300 Years of NEP Caused By Land Use, CO 2 Fertilization and Climate Change According to LM3 Shevliakova, Malyshev, Hurtt and Pacala.

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Presentation transcript:

300 Years of NEP Caused By Land Use, CO 2 Fertilization and Climate Change According to LM3 Shevliakova, Malyshev, Hurtt and Pacala

Canopy and canopy air Soil/snow Atmosphere Photosynthesis Plant and soil respiration Energy and moisture balance Carbon uptake and release t~ 30 min fine roots Energy, water and carbon exchange leaves sapwood labile wood Carbon allocation and growth, t ~ 1 day Phenology, t~ 1 month Mortality, natural and fire t ~ 1 year Biogeography, t ~ 1 year { Land-use management, t ~ 1 year Climate statistics Carbon gain Plant type LAI, height, roots Land-use transitions Vegetation dynamics Dynamic Land Model LM3V

Land use characterization

climate Experimental Design spin-up (300 y) 1700 no land-use land-use land-use, no secondary CO 2 historical climate “recycled” no land-use CO ppm CO 2 historical CO ppm climate

Global NEP no land useland use CO2=286 ppm CO 2 =historic Recycled Climate True Climate CO 2 =286 ppm CO 2 =historic carbon, Gt Historic CO 2 No Secondary Historic CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use CO 2 Fertilization = 2 GtC / y

Global NEP no land useland use CO2=286 ppm CO 2 =historic Recycled Climate True Climate CO 2 =286 ppm CO 2 =historic carbon, Gt ENSO Matters Historic CO 2 No Secondary Historic CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use

Zonal distribution ( ave.) Recycled climate ( ) True climate ( ) Model Stable With No Perturbation Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

Zonal distribution ( ave.) Recycled climate ( ) True climate ( ) Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use Tropical Sources Caused By Harvest and Climate

Zonal distribution ( ave.) Recycled climate ( ) True climate ( ) Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use Tropical and Northern Sinks Caused By Climate and CO 2

Zonal distribution ( ave.) Recycled climate ( ) True climate ( ) Temperate Sink Sharpened by Land Use Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

Decadal zonal averages “80s” “90s” Recycled climate True climate Tropical Dipole Flips Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

Decadal zonal averages “80s” “90s” Recycled climate True climate Temperate Sink Stable Real CO 2 No Land Use Real CO 2 No Secondary Real CO 2 Real Land Use 286 ppm Real Land Use 286 ppm No Land Use

No land use East US Regrowth

Land use East US Regrowth

No land use Amazonian Deforestation

Land use Amazonian Deforestation

Land use Africa Drying True Climate Recycled Climate

Wood Products Matter Wood Products Sink NEP

Message to modelers who want to diagnose the cause of the terrestrial sink: Estimate dependencies on climate with forest inventory, eddy covariance and atmospheric trace gas measurements. Add land use with secondary harvest to solve the initial condition problem. Track agricultural and wood products.