UNCLASS1 Dr. Gene Whitney Assistant Director for Environment Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President WISP Meeting - July 25, 2007 The Path Forward on Earth Observations and Climate Change

UNCLASS2 “Climate change is the 800 pound gorilla in the room.” * * Sources too numerous to list.

UNCLASS3 Started with the U.S. Global Change Research Act in Federal agencies 13 years $1.6 billion/yr, $20 billion total Basic research and global monitoring International collaboration and cooperation

UNCLASS4 1. Improve knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding of the causes of observed variability and change. 2. Improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes in the Earth's climate and related systems 3. Reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate and environmental systems may change in the future 4. Understand the sensitivity and adaptability of different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and related global changes 5. Explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability and change U.S. Climate Change Science Program Goals DOWNSTREAM

UNCLASS5 4-6 Analyses of the effects of global change on human health and welfare and human systems 4-7 Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation Systems and Infrastructure: Gulf Coast Study 5-1 Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, and other projections in decision support for selected sectors and regions. 5-2 Best practice approaches for characterizing, communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty in decisionmaking. 5-3 Decision support experiments and evaluations using seasonal to interannual forecasts and observational data 2-3 Aerosol properties and their impacts on climate 3-1 Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations for User Applications 3-3 Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific islands. 3-4Abrupt Climate Change 4-1 Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea level rise 4-3 The effects of climate change on agriculture, biodiversity, land, and water resources 4-5 Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use in the United States U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Products (a sample most relevant to weather & transportation out of 21 total) U U U

UNCLASS6 U.S. Climate Change Science Program FY09 Research Priorities Quantification of Climate Forcing and Feedbacks by Aerosols, Non- CO 2 Greenhouse Gases, Water Vapor, and Clouds Assessing Abrupt Changes in a Warming Climate: Examining the feasibility of developing an abrupt change early warning system Development of an Integrated Earth System Analysis Capability: A focus toward creating a high-quality record of the state of the atmosphere and ocean since 1979 Development of an End-to-End Hydrologic Projection and Application Capability Enhanced Carbon Cycle Research on High Latitude Systems Ecological Forecasting

UNCLASS7 IPCC 2007 – WG1-AR4 Precipitation change between 1980s and 2090s % IPCC reports…… Strong U.S. participation Winter Summer

UNCLASS8 Future path of climate change research: 1.More accurate rendering of natural systems by models through incorporation of clouds, aerosols, and other variables not currently handled 2.Higher resolution models to provide regional and local climate forecasts 3.More emphasis on impacts of climate change and understanding the mechanisms of climate change through the impacts 4.Exploration of innovative adaptation strategies Climate change science is not finished!

UNCLASS9 “You can’t manage what you don’t measure.”* * An old adage from business community

UNCLASS10 Vision: “Enable a healthy public, economy, and planet through an integrated, comprehensive, and sustained Earth observation system.” Purpose of USGEO: “to provide a management, planning, and resource allocation strategy for a U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System” U.S. Group on Earth Observations

UNCLASS11 Identify current and evolving requirements in the full range of societal benefits. Prioritize investments, including for new requirements, as necessary. Establish U.S. policies for Earth observations and data management, and continue U.S. policies of open access to observations, encouraging other countries to do likewise. Goals for the U.S. Integrated Earth Observation System* * Verbatim from a longer list in the USGEO Strategic Plan

UNCLASS12 Improve Weather Forecasting Reduce Loss of Life and Property from Disasters Protect and Monitor our Ocean Resources Understand, Assess, Predict, Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Variability and Change Support Sustainable Agriculture and Combat Land Degradation Understand the Effect of Environmental Factors on Human Health & Well Being Develop the Capacity to Make Ecological Forecasts Protect and Monitor Water Resources Monitor and Manage Energy Resources Integrated Earth Observation System Societal Benefits Look for the environmental observational value chain that ends here

UNCLASS13 Electric grid analogy Visualizing an Integrated Earth Observations System

UNCLASS14 Existing Policy Foundation for Earth Observations Coordination of Federal Earth Observation Activities Roles and Responsibilities of Federal Agencies and EOP Offices The role of defense and intelligence communities in Earth observations Role of State, local, regional, and tribal governments and institutions Role of the Commercial/Industrial/Private Sector/NGOs/Academia Guidelines for Research-to-Operations Transition International Cooperation in Earth observations Earth observations technical architecture Data collection, archiving, and availability Capacity Building for Earth Observations U.S. Earth Observations Policy: The “HOW”

UNCLASS15 Earth Observation Capabilities: Assessment & Planning: The “WHAT” 1. Assess existing Earth observation capabilities 2. Define national needs for societal benefits 3. Identify gaps and overlaps 4. Establish priorities or value system 5. Identify agencies responsible for priority needs 6. Coordinate budget planning with agencies and OMB 7. Implement and manage priority systems …..ongoing process……

UNCLASS16 GEOSS 10-Year Implementation Plan Reference Document GEO/GEOSS Group on Earth Observations/Global Earth Observations System of Systems