Latin America Progress Report Presented to the World Bank Regional Workshop 13 September 2005

Participating countries  10 South American countries grouped into two sub-regions : The Community of Andean Countries : (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela) The Community of Andean Countries : (Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru and Venezuela) Mercosur and Chile : ( Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay) Mercosur and Chile : ( Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay)  2 Ring countries : (Brazil and Chile)

How  Because of scarcity of resources the ICP draws heavily on national CPI operations for: Sample of outlets Sample of outlets Product specifications Product specifications Price collection operations Price collection operations Computation and editing of prices Computation and editing of prices  Ecuador, Uruguay, Chile and Colombia received additional funding for the ICP from their Central Bank  In Paraguay and Venezuela: Central Bank does CPI  Argentina, and Brazil received moral support (!)

Coverage (1)  The CPI coverage is urban areas for all countries.  Brazil covers 6 main regions  In Argentina, Paraguay and Venezuela, price collection is limited to the Capital.  The ICP coverage is total GDP for all 10 countries.

Coverage (2)  Andean Countries Bolivia (4 cities) Bolivia (4 cities) Peru (5 cities) Peru (5 cities) Colombia (4 cities) Colombia (4 cities) Ecuador (2 cities) Ecuador (2 cities) Venezuela (Caracas ) Venezuela (Caracas )

Coverage (3)  Mercosur y Chile Argentina (Buenos Aires,+) Argentina (Buenos Aires,+) Brazil (6 regions) Brazil (6 regions) Chile (13 cities) Chile (13 cities) Uruguay (5 cities) Uruguay (5 cities) Paraguay (Asunción) Paraguay (Asunción)

Data Collection  Collection for the ICP is conducted during a period of 4 to 6 weeks for each quarter.  The period is the same for all countries  The minimum period is 4 weeks but a country may decide to stretch it to 6 weeks.  In June only one country was using the Tool Pack PCM for Price collection (Uruguay)

Summary: Number of Products

Data operations (1)  Data are first edited by individual countries using either their CPI edit tools or Tool Pack  Micro data with the exception of the name of the outlet are sent to Statistics Canada for a second edit and quality control.  Formal agreements were signed between STC and each participating country to authorize the transfer of data to STC.

Data operations  STC calculates averages and dispersion measures. STC also calculates the QT.  STC send back the aggregated data and QT to participating countries and ECLAC for further data confrontation.  Every country receive the average prices and PPPs of all other participating countries. Not the micro data.

Review process  Errors and outliers are discussed one on one with the national coordinators before regional meeting with participating countries.  After each collection period, a regional meeting is held to discuss the preliminary results. Review of errors (in group) Review of errors (in group) Review of problematic specifications (in group) Review of problematic specifications (in group) Individual review of country’s data Individual review of country’s data  At the last two meetings : May 2005 and August 2005 Quaranta tables were used for the review

Operational procedures (1)  Detailed and complete time-table has been established and agreed with all 10 countries for four quarters of  Weekly teleconference between the regional coordinators to monitor the project.  Weekly contacts with national coordinators  Country Desk: each member of the team is responsible for a set of countries

Operational procedures (2)  For the two first quarter, field visits were done to assist countries before and during price collection  This quarter, limited assistance for collection is provided for a few countries.  In October 2005, before the price collection of the fourth quarter, a review and evaluation will be done in key countries to assure comparability.

Meetings  Four regional meetings to discuss results of quarterly price collection with price and SNA experts: May 2005 May 2005 August 2005 August 2005 November 2005 November 2005 April 2006 April 2006

Problems  Too few product specifications in some basic headings  Too few price collected  Too few outlets  Errors in collection (does not meet spec)  Errors in capture of data  Errors in unit of measure, etc  Toolpack

Problems (2)  Problems in individual countries: Strike in Brazil Strike in Brazil Changes of government in Bolivia, Ecuador Changes of government in Bolivia, Ecuador Sharp reduction of staff in Venezuela Sharp reduction of staff in Venezuela Problems of resources in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay Problems of resources in Uruguay, Argentina and Paraguay

Solutions  Reduction of scope for third quarter  Special collections in July and August to adjust second quarter  Re-inforcing the quality assurance of micro-data in countries  Mission of evaluation in October in key countries  Maintain tight timetable

Example of timetable: 2 st Quarter 2005  Field Visits to countries : 1 May - 30 June Colombia, and Ecuador (3) Colombia, and Ecuador (3)  Price collection: 15 May – 30 June  Preparation of micro data: July Transmission of Food components :12 July Transmission of Food components :12 July Transmission of rest of basket :18 July Transmission of rest of basket :18 July  Edit and aggregation at STC: July  Transmission of aggregates : 3 August

Example of timetable: 2 st Quarter 2005 (2)  Regional meeting in Montevideo for revision of 2st Q of 2005 Mercosur & Chile : August Mercosur & Chile : August Andean community : August Andean community : August SNA experts: August SNA experts: August  3nd Q price collection : 15 August – 30 September

Example of timetable: 2 st Quarter 2005  Regional meeting in Montevideo with national accountants for: Discussion of March’s PPP Discussion of March’s PPP Preparation of consumption weights Preparation of consumption weights Methodology of construction, M&E and government Methodology of construction, M&E and government Establishment of timetable for deliverable Establishment of timetable for deliverable

Timetable for Consumption  Fourth quarter price collection: 1 nov- 15 dec 2005  Revision of 4th Q : Jan-Feb 2006  Aggregation of 2005 : March 2006 ECLAC-STC review of 2005 : mid March 2006 ECLAC-STC review of 2005 : mid March 2006  Final review by all countries : 3-7 April 2006  Preliminary publication of consumption: June 2006  Ring: Chile (March-April 2006) Brazil (May 2006)

Timetable for GDP  Revised GDP weights from SNA : 30 sept  Videoconference : 12 Oct 2005 Establishment of criteria for the concordance between national and ICP classifications Establishment of criteria for the concordance between national and ICP classifications  Price collection for: construction : nov 05 - jan 06 construction : nov 05 - jan 06 machinery and equipment : dec 05 – feb 06 machinery and equipment : dec 05 – feb 06 Government : nov 05 – march 06 Government : nov 05 – march 06  Review of data : May-August  Publication of total GDP 2006 : December 2006

Plans  Calculate an average of 4 quarters for all countries when possible  Aggregation procedures  Analysis of the data (by outlets, districts)  Price collection for construction, M&E and Government ( 4th Q 2005 and 1st 2006)  Ring (2nd Q of 2006)  Publication of consumption : June 2006  Publication of GDP : Dec 2006

Plan …12 Collectionxxx Data review xxx Annual aggregation xxx Publicationconsumptionx GDP weights x Governmentxxxxx Constructionxxx M & E xxx Total GDP xxx

Afterthoughts Risks Risks Translation Translation Manuals Manuals Toolpack Toolpack