National survey-1,328 voters, Three focus groups-swing voters September 2007 HART RESEARCH P e t e r D ASSOTESCIA Winning The Battle Of Budget: Framing The Best Case In The Upcoming Appropriations Fights Research conducted for Americans United, AFSCME, and USAction

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 2 Voters have high disapproval of all the players. George W. Bush Job Approval Ratings Democrats in Congress Republicans in Congress Strongly disapprove 46% Strongly disapprove 29% Strongly disapprove 32%

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 3 In comparative terms, Democrats still have the high ground. In next year’s Congressional election, are you more likely to vote for the Democrat or the Republican? Demo- crat Repub- lican Undecided +9 Generally speaking, in whom do you have more confidence to deal with the major issues facing the country today? Democrats in Congress President Bush Not sure +18

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 4 Mean rating on seven-point scale: 1 = Most important goal, 7 = least important Focusing on needs at home, not Iraq, is voters ’ top budget priority. Shift our priorities to focus more on the needs of Americans here at home, instead of pouring billions of dollars into Iraq. (14 of 33 participants ranked this first) Increase investments in jobs, healthcare and education to ensure a better future for our country and the next generation of Americans. (7 ranked this first) Making sure that we put the needs of middle-class Americans ahead of tax breaks for the wealthy. (5 ranked this first) Avoid tax increases that would hurt our economy and put a bigger tax burden on average Americans. (4 ranked this first) Putting our country on a sound fiscal footing and moving back toward a balanced budget. (1 ranked this first) Reduce wasteful pork barrel spending, and use taxpayer dollars on programs that really work (4 ranked this first) Modernize our bridges, highways, and other infrastructure to avoid more collapses and failures of basic services that Americans rely on. (0)

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 5 In veto fights over appropriations, voters initially are divided. “President Bush has said he will veto several of the appropriations bills for federal spending being considered by the Democratic Congress. President Bush says the Democrats' appropriation bills contain too many wasteful pork-barrel spending projects, and go too far in busting the budget and increasing government spending. Democrats say their bills make responsible and necessary invest-ments in important priorities that the Bush administration has short-changed.” When you hear that President Bush will veto several of the Democrats’ appropriations bills for these reasons, who are you more inclined to side with on this issue? Side with the Democrats Side with Pres. Bush Much more 26% Much more 25% 46% 40%

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 6 Democrats’ advantage is bigger when focus is on GOP unwillingness to fund priorities at home after spending so much on Iraq. In each pair of statements, which concerns you more? Democrats will raise spending/ pork barrels/raise taxes Pres. Bush/GOPs will oppose needed funding for priorities/ keep tax breaks for wealthy Democrats will raise spending/ pork barrels/raise taxes Pres. Bush/GOPs will oppose needed funding for priorities after spending so much in Iraq Democrats will raise spending/ pork barrels/raise taxes Pres. Bush will stand in way of funding priorities/stubborn strategy just to get his own way Among Persuadable Voters

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 7 Iraq contrast is strongest frame for Democratic message. Over the past five years, the Bush administration has spent nearly half a trillion dollars in Iraq, while saying that we cannot afford to meet our priorities here at home. In fact, with just one week of Iraq war funding, about two billion dollars, we could have provided 800,000 children with health care coverage for one year. The Democrats understand that it is time we put first things first and invest in health care, education, and infrastructure right here in America. (43% very convincing) Democrats’ budget priorities restore American Dream: affordable college, accessible health care, jobs, clean renewable energy (31% very convincing) Meeting important needs in a fiscally responsible way is just setting priorities: Bush/GOP priority is tax breaks for wealthy. Democrats understand importance of helping middle class/working families: schools, health care, environment, infrastructure (34% very convincing) % very/fairly convincing argument for Democrats’ approach on budget/spending Persuad- ables 63% 54% 53%

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 8 Bridges/infrastructure is collapsing, other critical priorities have been neglected. Democrats understand successful future means investing now in education, disease research, clean energy, modern transportation system (33% very convincing) For six years, Bush/GOP neglected important needs of country, America has paid the price. Democrats are doing what is necessary to make sure we take care of important priorities like education, health care (26% very convincing) Democrats taking fiscally responsible approach, not adding a lot of new spending, 75% of difference with Bush is restoring ill-advised cuts Bush tried to make. Democrats proposal part of plan to move toward balanced budget (23% very convincing) Americans voted last year for change/new direction and Democrats are working to deliver, seeking bipartisan support for spending proposals. But Bush is stubbornly standing in the way of change and following a deliberate policy of obstruction (17% very convincing) % very/fairly convincing argument for Democrats’ approach on budget/spending Persuad- ables 53% 47% 45% 36% Iraq contrast is strongest frame for Democratic message.

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 9 Investing in the future and putting middle class first are the best statements of Democratic goals. Making sure that we put the real needs of middle-class Americans and average working families ahead of tax breaks for the wealthy that just help the rich get richer Making the investments we need to ensure a better future for our country and for the next generation of Americans, including investments in education, economic development, renewable energy, and a healthy environment Shifting our priorities to focus more on the needs of Americans here at home, instead of pouring billions upon billions of dollars into Iraq % strongly agree/very important goal (9-10 on 10-point scale) 53% 52% 48% Modernizing infrastructure and fiscal responsibility are seen as less important goals.

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 10 Best rated slogans focus on investing in future, right priorities, taking care of things at home. Invest in America’s future It’s time to take care of things at home It’s time to get our priorities straight It’s time to put America first Put America’s priorities first Stop shortchanging America for Iraq Invest in America’s priorities Stop shortchanging America First things first Focus group participants ranking each among top four choices: Of 33 total participants

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 11 Voters side with Democrats over Bush on a wide range of specifics. $3.7 B more than Bush on veterans’ health care $630M more than Bush on highways/bridges=jobs $1 B more than Bush on disease research $200 M more than Bush on health care for uninsured $35 B more than Bush on S-CHIP for uninsured kids $2 B more than Bush on homeland security $65 M more than Bush on food/medicine safety $1.5 B more than Bush on schools/Head Start $1.6 M more than Bush on law enforcement/crime 74% 71% 68% 67% 65% 64% 63% All voters

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 12 Swing voters worry most about pork- barrel projects. Democrat 26% 22% 16% 10% 7% Which one or two of these concern you the most about how the Democrats in Congress would deal with these issues involving government spending? The Democrats will not do enough to fund critical domestic priorities The Democrats will waste too much of our money on unnecessary pork-barrel projects The Democrats will end up raising everyone's taxes to pay for their spending programs The Democrats will go too far in increasing the size of government, with more big government programs The Democrats will bust the budget by increasing government spending too much 2008 vote for Congress Republican 11% 30% 48% 34% 20% Swings 18% 32% 25% 24% 10%

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 13 Making the Democratic case turns a narrow edge into a strong advantage. When you hear that President Bush will veto several of the Democrats’ appropriations/spending bills, with whom are you more inclined to side? Side with the Democrats Side with Pres. Bush Much more 26% Much more 25% 46% 40% Initial Support Side with the Democrats Side with Pres. Bush Much more 42% Much more 18% 57% 31% Support after Arguments

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 14 Making the Democratic case turns a narrow edge into a strong advantage. When you hear that President Bush will veto several of the Democrats’ appropriations/spending bills, with whom are you more inclined to side? Initial Support Support after Arguments Demo- crats Pres Bush Dems – Bush Demo- crats Pres Bush Dems – Bush All voters Swing voters Independents Men/non-college Men/college grad Women/non-college Women/college grad 46% 33% 37%33% 41% 49% 40% 40% 32% 52% 59%40% % 53% 57% 44% 38% 58% 59% 31% 25% 18% 42% 56% 27% 34% Total Dem Gain

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 15 Message Conclusions – I ► This fight needs to be about more than Democrats’ desire to spend more money than President Bush (even on popular programs). ► GOP/Bush willingness to spend on Iraq but not at home is a powerful critique and party contrast. ► BUT the best positive statements of Democrats’ priorities are investing in the nation’s future and putting the middle class first. ► Health care and homeland security are especially strong terrain for early fights.

Winning The Battle Of Budget – September 2007/Hart Research 16 Message Conclusions – II ► Democrats are fighting for people, not dollars: children insured, jobs created, ports secured, first responders hired, etc. ► Examples of Democratic-initiated cuts in wasteful spending and budget reforms (earmark transparency) will enhance credibility. ► $22 billion = just a 1% disagreement does not help: why should voters care?

National survey-1,328 voters, Three focus groups-swing voters September 2007 HART RESEARCH P e t e r D ASSOTESCIA Winning The Battle Of Budget: Framing The Best Case In The Upcoming Appropriations Fights Research conducted for Americans United, AFSCME, and USAction