NOAA North American Drought Monitor (NADM) Sharon LeDuc NOAA/NESDIS/NCDC NOAA - Environment Canada Bilateral Meeting November 6, 2008

NOAA NADM History First step of continent-wide assessment of long-term variability and trends in extremes, North America Climate Extremes Monitoring (NACEM) – see backup slides November 2001 – US, CN, MX initial meeting April 2002 – NA drought monitoring program plans December 2002 – first experimental NADM map April 2003 – first NADM map released to public November 2003 – Added French & Spanish translations Summer 2004 – Canadian coverage extended Share daily data (MSC, NOAA, SMN) & authorship:  Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) in Canada  NOAA(NCDC,CPC), USDA(JAWF), National Drought Mitigation Center  National Meteorological Service (SMN) in Mexico NCDC hosts website Biennial meeting hosted by each country

NOAA NADM Operational Details Each country determines drought depiction & narrative within national boundaries NADM lead authorship rotates NADM lead author integrates national drought assessments from each country, prepares continental monthly map & narrative Continental indicators used for international boundaries All participants peer review product 5 th of the Month: Data received; syncronized with appropriate USDM 7 th of the Month: Online continental-scale indicator maps 10 th of the Month: NADM lead author adjusts drought depiction along international boundaries, distributes NADM map to all participants for peer review, produces additional drafts as necessary per peer review comments 12 th of the Month: Country provides the narrative text to the lead author; integration & distribution of text for continental narrative for peer review; continental map depiction finalized 14 th of the Month: Country final approval of map & narrative to lead author 16 th of the Month: Narrative & map online

NOAA The Challenge No fixed drought definition, several drought types (hydro, agricultural, meteorological), personal perception of what constitutes drought, one indicator does not fit all 1)Direct Measurements a) Reservoir storage b) Streamflows c) Soil moisture (e.g. SCAN) d) Groundwater 2) Drought Indices a) Palmer Drought Index b) SPI c) SWSI 3) Remote Sensing 4) Modeling a) LDAS Soil Moisture and Runoff b) CPC Leaky Bucket 5) Impacts (Mostly subjective) 6) Combinations of the Above (U.S. Drought Monitor)

NOAA Consolidate indices and indicators into one comprehensive drought map  Palmer Drought Index  - SPI  - KBDI  Modeled Soil Moisture  - 7-Day Avg. Streamflow  - Precipitation Anomalies  Growing Season:  - Crop Moisture Index  - Sat. Veg. Health Index  Soil Moisture  Mesonet data  In The West:  - SWSI  - Reservoir levels  Snowpack  Streamflow Trying to capture these characteristics:  the drought’s magnitude (duration + intensity)  spatial extent  probability of occurrence  Impacts Rates drought intensity by percentile ranks The US Drought Monitor Concept

NOAA Drought Severity Classifications Original intent of USDM was to depict on the consensus of 5 or 6 key indicators.

NOAA What is Needed A consistent, objective Drought Monitor based on a synthesis of the indicators, tweaked to reflect ground truth More accurate indicators, including more soil measurements Continued progress on combining soil model output Continued progress on satellite monitoring

NOAA Opportunities for Future Enhance assessment of moisture conditions in Canada  Provide additional datasets (gridded, station normals) Use remote sensing for continent-wide products  Increase the number of satellite based products  Compare in situ data with satellite based products Create an expanded continental version of National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Support Earth Observation Partnership of Americas  Facilitate international working relationships & collaborations  Encourage the use and exchange of data  Coordinate & leverage regional assets & resources