investment opportunities in the worldwide gold and uranium equity markets Marino G. Pieterse, publisher and editor March 5 – 6, 2013.
NS3040 Fall Term 2014 Iran Sanctions: No Nuclear Deal.
Why consider other Energy options for SingaporeWhy consider other Energy options for Singapore? In electricity tariffs in Singapore went up by 21.
© OECD/IEA The global energy outlook after the crisis Presentation to Delegation from the Federal tariff Service, Russian Federation Paris, 27 May.
1 Macroeconomic Impacts of EU Climate Policy in AIECE November 5, 2008 Olavi Rantala - Paavo Suni The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
© OECD/IEA World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights Pawel Olejarnik Research Analyst International Energy Agency.
Rosneft’s Initial Public Offering. 2 Initial Public Offering An initial public offering (IPO) is the process of selling stock to the public of a pre-
World Energy Outlook 2006 Scenarios for the World and the European Union Presentation to European Wind Energy Conference Milan, Italy, 7-10 May 2007.
CCS and Climate. Do We Need CCS? Climate protection is impossible with current emission trends. Global coal investments will lock in high cumulative carbon.
The Outlook for Energy Markets.  World oil markets have become increasingly tight since  Global demand growth, fed by worldwide economic growth,
Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation UN Climate Change Conference June 2011 Bonn, Germany, 7.
© OECD/IEA INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY Energy and Climate Outlook Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist International Energy Agency.
Natural Gas and Power Generation Natural Gas and Power: A Look at Prices Carbon Legislation and Power Generation The future of Power Generation and the.
Johnthescone The IPCC Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation.
NS4054 Fall Term 2015 Coal Markets. Coal Markets: Overview Oxford Analytica, “Coal Market Will Stay Oversupplied” September 15, 2015 Seaborne thermal.
© OECD/IEA 2015 Budapest, 19 October © OECD/IEA 2015 Energy & climate change today A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fast.
© OECD/IEA 2015 China launch of the World Energy Outlook Tangla Hotel, Beijing 24 November 2015.
NFFO and SRO Features: - Scope limited to grid-connected electricity generation Fixed-term, fixed-price contracts offered for purchase of electricity Support.
Geopolitics and the US Energy Security Outlook Guy Caruso October 10, 2011.
© 2008 Dominion Building New Nuclear Plants: Are Utilities Ready? Wisconsin Public Utility Institute Advances in Nuclear March 26, 2008 Eugene S. Grecheck.
Sean Goldrick Paper Reviewed: World Energy Outlook 2012, IEA Report Topic: Energy/Climate Change.
Fun Facts- The Lion King  Simba means “lion”  Mufasa means “King”  Scar’s original name is Taka which means “trash”- he changed his name after getting.
What have been the main trends in oil consumption and production over the last 30 years?
Current Energy Use in America. How much energy we use The United States only makes up 5% of the worlds population however consumes 25% of the worlds total.
15ELP044: Energy System Investment and Risk Management Unit 2B: Energy Economics and Markets Paul Rowley 1, Simon Watson 1 and Andy Williams 2 1 CREST.
© 2016 Global Market Insights, Inc. USA. All Rights Reserved Gas Turbine Market Price, Packaging Trends, Industry Outlook & Forecast.
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 China: Shift Away from Coal
World Energy and Environmental Outlook to 2030
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Australia: Energy Policy
Nuclear Power Economics and Project Structuring 2017 Edition
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Korea: Energy Policy
Primary energy and energy intensity Energy consumption growth.
Energy and Climate Outlook
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Japan: Energy Outlook
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Coal Outlook: Structural Weaknesses
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Nuclear Rebound?
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 Coal Markets
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Renewables Competitive by 2020
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Korea: Energy Policy
NS4960 Spring Term, 2018 China: Expanded Renewables
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Fundamentals Will Curb Coal
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Australia: Energy Policy
NS4053 Winter Term 2015 Iran Sanctions: No Nuclear Deal
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 China: Nuclear Expansion Issues
Energy Mix / Supply & Demand
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Energy Storage Markets
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 China: Shift Away from Coal
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 Japan: Energy Outlook
The Risks to Coal Plants in Coming Years
Presentation transcript:

NS4054 Fall Term 2015 Nuclear Rebound?

Overview Oxford Analytica, “Nuclear Industry Will Rebound,” November 13, 2013 Nuclear power seems to be making a comeback Announcement by UK of a major new nuclear power station – online 2022 at earliest Announcements other countries Japan restarting some nuclear plants Expansion of nuclear plants in China Russia and India 2

Fukushima likely to lead to greater and more expensive certification requirements for new plants Older plants (pre 1981) will likely be retried more quickly due to Fukushima Global electricity demand increased 3-4$ per year during and is expected to continue growing at around 2.5% until 2030 – in line with expected Global GDP growth, population increases and Industrialization As demand grows fuel mix for power generation continues to diversify Coal and gas still dominate but Coal’s share declining and the renewables share (including) hydro is increasing 3

Fukushima – changed landscape Nuclear had fairly good prospects for global power generation prior to March 2011 disaster in Japan While absolute capacity is still expected to rise, the share of nuclear power in global fuel mix now expected to decline Impact on Japan Prior to Fukushjima disaster nuclear power provided around 30% of Japan’s electricity Share had been predicted to grow to 40% by 2017 Now hard to estimate as first reactor restarted in September

Gap in electricity production filled by increased production from fossil-fueled thermal plants Reduced electricity demand Increased oil imports New coal-fired plants have also been constructed Impact beyond Japan Fukushjima disaster prompted many countries to re- examine their nuclear power programs German government decided to shut down seven of its pre-1981 reactors and halt all nuclear generagion after 2023 Belgium, Switzerland and Taiwan indicated that extending lifetime of older plants now less likely China imposed a freeze on nuclear plant construction following the disaster though this was lifted after two years 5

Long term decline Even before Fukushima production had been in absolute and relative decline for some years While Fukushima was a huge setback for nuclear’s prospects, production had been in absolute and relative decline for some years Nuclear energy accounted for 17% of global electricity generation in 1993 – peak year but By 2006 this had fallen to 15% and in 2012 its share just 11% Total nuclear output in 2012 was 7% lower than in 2011 and 12% below recent peak in 2002 As of July 2013 there were 17 fewer reactors operating comared to peak in

Ongoing challenges Safety increased requirements have greatly added to costs Competition facing increased competition from renewables where operating costs are low and capital costs are falling Costs Nuclear construction costs have increased from $1,000 to $7,000 per kilowatt of generating capacity over past ten years Shortages of skilled and experienced engineers also a problem Poor profitability, coupled with higher debt levels, reduced credit ratings and falling share prices mean energy firms poorly placed to develop new projects Building such high-cost plants very dfifficult in an open market electricity system – some form of long-term contract underwritten by government inevitable 7

Nuclear Renaissance? Despite drawbacks nuclear provides secure long term zero emissions power Thus a number of countries continue to pursue new nuclear plants as part of their generating mix Emerging markets Most new construction is concentrated in China, India and Russia 8

UK Successive UK governments have promoted construction of new nuclear plants French Company EDF will do the construction First at Hinkley Point in Sommerset Six additional reactors at three additional sites UK Government agreed to “contract for difference” that guarantees the generator an electricity price regardless of market conditions Deal criticized because the agreed price is much higher than present market price Construction risk remains largely with the taxpayer and consumer Deal may violate EU rules on state aid 9

While cosots of UK deal are well abaove conventional theremal power (ignoring carbon charge) competitive to some renewable sources Nuclear does not suffer problems of intermittency that plague other renewabvles. Assessment Relaltive hiatus on new nuclear plant construction and continuing retirement of older plandt mean nuclear output will continue to fall for a number of years Nuclear will likely come back once menories of Fukushima fade Can expect a limited nuclear renassiance during next decade 10