NESDIS ORA PRESENTATION TO NWS PARTNERS WORKSHOP PRECIP, FLASH FLOODS & AVIATION DEVELOPMENTS Hank Drahos June 24,

Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPS  Currently, the version of the H-E that is supplied to AWIPS uses GOES-12 (East) data only. Beginning with an upcoming AWIPS maintenance release (by the end of FY 2004), GOES-10 (West) data will also be used and will improve coverage and accuracy over the Western US.  Related improvements: –Areas of missing data will be discriminated from areas of no precipitation (currently both are indicated by zero values); –Coverage of the AWIPS product will also be extended into Canada.

Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPS  In response to an NWS request, a version of the H-E for Hawaii is being developed. Operational implementation is anticipated in FY  The NWS has also requested H-E coverage over Puerto Rico. Arrangements are being made for coverage to be extended to Puerto Rico in a future AWIPS build (the H-E is already available for Puerto Rico via the Web).

Upcoming Improvements to the Hydro-Estimator on AWIPS  A recalibration of the H-E cloud top temperature/rainfall rate curve has been initiated.  Incorporating lightning data into H-E and the Hydro-Nowcaster.

Flash flood producing thunderstorm over the Washington DC Metropolitan Region with 5 minute cloud to ground lightning superimposed: June 17, 2004 at 7:00 PM GOES  m IR

Three hour Nowcasts for July 1, 2002, UTC Hydro - Nowcaster [inches] Stage III

GOES Aviation Products on AWIPS  Current Capabilities –Images (Vis, IR, WV) –Fog (11-4  m) –Volcanic Ash (  m; GOES-10 only) –Sounder products  Cloud Top Height  Lifted Index  Soundings  Microburst Indices (Wind Index, MDPI)  Potential Upgrades * –Low Cloud Base ** –Aircraft Icing –Ozone (CAT potential) –Global cloud tops –Volcanic ash (GOES-12 through 15) ** –Wet Microburst Potential Index * None on current AWIPS Build schedules ** Supported by NWS

GOES Low Cloud Base Product  Shows where low ceilings & fog are likely  Based on GOES IR – surface temperature  Verification (lower 48) –POD ~ 72% –FAR ~ 11%  Low clouds may be obscured by cirrus GOES-10 LCB – 27 Aug 2002 / 1300Z

GOES Aircraft Icing Potential  Shows likely areas of supercooled clouds + cloud top heights  Uses Imager IR & Visible + Sounder  Not able to detect SLD (Supercooled Large Drop) icing  Cirrus obscuration GOES ‘ICECAP’ Product < 6 kft < 12 kft < 18 kft < 24 kft

Full Disk Cloud Top Image  Global cloud top coverage  Uses new 13.3  m IR on GOES- 12+  More accurate cloud top heights for volcanic ash plumes U. Of Wisconsin – CIMSS

GOES Ozone Product  High ozone levels are found in tropopause “folds” near upper level fronts  Correlate with clear air turbulence  CIMSS ozone product derived from Sounder CIMSS Ozone Product