Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for Calgary KJ Stefan, City of Calgary JDP McMillan, City of Calgary CR Blaschuk, City of Calgary JD Hunt, University of Calgary

Overall model context Weekend Household Activity Model (WHAM) Personal weekend travel Tour-based microsimulation model Emphasis on activities Partial treatment of household groups Same household survey as RTM Sampling evenly across all 7 days 2342 weekend households

Overall model context Part of a model system for Calgary Weekday regional travel model (RTM) Personal travel Aggregate model with full nested logit structure Weekday commercial vehicle model (CVM) Commercial vehicle travel Tour-based microsimulation model

Model goals Part of 24/7 system evaluation Benefits to all users Emissions Analysis of retail and entertainment facilities Microsimulation input Learning for weekday activity model

24/7 Model Coverage

Overall model structure Tour Generation and membership Tour Purpose Tour Mode Trip and stop properties (including location choice)

Two Types of Tours Growing Stops organically ‘grow’, chosen one after another Hybrid Rubber-banding Primary Stop chosen Optional Intermediate Stops Subsequent stops chosen as with growing tours

Home Growing Tours Stop ?

Home Growing Tours Stop

Home Growing Tours Stop ?

Home Growing Tours Stop

Home Hybrid Tours Primary Stop

Home Hybrid Tours Intermediate Stop Primary Stop ?

Home Hybrid Tours Intermediate Stop Primary Stop

Home Hybrid Tours Intermediate Stop Primary Stop ?

Home Hybrid Tours Intermediate Stop Primary Stop

Home Hybrid Tours Intermediate Stop Primary Stop ?

Tour Purposes Hybrid Treatment Out of Town Serve Passenger Work School Religious/Civic Exercise Growing Treatment Shopping Entertainment / Leisure Social Eating

Trip and stop properties Stop purpose Stop location Trip mode Stop duration

Model estimation Two-stage estimation Location attractors Linear regressions by activity Large number of zonal attributes Location choice logit model Combines attractors with travel and group information In progress; auto complete (most important one at ~65% of trips)

Zonal attributes Population and demographic Age ranges, incomes, car ownership Education spaces by level Employment by 8 industry types Park in hectares Special attractors Land use typology (calculated)

Special attractors Institutions: 3 major post secondary institutions 3 major hospitals Airport Entertainment: Arts and Culture District Stampede, Zoo, Heritage Park Big Box retail

Land use types 5 land use types: Low-density Residential Commercial (retail) Industrial Employment node Calculated based on employment and population (mix and density)

Low density Residential Commercial Industrial Employment node

Attractors – Work

Attractors - Work

Other attractor functions Serve Passenger: Retail, airport, hospitals, education School: Student spaces – especially PSE spaces Religious/Civic: Population (75+, income), education, retail Exercise: Park space, employment, population (65+, income), student spaces

Other attractor functions Shop: Retail (esp. commercial zones, big box) Entertainment/Leisure: Attractors, population (15-24, income), retail Social: Population (15-34, 65+, income), service, retail Eating: Retail (commercial, residential), population

Logit estimation Combining regressed attractors with travel costs and group properties Generalised travel cost (time and distance) Presenting one of a set of models Auto mode Growing portion of tours only Represents around 65% of weekend travel

Home Primary Stop Stop Growing tour or hybrid tour after primary stop

Home Stop To cost Primary Stop

Home Stop To cost Return cost Primary Stop

Home Stop To cost Return cost Enclosed angle Primary Stop

Home Stop To cost Return cost Enclosed angle Attractor Primary Stop

Auto Stop Location Parameters

Example groups One adult (30+) One adult, one kid (8) Two adults Two adults, two children (8 and 12) One adult, one senior (82, nondriving)

Example trips One adult: <25, shop 25-29, entertainment 30+, shop 30+, eating Low income, 30+, entertainment

Auto Stop Location Parameters

Auto Stop Model Sensible results Costs lest significant for social trips Return to home costs important, but not as important as to costs Less mobile members of group add to costs of location choices

Next Steps Estimate growing tour location choice models for remaining modes (bike and ‘other’) Estimate models for primary stop and intermediate stop location choices

QUESTIONS Please Use Microphone