Population Pyramids: Shapes Shape: Extended Triangle Growth: Moderate Shape: Triangular Growth: Fast Shape: Column Growth: Slow Shape: Reduced Pentagon Growth: Shrinking Session 4

Malthus and Overpopulation Thomas Malthus – 1798 wrote “Essay on the Principle of Population” Theory: People need food to survive and have natural desire to reproduce Food production increases arithmetically and population increases exponentially Conclusion: Predicted population growth would eventually outpace people’s ability to produce food leading to mass starvation and famine Malthus and Overpopulation Time Resources Needed Today 1 person-1 unit of food 25 years from now 2 persons-2 units of food 50 years from now 4 persons- 3 units of food 75 years from now 8 persons- 4 units of food 100 years from now 16 persons-5 units of food Session 4

Paul Erlich – most prominent neo-Malthusian. Wrote “Population Bomb” Neo-Malthusians argue that 3 characteristics of recent population growth makes Malthus’ argument even more frightening Sustainability: As the world approaches 10 billion people, ecological problems will make food demand difficult to meet Increasing Per Capita Demand: Amount of food per person is rising MDC citizens consume eight times the amount someone in an LDC consumes Natural Resource Depletion: Over- consumption of resources other than food may lead to an insufficient supply when the population hits 10 billion Neo-Malthusians Paul Erlich – most prominent neo-Malthusian. Wrote “Population Bomb” Session 4

Malthus and Overpopulation The disastrous end to humanity predicted by Malthus did not occur according to his critics for the following reasons: Invention: Food production increased because of tractors, artificial fertilizer, pesticides, irrigation techniques, plant and animal hybridization, refrigeration and canning Family Planning: Malthus did not foresee family planning and birth control and leading to a drop in CBR and NIR Scarcity/Distribution: Malthus did not recognize that famine is usually NOT related to a lack of food but to unequal distribution of food Malthus and Overpopulation Session 4

Carrying Capacity: The number of people a given area can maintain If surpassed, the population must decline unless the carrying capacity is raised. Overpopulation, therefore, implies a breach of an area’s carrying capacity, due to… Over consumption of resources Inefficient allocation of goods Unsustainable land use MDC’s blame LDC’s for having too many babies while LDCs blame MDCs for consuming disproportionate share of world’s resources Carrying Capacity Session 4

Epidemiological Transition Model The stages of the Epidemiological Transition Model follows the same path as the Demographic Transition Model. Stage 1: Pestilence and Famine Infectious diseases run rampant killing a large number of the population Stage 2: Receding Pandemics Improved sanitation, nutrition, medicine decreases spread of infectious diseases Stage 3: Degenerative and Human Created Diseases Fewer deaths from infectious diseases but an increase in chronic disease associated with aging (heart disease and cancer) Stage 4: Delayed Degenerative Diseases Degenerative diseases linger but life expectancy is extended through medical advances (bypass, radiation, chemo, etc.) Stage 5?: Reemergence of Infectious and Parasitic Diseases Evolution of new strains of bacteria (TB, polio, malaria) that are diffused faster due to globalization with a select few able to pay for the treatment Epidemiological Transition Model Session 4

Video China’s Lost Girls 2 Directions: There is no video guide, but students are expected to write down 5 impressions and/or questions that they have from the documentary. China’s Lost Girls http://www.snagfilms.com/films/title/chinas_lost_girls Video Session 2