Elections

Warm Up Brainstorm – How do you think presidential and congressional races differ? Brainstorm – How do you think presidential and congressional races differ?

A. Presidential races are more competitive than congressional races (Congress--no term limits and tough to run against an incumbent) B. Fewer people vote in non-Presidential elections = Congressional races must be appealing to the more motivated, partisan voter C. Members can do things for constituents and get credit that Pres. can’t do D. Congressional candidate can deny responsibility for mess in Washington E. Power of presidential coattails has declined How do Presidential and Congressional races differ?

The General Election Campaign: each Presidential hopeful must Target the campaign Take advantage of political assets – incumbency Develop an image the voter responds to Attract the support of divergent groups Use issues and events for their own advantage Take advantage of the media as a primary means of communicating with the public Use the campaign organization and workers to get the vote out

Vote Will your vote make a difference? Will your vote make a difference? Voting is costly Voting is costly So why vote? So why vote? 2000 election election Downs – Rational Choice Theory Downs – Rational Choice Theory rational people vote if they believe that the policies of one party will bring more benefits than the policies of the other party rational people vote if they believe that the policies of one party will bring more benefits than the policies of the other party People who see policy differences between the parties are more likely to vote, but if you see no difference, the rational choice is not to vote. People who see policy differences between the parties are more likely to vote, but if you see no difference, the rational choice is not to vote. High sense of political efficacy High sense of political efficacy Civic duty Civic duty

Who Votes? 1) Education 1) Education 2) Age 2) Age 3) Race 3) Race 4) Gender 4) Gender 5) Married vs. Unmarried 5) Married vs. Unmarried 6) Government employment 6) Government employment Other Other people who have lived at the same address for a long time are more likely to vote people who have lived at the same address for a long time are more likely to vote union members and families are more likely to vote. union members and families are more likely to vote.

president/exit-polls.html president/exit-polls.html president/exit-polls.html president/exit-polls.html president/national-exit-polls.html president/national-exit-polls.html president/national-exit-polls.html president/national-exit-polls.html

How Americans Vote Mandate theory of elections - Journalists and politicians like to believe that Americans vote because they agree more with the policy views of Candidate A than with those of Candidate B. Mandate theory of elections - Journalists and politicians like to believe that Americans vote because they agree more with the policy views of Candidate A than with those of Candidate B. Political scientists tend to focus on three other explanations: Political scientists tend to focus on three other explanations: party identification party identification candidate evaluation candidate evaluation 3 important dimensions – integrity, reliability, and competence 3 important dimensions – integrity, reliability, and competence Ex: 2004 John Kerry was labeled by Bush as a “flip-flopper” – image of reliability suffered Ex: 2004 John Kerry was labeled by Bush as a “flip-flopper” – image of reliability suffered policy voting policy voting People base choices in election on their issue preferences People base choices in election on their issue preferences

What decides elections? A. Party identification most commonly used factor B. Issues 1. Retrospective voting: based on how things are going and have been going; usually helps incumbent unless economy is bad 2. Prospective voting: based on how things will go—used by few voters

C. Campaigns make a difference 1. Reawaken partisan loyalties 2. Give voters chance to watch how candidates handle pressure/apply pressure 3. Judge the character and core values of candidates D. Winning coalitions 1. Holding on to base and attracting swing voters

Electoral College Member of college, not people, who cast determining votes Member of college, not people, who cast determining votes How it works How it works 1. Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to the number of representatives and senators. 1. Each state has a number of electoral votes equal to the number of representatives and senators. A. Electors are chosen by political parties. A. Electors are chosen by political parties. B. There is a total of 538 electors, each with one vote. B. There is a total of 538 electors, each with one vote. 2. All states have winner take all (except Maine and Nebraska) 2. All states have winner take all (except Maine and Nebraska) 3. Electors vote in the December after a November election in their states capital. 3. Electors vote in the December after a November election in their states capital. 4. If no candidate wins electoral majority – election is thrown to House 4. If no candidate wins electoral majority – election is thrown to House

The House of Representatives

The Senate

Electoral College Pro’s of the Electoral College Pro’s of the Electoral College Con’s of Electoral College Con’s of Electoral College

/ pdf / pdf / pdf / pdf

Other plans Proportional, Direct, and Congressional Proportional, Direct, and Congressional Arguments for/against Arguments for/against Proportional Proportional States electoral votes split according to their popular vote States electoral votes split according to their popular vote Direct Direct State by state State by state All votes determine winner All votes determine winner Provide for runoff Provide for runoff Congressional Congressional Electors counted by congressional district Electors counted by congressional district Divides electoral votes by district – 1 to each district, and use remaining 2 as bonus for statewide popular vote winner Divides electoral votes by district – 1 to each district, and use remaining 2 as bonus for statewide popular vote winner

Warm Up Decide if each statement below about the electoral college is true or false. Decide if each statement below about the electoral college is true or false. 1. A candidate can win the popular vote but lose the presidential election. 1. A candidate can win the popular vote but lose the presidential election. 2. California has the same number of electoral votes as Rhode Island. 2. California has the same number of electoral votes as Rhode Island. 3. If a candidate wins fifty-three percent of the vote in New York, he or she wins all of that state’s electoral votes. 3. If a candidate wins fifty-three percent of the vote in New York, he or she wins all of that state’s electoral votes. 4. A candidate becomes president by winning a majority of electoral votes. 4. A candidate becomes president by winning a majority of electoral votes. 5. The number of electors a state has is based on the state’s congressional representation. 5. The number of electors a state has is based on the state’s congressional representation.