Toward the Future Wiarda. Comp Pol trends §follow elite & public opinion §so expect a lot more on post-comm? §Positive developments rekindle interest.

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Presentation transcript:

Toward the Future Wiarda

Comp Pol trends §follow elite & public opinion §so expect a lot more on post-comm? §Positive developments rekindle interest l Africa more attention after democratization

Tradition §legal-formal-descriptive §analytical aspirations joined with need to explain superiority of democracy over communism and interest in newly independent nations

Biases §Anti Fascist §Fear of totalitarianism §Self-love of capitalism

Pol Dev: the fall §more familiar now with critique l ethnocentric l 1st world unique l dependency l traditional soc still valid l false expectations l methodology §Huntington & Vietnam!

New strands §Corporatism §Political Economy §Indigenous §BA regimes: partial account §Pol Culture now reviving

Pol Dev revival? §3 decades of experience §democ, pluralism, stability, rep. Govt, blend state reg & open economies, social modernization [239] §[Is this what works or what we want to work?!] §Communism unattractive

Development §Democracy & middle class §economic development is correlating better now than in 60s

Tasks §Abandon search for single theory §Work in sub-fields on projects §Develop islands of theory at middle range §Build bridges l state-society & public policy l IPE re socialist & capitalist economies l coporatism and dependency

Huntington: “Will more countries become democratic?”PSQ 1984 §Greatest potential BA Latin America l Argentina & Chile “polarizing” l Prospects better in Brazil §Islamic Low §Africa low §“Likelihood of democ devlpt in E Europe is virtually nil”

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 §Wave 1: 1848 etc in Europe l First reverse wave: fascism §Wave 2: Post WWII effects in 3W l Second reverse wave of auth in late 60s & 70s §3 rd wave movements l most actively pursued by urban middle class

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 §Combination of substantial econ dev and short term econ crisis most likely to lead to shift from auth to democ govt §Demonstration effects l More important in 3 rd wave than first two due to expansion in global communications

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 §Transformation: when elites took lead l ~16/35 3 rd wave transitions l e.g. Spain, Brazil, Hungary §Replacement: opposition groups took lead l 6/35 (3/7 changes from personal dictatorships) l Greece, Argentina, Philippines, Portugal, Romania, East Germany

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? 1997 §Transplacement: when democ occurred due to joint action by govt and opposition l ~11/35 l Poland, Czech, Uruguay, Korea l also some role in Bolivia, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua

Huntington: Third Wave of Democracy? Predictions §1 st efforts often fail and 2 nd succeed l elections vehicle and goal §Tied to economic performance? §Conditional on external aid?