Four Central Facts About Incumbency. 1. Incumbents win a large proportion of the time because they have significant advantages.  Franking privilege 

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Presentation transcript:

Four Central Facts About Incumbency

1. Incumbents win a large proportion of the time because they have significant advantages.  Franking privilege  Casework  Position-taking  Weak challengers  $$$$$  Represent gerrymandered districts-Name recognitions

Incumbent Advantage The charts below show the enormous financial advantage enjoyed by incumbents. That's one of the reasons re-election rates are so high— incumbents generally don't have to work as hard to get their name and message out.re-election rates View the Cost of Beating a House Incumbent over time.Cost of Beating a House Incumbent House Type of Candidate Total Raised Number of Cands Avg Raised Incumbent$590,082,015435$1,356,510 Challenger$218,821,208653$335,101 Open Seat$169,531,219289$586,613 Grand Total$978,434,4421,377$710,555 Senate Type of Candidate Total Raised Number of Cands Avg Raised Incumbent$314,684,06436$8,741,224 Challenger$119,823,203104$1,152,146 Open Seat$63,654,79328$2,273,385 Grand Total$498,162,060168$2,965,250 Based on data released by the FEC on January 06, Figures include all candidates who have filed reports. org/bigpicture/incumbs. php?cycle=2008

BIG PICTURE Where the Money Came From

2. Incumbents win reelection because congressional elections are usually poorly followed by media and by the voters.  Voters vote by simple cues: party and/or name recognition Who will you vote for in the next election and why?

3. Congress as a whole is unpopular, but incumbents can weather the storm. Reelection ambitions of its members are not affected. On average, 94%-95% get reelected in any given election year in the House and 85% in the Senate. How can this unpopular institution see so many of its members reelected? Remember points 1 and 2  Incumbents have many resources available to them  Most voters use relatively simple cues to vote ct.php

4. Members of Congress “run scared”. This keeps them risk averse and keeps their behavior in line with what they perceive their constituents want. Even though defeat is rare, more members leave office due to electoral defeat than any other reason

Eddie Bernice Johnson, District 30