An Evaluation of Changing Patterns in EU Trade Policy and EU’s Role in the Global Economy Reflections on Relations with Turkey Presentation, IKV/Yeditepe Conference, Istanbul, May 14, 2010 Fredrik Erixon Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium.

Fredrik Erixon’s A Short History of Nearly Everything In General and For Everyone

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. My Presentation EU Trade: Some reflections The role of trade for structural change The role of China in EU trade and growth EU and the global economic crisis EU-Turkey relations: some reflections

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. EU trade expansion continues

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Trade Sector Growth (in %-units) Germany4210 Poland38 N/A Spain26267 United States85

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Share of national export in world export

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Globalization of supply chains

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Structural features of EU trade and growth Trade has a central role in EU growth and structural change –Especially with unflexible labour markets/wages EU trade increasingly global – shifting Eastwards Trade expansions reflects fragmentation of supply chains China plays a remarkably important role in EU trade and structural change

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium.

EU trade: some reflections Services: slow GDP and trade growth, esp of high-yielding services Partially offensive abroad, but defensive at home Service sector growth in EU largely reflects expansion of public sector

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Average No. of employed (Sweden, 100’s)

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. EU trade: some reflections EU is not protectionist and not moving in that direction –Problems remain, but not going in the wrong direction ”Diminishing giant” syndrome

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium.

EU-Turkey relations: some reflections Unbalanced dependency Trade has not expanded as fast as possible

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. EU-Turkey relations: some reflections

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. EU trade balance in Machinery and Transport (Mn EUR)

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. EU trade balance in manufacture goods (mn EUR)

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. EU trade balance in food, drinks, tobacco (mn EUR)

Rue Belliard 4-6, 1040 Brussels, Belgium. EU-Turkey relations: some reflections EU-Turkey trade dependencies are weakening Turkey’s trade profile suggests EU membership, not CU or AA Turkey’s role in EU structural change is weak, but EU’s role in Turkey’s structural change very strong EU input import from Turkey not significant; automotive sector is an exception Low inward FDI from EU; little substitution Agriculture, agriculture, agriculture: however, trade diversion Services: potentially strong contribution from Turkey to structural change and growth