Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program “Strengthening Canada’s long- term competitiveness, it’s natural environment and the well-being of it’s citizens” ? AQRB Mid-Term Review 2004

Outline Current Status Challenges & next steps

Current Program Status Program built on national infrastructure with regional product delivery National Infrastructure – Weather and Numerical Models Local and regional forecasts developed as appropriate given local conditions and partnerships HQ provides scientific tools and program support Regions and partners have improvised, making best use of partnerships, using appropriate tools and advancing at their own rate New National Coordinator – AQF –Reports to DG AEPD –Consults closely with AQRB/CMC/PCAD –Objective is to build a “dynamic” forecast program that is relevant to Canadians

Regional Forecasts Forecasts are now available to 75% of the Canadian population through regional production & dissemination Pacific &Yukon –16 regions Daily AQI numerical forecasts (PM 10 and ozone) now year round Prairie and Northern –Experimental CHRONOS based forecast –Ventilation Index Forecast Ontario (Province and MSC) –28 regions AQI category forecast (PM2.5 and ozone) year round

Regional Forecasts Quebec –13 regions (S. Quebec) daily AQI category forecast (ozone) summertime –PM 2.5 when greater than 70 ug/m 3 per 3 hr running average –Greater Montreal wintertime daily category forecast (PM2.5) Atlantic –15 regions twice daily AQI numerical forecast (ozone) summertime –Evaluation of CHRONOS PM 2.5 capability –Experimental Wintertime category forecast

Program Challenges and Next Steps Current program developed from an “ad-hoc” approach. Requires National leadership to provide vision, establish priorities and accomplish product standardization Principal challenge is the establishment of A-based program funding. Currently in year 2 of the 4 year BAQS funding. Expires in 2007 –Will require an “enhanced” resubmission to TB in 2005 Program requires long-term funding stability in order to ensure success through strategic planning –important that all stakeholders identify/justify fiscal requirements prior to submission. Opportunity for increased $$$?

Program Challenges and Next Steps Establishment of year-round AQ forecasts –will require support from CMC/AQRB –current approach is for regional development of “tools” to address local issues i.e. Winter Dispersion –preferable to have a national approach to development lead by AQRB/CMC but working closely with Regions New AQI likely to be implemented in 2007 (Phil Blagden) –ozone & pm - Additional pollutants (NOx/SO 2 ) –will require reliable NO 2 guidance capability (CHRONOS or other) at the operational level as ASAP Enhanced operational model capability at the operational level –CHRONOS finer resolution/ 2 runs per day product equivalent of the GEM HiMap output –Request from Operations for the development of a statistical model i.e. “Son of CANFIS” or MOS products

Program Challenges and Next Steps National Standards and National Performance Measurement –Will be important for TB submission NOAA/MSC Operational AQ Working Group –Meeting in Fredericton – Nov 17, 2004 –Agenda being developed Meeting the needs of our principal stakeholders i.e. provinces through regulation development & adherence –Will play an important role wrt the AQF Development of a National Outreach Business Plan (Sharon Jeffers) –Will have a R &D/Model component –Input from AQRB/CMC required