16th Dubrovnik Economic Conference June 2010 Athanasios Vamvakidis International Monetary Fund.

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Presentation transcript:

16th Dubrovnik Economic Conference June 2010 Athanasios Vamvakidis International Monetary Fund

 Fiscal risks to the fore in advanced Europe  When Greece sneezes, who gets a cold?  Can everyone become more competitive?  Don’t forget emerging Europe  Recent policy initiatives in Europe and…  …what else can be done

July 2007 May 2010

9 Lower Interest Rates Weaker Currency Higher Exports Top 10 Past AM Consolidations Greece

Currency mismatch and long-run growth in emerging economies, Change in currency mismatch0.03**0.02** (0.01) Initial per capita GDP ***-1.11**-1.21**-1.68*** (0.68)(0.37)(0.38)(0.47)(0.41) Age dependency ratio -0.10***-0.09*** -0.12*** (0.02) (0.03) Investment/GDP 0.18***0.19*** 0.13** (0.04) (0.05) Trade/GDP (0.006) (0.007) Inflation rate (0.03) (0.05) Growth of terms of trade (0.09) Europe dummy (0.85)(0.95) Change in external debt/GDP 0.02 (0.01) Adjusted R Observations29

Growth in Sales and Currency Mismatch: Firm level data Dependant VariableGrowth in Sales between 2001 and 2004 SampleSmall Firms in Non-Tradables Sectors EstimationOLS Currency Mismatch Dummy0.087***0.081**0.088**0.070**0.066**0.070** Initial Log of Sales (2001)-0.041*** ***-0.019*-0.021*-0.025** Log of Years in Operation *-0.045* Initial Labor Productivity ***-0.057***-0.056*** Log(Sales/Employment) in Share of Foreign Input in Production0.0011*** *** Share of Employees with a University Degree0.0013***0.0013**0.0012** Share of Skilled Workers Number of Firms Adjusted R-squared Country Fixed EffectsYes NoYes No Industry Fixed EffectsNoYesNo YesNo Country-Industry Fixed EffectsNo YesNo Yes * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%

 Front-loaded deficit reduction in affected countries  Extended liquidity support and dollar swaps  ECB securities market program  Emergency loans (EU, IMF): Greece, EFSM, EFSF  Reforms to establish medium-term and long-term fiscal sustainability  Completion of financial sector repair  Structural reforms for growth  Reform of euro area fiscal governance