Prepared by: February 11, 2008 Post-Super Tuesday/ Pre-Chesapeake Tuesday Political Media Analysis.

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Prepared by: February 11, 2008 Post-Super Tuesday/ Pre-Chesapeake Tuesday Political Media Analysis

Media Volume vs. Media Signal 14 days before Super Tuesday (January 23-February 5, 2008)  There is often a big difference between measuring media coverage and measuring media signal. The volume of media coverage is measured by counting the number of newspaper articles, TV segments, online posts, etc. Media signal, on the other hand, measures the audience reach of those newspaper articles, TV segments and online posts based on circulation, viewers and online site visitors.  The difference between these two measurements is particularly dramatic in the Republican presidential race.  The analysis throughout the rest of this report shows measurements in terms of media signal. GOP Share of Voice – Media Volume GOP Share of Voice – Media Signal

Post-Super Tuesday

National Media Signal 14 days before Super Tuesday  John McCain consistently led Mitt Romney in terms of audience reach in the 14 days leading up to Super Tuesday. Mike Huckabee trailed both front-runners, but was never out of the limelight completely. In fact, Huckabee didn’t have to beat McCain or Romney in the media; in states such as Georgia and Missouri where his share of voice in the media rose well above his national 14% average, he won or placed second in those elections.  On the Democratic side, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton swapped the lead several times during the two week period, eventually running even in the media battle for voters’ eyeballs. Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice National Baseline

California Media Signal 14 days before Super Tuesday  Calif. Dem. Results: Clinton 52% Obama 42%  Calif. GOP Results: McCain 42% Romney 34% Huckabee 12% Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice National Baseline

Georgia Media Signal 14 days before Super Tuesday  Ga. Dem. Results: Obama 66% Clinton 31%  Ga. GOP Results: Huckabee 34% McCain 32% Romney 30% Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice

Missouri Media Signal 14 days before Super Tuesday  Mo. Dem. Results: Obama 49% Clinton 48%  Mo. GOP Results: McCain 33% Huckabee 32% Romney 29% Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice

New Jersey Media Signal 14 days before Super Tuesday  N.J. Dem. Results: Clinton 54% Obama 44%  N.J. GOP Results: McCain 55% Romney 28% Huckabee 8% Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice

Tennessee Media Signal 14 days before Super Tuesday  Tenn. Dem. Results: Clinton 54% Obama 41%  Tenn. GOP Results: Huckabee 34% McCain 32% Romney 24% Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice

Pre-Chesapeake Tuesday

National Media Signal January 28-February 9, 2008 Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice National Baseline

Kansas Media Signal January 28-February 9, 2008  Kan. GOP Results: Huckabee 60% McCain 24% GOP Share of Voice National Baseline

Louisiana Media Signal January 28-February 9, 2008  La. Dem. Results: Obama 57% Clinton 36%  La. GOP Results: Huckabee 43% McCain 42% Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice National Baseline

Nebraska Media Signal January 28-February 9, 2008  Neb. Dem. Results: Clinton 54% Obama 41% Dem Share of Voice National Baseline

Virginia Media Signal January 28-February 9, 2008 Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice National Baseline

Washington State Media Signal January 28-February 9, 2008  Wash. Dem. Results: Obama 68% Clinton 31%  Wash. GOP Results: McCain 26% Huckabee 24% Dem Share of Voice GOP Share of Voice National Baseline