P.1 QPF verif scores for NCEP and International Models ● 2013 ETS/bias scores for 00-24h and 24-48h forecasts (the two forecast ranges that all datasets.

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Presentation transcript:

P.1 QPF verif scores for NCEP and International Models ● 2013 ETS/bias scores for 00-24h and 24-48h forecasts (the two forecast ranges that all datasets have in common) verified over ConUS. ● Models being verified are NCEP's NAM and GFS; Canadian global and regional (CMCGLB/CMC); DWD, ECMWF, JMA, Meteo France (METFR), UKMO. For ease of viewing, the 9 models are divided into two groups, with GFS in common in both (P2) ● Upcoming NAM upgrade: summary of changes/upper-air verif stats (P3, from Eric Rogers); ETS/bias for 2013; quarterly time series comparisons (p4); NAM/NAMX FSS comparisons (p5) ● NAM and GFS quarterly FSS time series, (P6-7) Courtesy Ying Lin, NCEP/EMC

P.2 QPF Skill Scores over ConUS, Jan – Dec 2013, 1 &2 day fcsts Eq. Threat Bias GFS,NAM,CMCGLB,CMC,JMA GFS,DWD,ECMWF,METFR,UKMO 1.0

P.3 NAM vs. NAMX (para) 1/2/3 day forecasts, 23 Apr – 30 Sept 2012 Physics modifications: ● GWD/mountain-blocking; more responsive to subgrid-scale terrain variability ● BMJ convection: moister convective profiles, convection triggers less, increase 12km bias ● RRTM radiation, latest version ● Ferrier-Aligo microphysics, tuned to improve severe storm prediction ● Improved snow depth algorithm in LSM Changes planned for NAM implementation in Spring 2014 Vector Wind RMS (m/s) 12km CONUS 1 Oct 2013 – 15 Jan 2014 Data assimilation modifications: ● Hybrid variational-ensemble analysis with global EnKF ● New satellite bias correction algorithm (same as in FY14 global upgrade) ● Cloud/radar assimilation in NDAS Ops Parallel Day 1 = Black Day 2 = Red Day 3 = Blue

P.4 NAM vs. NAMX (para) 1/2/3 day forecasts, 23 Apr – 30 Sept 2012 NAM vs. NAMX (para) 1/2/3 day forecasts, Jan – Dec 2013 NAM, NAMX(dashed line) 24,48,72h forecasts, ETS at 0.25”/day Apr 2012 NAMX: on-going NAM parallel experiment ETS Bias

P.5 NAM, NAMX h FSS, 23 Sep Feb mm/day 10mm/day 25mm/day 50mm/day 5km 300km

P.6 NAM 24,48,72h FSS at 62km scale, mm/day 10mm/day 25mm/day50mm/day

P.7 GFS 24,48,72h FSS at 62km scale, mm/day 10mm/day 25mm/day50mm/day