MEPAG FEBRUARY 2008 Alan Stern Associate Administrator/SMD Alan Stern Associate Administrator/SMD

SMD’s Science Program Leads The World  $4.441B/yr budget.  Large Earth science, heliophysics, planetary science, & astrophysics programs.  53 flight missions in operation.  41 flight missions in development.  operating R&A grants.  These numbers exceed the combined efforts of all other Earth & space science programs of the World.

SMD Major Activities: Next 12 months

COST OVERRUNS AND UNEXPECTED MISSION EXPENDITURES But SMD’s Science Over- Runs Are Debilitating

 FY09 SMD Budget Overview  Recent MEP History  Mars Next Decade  MSL Issues  Thought Questions PRESENTATION OVERVIEW

FY09 PRESIDENT’S BUDGET: OVERVIEW

 We will get more science done within our budget.  We will help ensure that U.S. Space Exploration Policy succeeds.  We will promote U.S. leadership across all of SMD’s science disciplines.  We will improve SMD’s actual and its perceived impact on, and relevance to, the public.  We will create a better workplace. SMD MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES

SMD’S CROSS-CUTTING FY09 BUDGET OBJECTIVES  Accelerate the Earth Science Decadal Survey mission queue.  Increase space science R&A/MO&DA to get better value from our flight missions.  Increase the number of planned missions in all four of SMD’s science theme areas.  Support NRC Decadal Survey priorities.  Initiate an SMD lunar robotic science program.  Increase space science suborbital research programs to foster PI on-ramps, technology demonstration, and accomplish more science.

NASA AND SMD PRESIDENT’S BUDGET: FY09-FY13

SMD BUDGET BY SCIENCE THEME

MAJOR FY09 BUDGET INITIATIVES  Increased commitment to Earth Science over 5 years.  Initiated seven new FY09 mission starts: more than in the past four budgets combined; at least one per SMD science area:  Earth Science: SMAP and IceSat II (2012, 2015 launches)  Astrophysics: JDEM (launch in 2014/2015)  Heliophysics: Solar Probe Plus (launch in 2015)  Planetary: Outer Planets Flagship (launch by 2017) small lunar science orbiter (launch by 2011), and lunar mini-landers (launch by 2014).  Substantial increases in astrophysics, heliophysics, and planetary science R&A/MO&DA.  Increased budgets for suborbital rockets and balloons. Baseline Plan

SMD PLANETARY DIVISION’S CENTRAL ORGANIZING THEME THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE SOLAR SYSTEM

 Fund a new start for the outer planets flagship mission (LRD 2016/2017); fund Cassini through  Initiate a new lunar robotic science flight mission line, with first launch (LADEE small orbiter) by 2011, second launch (two ILN landers) by  Continue all existing Mars missions; launches in 2009, 2013, 2016; also fund US ExoMars participation for 2013 launch; initiate sample return studies leading to 2018 and 2020 MSR missions; augment Mars DA and R&A (58% FY08, 7% FY09, 11% by FY10).  Fully fund Juno (2011 launch) and New Frontiers 3 (2016 launch), as well as GRAIL (launch by 2011) and the next Discovery launch in  Augment general planetary R&A 29% in FY09. SELECTED FY09 BUDGET HIGHLIGHTS: PLANETARY Baseline Plan

SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM: JANUARY 2007

SMD’S FLIGHT PROGRAM: JANUARY 2008

NEWLY STARTED MISSIONS New Starts Defined as a Phase A Start Year or Final Downselect Year— Whichever is Later.

FY09 MARS PROGRAM PLAN

MSR

PLANETARY BUDGET CHANGES

PLANETARY DIVSISION BUDGET SPLITS

MARS BUDGET HISTORY

MARS PROGRAM CONTENT  Existing Flight Missions (5)  Mars Odyssey  Mars Recon Orbiter  MER-Spirit  MER-Opportunity  Phoenix  Missions in Development (3)  MSL Flagship ($1830M)  Mars Scout 2 ($475M)  ExoMarsx2 ($61M)  Additional Missions Funded in FY09 Budget (2)  Mars 2016 Ramp Up ($220M)  Mars Sample Return ($68M: studies & tech)

COMPARE TO ALL OTHER PLANETARY CONTENT  Existing Flight Missions (4)  Cassini  New Horizons  MESSENGER  Dawn  Missions in Development (2)  Outer Planets Flagship  LADEE Lunar Micro-Orbiter  Additional Missions Funded in FY09 Budget (3)  Discovery 2014  Lunar micro-landers 2014  New Frontiers 2016

PLANETARY BUDGET RUNNOUT TO %/yr SMD Growth Line

RECENT MEP BUDGET HISTORY

MEP ’07-08 BUDGET EVENTS  Jan: PHX $25M Build Cost Increase.  June: MSL Sample Caching, $2M Added.  May: MEP Next Decade MSR Re-Focus.  Aug: Phoenix launch.  Sep: Phoenix $5M Mission Ops Increase.  Sep: MSL $62M Re-baseline.  Sep: Funded New MER Extensions Thru FY08 ($10M) With Commitment for FY09 ($10M) If Still Operating.  Feb: FY09 Budget Request Released. R&A Increased. No Mars Cancellations.

MARS NEXT DECADE

MARS PROGRAM PLAN

Mars Program - Next Decade Launch Year 2020 TBD mission based on budget and science feed-forward TBD mission based on budget and science feed-forward MSR Element #1 Sample Receiving Facility online by 2022 MSR Element #2

MSL

 August 2006: MSL Confirmed at a development (C/D) cost of $972M. –Program added $32M to increase reserves to 35% (~60% on the S-Curve).  Late ’06/early ’07: ~$20M in descopes were taken to control cost growth: –TLS, Corer, Sample Crusher, CheMin dual X-ray source, EDL latitude performance.  June ’07: MSL descopes and cash of $62M. Sources of growth included: –Instruments; SAM, CheMin, ChemCam, Malin Space Science Systems cameras. –Mechanical Design of Rover body, Corer/drill, Sample Acquisition/Sample Processing and Handling –Actuator Design –Thermal Protection System testing –Parts Procurements –Fabrication Services/Labor  Jan ’08: MSL estimated need for $165M-$200M cash. Sources of growth include: –Actuators, Thermal Protection System testing –Parts, Subsystems, Testing –Fabrication Services/Labor MSL COST GROWTH HISTORY

MSL GROWTH BY SUBSYSTEM Largest contributors to growth NOTE: See also Aerospace Corp EVM Charts in b/u at WBS levels 3/4

Radar ATLO w/EMs ATLO KSC Flt. Avionics Descent Stage Drill Radar CDR June 2007 Launch Sept July 2008March 2008 Ship May 2009 Deliveries As of Jan EAC increased > $200M Since June 2007 KSC Deliveries Jan MSL Development Flow Compression Flt. Heatshield Flt. Avionics Descent Stage Drill As of June 2007 CDR Possible delays but flexibility available Flt. Heatshield

Original content marked “SBU”; deleted for publication Sensitive But Unclassified (SBU)

MSL PROJECT BUDGET GROWTH HISTORY 12/07/07 Current JPL Projected Blue line $1699M corresponds to the 70% on SRB’s S-curve development cost predicted at confirmation

SOME THOUGHT QUESTIONS

 What does a balanced planetary program look like?  What should we fly for MEP 2016?  What Mars efforts could be proposed to Discovery and New Frontiers?  What Mars-Moon flight program synergies exist?  Is MSR the right central organizing theme?  Is there a serious science loss if MSL arrival slips?

BACKUP

FY08FY09FY10FY11FY12FY13FY14FY15 BC & D E LADEE Launch Goal Mini Lander Launch Goal Lunar Research and Analysis ILN Operation Start Goal Mission of Opportunity Science-Funding-Opportunity Driven A Node I & II Operations Science Definition Cruise B E A Launch date to be set during Phase A TBD during Phase A LUNAR ROBOTIC SCIENCE MISSION INITIATIVE LADEE Mini Lander LRO E+ Possible Intl. Partner Early Operations EC/D ESMD SMD BC & D E SMD-Discovery Mission Cruise GRAIL SDT B/C/D duration finalized during A SMD-Full Moon Missions Science Definition SDT

PLANETARY PROGRAM BUDGET CONTENT

{ FY2007FY2008FY2009FY2010FY2011FY2012FY2013 Mars Exploration Mars Science Lab Mars Scout (2013) Mars Research and Analysis Operating Missions and Data Analysis Mars Sample Return Mars Technology Program ExoMars Mars