Forest Governance And Trade: Exploring Options Wednesday 24 January 2007, Chatham House, London Adrian Whiteman, FAO Rome, Where will the main sources of raw material be in the future? Russia, Canada, USA, Sweden, Finland Southern Hemisphere temperate plantations Other temperate resources (natural and semi-natural) Tropical/sub-tropical plantations Natural tropical forests -Few large-scale forest concessions -More harvesting in secondary forest -Most harvesting by SMEs -Much harvesting for national/regional markets Residues, recycled and recovered wood products

Forest Governance And Trade: Exploring Options Wednesday 24 January 2007, Chatham House, London Adrian Whiteman, FAO Rome, How quickly will current sources become exhausted? Temperate resources will not become exhausted in the foreseeable future Natural tropical forest resources will become largely irrelevant to future global wood supplies Future growth in consumption will be met by -Forest plantations -More intensive management of natural forests -Residues, recycled and recovered wood products

Forest Governance And Trade: Exploring Options Wednesday 24 January 2007, Chatham House, London Adrian Whiteman, FAO Rome, How quickly will plantation timber develop as the major source? Now: -Forest plantations: 5% area;20% supply -Planted semi-natural: 5% area;20% supply -Temperate natural forest:50% area;50% supply -Tropical natural forest: 40% area;10% supply Next years: - Forest plantations: 7% area;30% supply - Planted semi-natural: 8% area;30% supply - Temperate natural forest:55% area;35% supply - Tropical natural forest: 35% area; 5% supply

Forest Governance And Trade: Exploring Options Wednesday 24 January 2007, Chatham House, London Adrian Whiteman, FAO Rome, How fast can certification or other measures develop to guarantee legal and sustainable timber from sources where this is a problem? Many challenges: -Globalisation: longer and more complex supply chains -Markets: very small proportion of wood products sold directly to consumers -Markets: “problem” areas sell mostly in markets where the “problem” is not recognised -Compliance cost: only acceptable in a few specific circumstances Main result will be market displacement

Forest Governance And Trade: Exploring Options Wednesday 24 January 2007, Chatham House, London Adrian Whiteman, FAO Rome, Other general comments on governance and wood supply..... The “problem” only affects a tiny and diminishing part of the global wood market Less public control over wood production in future Less labour for illegal wood production Large areas of secondary natural tropical forest What is important: tax collection; SFM; security? Economically optimal level of law enforcement: already low and likely to become even lower Forestry institutions: part of the problem or part of the solution?