Community Vulnerability and Climate Change Dr. Shawn Dalton, Director, ESDRC, UNB, Fredericton Prativa Pradhan, MPHIL in Policy Studies, ESDRC, UNB, Fredericton

Outline Research background Research background Objectives of study Objectives of study Concept and Methodology Concept and Methodology Key questions of investigation Key questions of investigation Anticipated Results Anticipated Results Summary Summary

Research Background Impacts of changing climate is already evident in every region of Canada (NRCan, 2008) Impacts of changing climate is already evident in every region of Canada (NRCan, 2008) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that impacts of climate change will stress communities around the world. The impacts predicted will affect biophysical systems, which subsequently will affect human systems reliant on them (IPCC, 2007). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that impacts of climate change will stress communities around the world. The impacts predicted will affect biophysical systems, which subsequently will affect human systems reliant on them (IPCC, 2007). Communities in the local level are struggling to understand the impacts of climate change (Lantz. et.al., 2006) Communities in the local level are struggling to understand the impacts of climate change (Lantz. et.al., 2006) Many of Atlantic Canada’s communities are rural, depopulated and poor, and so their ecological, social and environmental conditions are sensitive (Mckenzie et.al., 2006). Many of Atlantic Canada’s communities are rural, depopulated and poor, and so their ecological, social and environmental conditions are sensitive (Mckenzie et.al., 2006). Research on community adaptation towards integrated planning is limited. Relatively few studies being conducted at the community level Research on community adaptation towards integrated planning is limited. Relatively few studies being conducted at the community level

Objectives of Study To understand and identify NB To understand and identify NB communities vulnerable to flooding and drought; To determine the different To determine the different characteristics of vulnerability in the communities of NB; and To determine how integrated planning can minimize creation of new vulnerable communities To determine how integrated planning can minimize creation of new vulnerable communities Funded By: This work is funded by Environmental Trust Fund This work is funded by Environmental Trust Fund

Concepts and Methodology Definitions of Vulnerability : Definitions of Vulnerability : “The degree to which a system is susceptible, or unable to cope, with adverse effects of climate change. It is the function of character, magnitude and rate to which a system is exposed to its sensitivity and adaptive capacity.” (IPCC,2007) “People’s capacity to adapt to any event that poses threat because of the lack of resources caused by their social factors” (UNEP, 2006). Vulnerability is a complex linkage to climate change that requires an understanding between science and public policy to increase the understanding to reduce vulnerability (Marland et al. 2007).

Model for Climate Change and Community Vulnerability Climate change Exposure Coping range Potential impacts Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability Vulnerability to climate change depends on potential impacts, but can be alleviated using adaptive capacity. Source : Fitzharris, 2007

Working Tool COPINGRANGECOPINGRANGE EXPOSURE

Key Questions for Investigation Which communities in New Brunswick are exposed to floods and drought? Geography Geography Population Population What is the coping range of exposed communities? Socioeconomic characteristics: i.e. age, income, health and education Socioeconomic characteristics: i.e. age, income, health and education Infrastructure: Roads, building age, power supply and water supply Infrastructure: Roads, building age, power supply and water supply What are the differences in the exposures and coping ranges between upland and coastal (both river and sea) communities in NB? Based on the outcomes from questions two and three, what integrated planning strategies could be employed to assist these communities in responding to climate change, and to minimize the creation of new vulnerable communities in New Brunswick?

Matrix: Variable, Indicator, Measure PrimaryVariableComponentVariableIndicatorMeasure ExposureGeography Proximity to water bodies Wetlands HydrologyFloodplains Land use Land cover Watersheds Topography /elevation -Parish lying within 60 meters of water bodies; Population Population density >= 10 people/ sq km

Matrix: Indicator, Variable, Measure PrimaryVariableComponentVariableIndicatorMeasure Coping Range Socioeconomic characteristics Income % of households in top 20 % of income brackets and % of low income households Health % of total type of chronic illness (Cancer, COPD, Bronchitis and Asthma) AgeEducation Dependency ratio: Ratio of population> <18 to years-olds % of adult population with HS diploma InfrastructureRoads Road density per sq km Building envelope Average age of building Power Supply % of population served by public power supply Water Supply % of population served by public water supply

Methodology Data Collection Data is collected from a variety of sources: Data is collected from a variety of sources: e.g. Statistics Canada, Service NB, Natural Resource Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey e.g. Statistics Canada, Service NB, Natural Resource Canada, Canadian Community Health Survey Data Analysis The data is analyzed using a geographic information systemThe data is analyzed using a geographic information system The scale of analysis is based on the level of exposureThe scale of analysis is based on the level of exposure and coping range The analysis will help to examine the spatial variation in vulnerability in the upland and coastal communitiesThe analysis will help to examine the spatial variation in vulnerability in the upland and coastal communities

Methodology Data Interpretation Data is interpreted on a descriptive and analytical basis. Data is interpreted on a descriptive and analytical basis. The results will help to show the discrepancies of vulnerability in NB. The results will help to show the discrepancies of vulnerability in NB. There will an indices in the map to indicate the highest and lowest range of coping range and exposure of the communities to determine vulnerability. There will an indices in the map to indicate the highest and lowest range of coping range and exposure of the communities to determine vulnerability.

Anticipated Results Identification of NB communities vulnerable to floods and drought Identification of NB communities vulnerable to floods and drought The differences in characteristics faced in upland and coastal areas will be determined The differences in characteristics faced in upland and coastal areas will be determined The knowledge of strategies to cope and adapt using appropriate integrated planning tools will be shared to the concerned departments in NB The knowledge of strategies to cope and adapt using appropriate integrated planning tools will be shared to the concerned departments in NB The output will inform the immediate needs to avoid impacts of flooding in communities of NB The output will inform the immediate needs to avoid impacts of flooding in communities of NB

Summary Results of the research highlight: Community vulnerability will be assessed Community vulnerability will be assessed The quality of the impacts will be assessed The quality of the impacts will be assessed Integrated planning will be highlighted Integrated planning will be highlighted This research is useful for: Local community people Local community people Planners Planners Policy makers Policy makers Researchers and academics Researchers and academics Emergency Measures Organizations Emergency Measures Organizations This research compels: Need to address community vulnerability for adapting to climate change in NB Need to address community vulnerability for adapting to climate change in NB Will identify future research needs Will identify future research needs

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