The quantitative impact of conflict on education Ruth Naylor & Amir Jones

1. How conflict impacts on education

Targeted attacks on education

Direct damage to education “Collateral damage” Targeted attacks

Indirect damage Direct damage to education Targeted attacks Forced displacement Public health Household labour Reduced returns to education Reduced expenditure (public & private) Reduced public capacity Total impact

2. The human costs: out-of-school children

The quantitative impact of conflict on education Key global statistics: ●57 million out of school children (OOSC) globally (primary school aged) ●28.5 million of these live in conflict affected countries (UNESCO) ●2-3 million IDP and refugee children out of school (primary school aged) ●Hundreds of thousands of students have their education interrupted by targeted attacks

EMIS data, primary school aged Survey data, ages 7-14 Country totals (33 countries) 39 million90 million Country totals, with sub-national estimates for India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan 28.5 million (UNESCO, 2013) 47.5 million OOSC living in conflict-affected areas (sub-national estimates for all 33 countries) 11 million24 million Number of OOSC living in conflict affected areas Sources: UIS and EPDC

The quantitative impact of conflict on education Estimating OOSC due to conflict Multi country regression studies Shields and Paulson (2014) Lai and Thyne (2007) Compare enrolment rates and trends in conflict and non conflict regions NAR in NE Nigeria is 49%, compared to over 90% in the south Ask why their children are out of school 16% of parents in S Kivu cited “fear of crime and conflict” as the primary cause of dropout Compare enrolment trends with conflict history UIS (2010) EPDC (2010)

DRC OOSC rates and conflict history Sources: UCDP, UIS

Country Estimated number of OOSC (UIS definition) 2011 Approximate proportion of OOSC that can be attributed to conflict Approximate number of OOSC in 2011/12 due to conflict DRC3.5 million10% to 20%0.3 to 0.7 million Nigeria10.5 million<5% <0.5 million (2011 data) Pakistan5.4 million15% to 50%0.8 to 2.7 million Total19.4 million5% to 20% (of total) 1.1 to 3.9 million Estimates of OOSC due to conflict

3. The financial costs

The financial costs of conflict to education Direct costs Cost of replacing destroyed and damaged infrastructure Cost of replacing damaged and looted equipment Cost of replacing lost teaching force Cost due to lost teaching time

Direct costs of targeted attacks, US$ million DRC26 Nigeria6 Pakistan101 Targeted attacks

The financial costs of conflict to education Scale of “collateral damage” is far greater than cases documented in Education under Attack Cost of reconstructing primary schools destroyed by bombing in Iraq ≈ $230m Cost of replacing damaged school infrastructure and equipment in Syria ≈ $1 to $3bn (Ndaruhutse & West 2015). During the Rwandan genocide, more than two- thirds of the teaching force were either killed or fled (Buckland 2005).

Economic impact of conflict through missed education Reduced enrolment and educational attainment lead to reduced GDP in long term (Burnett et al, 2013) Estimates for Pakistan: Long term cost of children out of school = $3bn 1 year reduction in average education attainment → 13% reduction in per capita income We used our estimates of impact of conflict on education to estimate the cost of the long term economic costs of lost education due to conflict.

The financial costs of conflict to education Summary of financial costs DRCNigeriaPakistan Direct cost to the education sector of targeted attacks, $26m $5.7m$101m Long-term impact on national income of current OOSC due to conflict $53-107mn/a$440m-1.5bn Long-term impact on national income of reduced educational attainment due to conflict $470mn/a$2.9bn

Long-term impact of direct and indirect costs Total direct costs Direct costs from targeted attacks EUA evidence Indirect costs Collateral damage