SEMINAR WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Assoc. Prof. MUSTAFA KİBAROĞLU Bilkent University International Relations Department CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE DEFENCE AGAINST TERRORISM ANKARA - TURKEY 17 April 2006

2 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Separatist terrorism differs from terrorism carried out in the name of ideology, religion or economic gain Separatist terrorists attempt to forge national identity and aim to mobilize a community by appealing to the nationalistic background of a particular ethnic group Violence plays a special role in separatist terrorism. It keeps an idea alive and sustains the conflict, even when political objectives are far out of reach The fear created by violence polarizes cultural differences within a society and weakens the will to stay together

3 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Separatist terrorism becomes an effective instrument to use in “war by proxy strategy” between rival states Without considerable logistical support of all sorts from other states, separatist terrorist groups can hardly achieve their objectives States fighting against separatist terrorist groups must address not only the root-causes of the terrorists’ claims but also, and even more powerfully, deal with the states that support terrorism

4 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? PKK terrorism is an exemplary case where the degree of terror has been directly proportional to the degree of logistical support given by outside powers PKK, the self-proclaimed “representative” of the “ethnic demands” of the Kurds in Turkey, received substantial support of various sorts from different countries Originally, as a Marxist-Leninist organization, support of the Soviet Union to the PKK was almost for granted Eventually, seen as “freedom fighters”, support of the Western European states came along

5 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? More specifically, logistical support given by Syria has been the most significant, which enabled the PKK to inflict bloody terror attacks upon Turkey since the early 1980s There are diverging views among analysts about the “root- causes” of PKK terrorism Until mid-1990s analysts claimed that Turkey would not be able to deal with the PKK terrorism without addressing these root-causes. Most analysts usually declined to acknowledge the impact of outside support to the terrorist organization

6 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? However, there were other reasons why Turkey could not deal with the PKK properly Even though Turkey was a NATO member, PKK’s atrocities were not acknowledged as “armed attack from outside” that would invoke Article 5 of the Washington Treaty Turkey’s force posture was deployed regarding the colossal threat perceived from the Soviet Union. Syria, backed up by the Soviet Union, was hardly deterred from supporting the PKK as Turkey’s troop concentration along the Syrian border was rather weak until early 1990s

7 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Destabilization of Turkey’s southeast was expected, among others, to retard the grandiose GAP development project which was not welcomed by Syria Syria thought it could negotiate with Turkey “sharing” the waters of the Euphrates and the Tigris rivers in return for putting a halt to its support to the PKK Prolonged low intensity conflict with the PKK claimed the lives of 35,000 people and drained Turkey’s treasury Yet, the PKK could not win the hearts and minds of its “fellow Kurds” who are spread all over the country and who are the first class citizens of Turkey

8 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Dramatic changes have taken place in and around Turkey, such as: Iraqi invasion of Kuwait & the “No-fly-Zones” Dissolution of the Warsaw Pact & CFE Treaty Disintegration of the Soviet Union Turkey’s “alliance” with Israel All of which have affected the pace of the fight against the PKK and its staunch supporter Syria

9 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM?

10 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Turkey’s troop concentration along the Syrian border increased several folds Syria anticipated the dire consequences of sustained support to the PKK unless it unleashed the head of the terrorist organization who had long been to Damascus Turkey and Syria signed the “Adana Protocol” in October 1998 which incorporated clear cut acknowledgement by Syria of its past support to the PKK Soon after the head of PKK ended up in a jail in Turkey in February 1999

11 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? In accordance with its European vocation, Turkey realized a number of substantial Constitutional and legal reforms along with political and economic packages all of which were welcomed even by the critics of Turkey Attempts to solve the so-called “Kurdish problem”, which, according to many analysts, necessitated addressing its root-causes were well underway since then Turkey’s EU candidacy and the start of the accession negotiations in 2005 were the results of a series of achievements, among others, particularly in this field

12 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Notwithstanding the well acknowledged achievements and the reforms that are bearing fruit, the PKK terrorism seems to resurge The situation in northern Iraq, the status of Kirkuk, in particular, and close link between the Kurdish tribes in Iraq and the PKK in the region enables the terrorists to venture in a new wave of attacks The pace of attacks is likely to aggravate over the next two years until the confusion about the future status of Kirkuk is somehow resolved

13 WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? There are undeniable facts and figures which help corrolate the war by proxy strategy of rival countries to the pace of separatist terrorism that a country has to endure The linkage between the PKK and its supporter Syria has been decisive in the degree of terror that Turkey endured Addressing the political, social, cultural and economic root-causes of terrorism is surely a necessity. However, this may not always be a remedy to the problem if the proxy war strategy is adopted by the rivaling states

SEMINAR WAR BY PROXY: A POLITICAL EXPLANATION OF SEPARATIST TERRORISM? Assoc. Prof. MUSTAFA KİBAROĞLU Bilkent University International Relations Department CENTRE OF EXCELLENCE DEFENCE AGAINST TERRORISM ANKARA - TURKEY 17 April 2006