Innovations preparing for the Population and Housing Census 2021 in Latvia Peteris Vegis Deputy Director Social Statistics Department UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting, Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015

Content Introduction The Action Plan for 2021 Population and Housing Census (PHC) preparation and organization Activities of the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia (CSB) Social Statistics Data Warehouse Annual estimates of resident population 2015 Micro-census Evaluation of administrative data quality System of indicators Activities of the Ministry of Education and Science (MES) Activities of the State Revenue Service (SRS) Activities of the Population Register (PR) Activities of the State Land service (SLS) Conclusions Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 2

Introduction Decision of the Cabinet of Ministers of Latvia to organize the PHC 2021 using administrative data sources and regular sample surveys of the CSB of Latvia in 2012; Inter-ministerial Working Group established by the Ministry of Economics in 2012 that continues its’ work constantly; The Action Plan for PHC 2021 preparation and organization approved by the Cabinet of Ministers of Latvia in June 2015; Constant monitoring of the implementation of this Action Plan and submission of an informative report on the results to the Cabinet of Ministers of Latvia once a year by March 15 (starting from 2016). Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 3

The Action Plan for 2021 PHC preparation and organization CSB of Latvia 1. Establishment and maintenance of Data Warehouse necessary for Social Statistics; 2. Annual estimation of the resident population; micro-census organization and performance to properly assess the population counts; 4. Evaluation of administrative data availability, quality and data consistency; 5. Working out of the system of indicators. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 4

Social Statistics Data Warehouse The aim of the Social Statistics Data Warehouse – a single administrative data warehouse for the use in Social Statistics. Three terms constituting the system base units: data source table data Data warehouse is user friendly. Further functionality improvement - complex links between tables within a single source or multiple sources defined, automatic data repair function available. New features - aggregated data processing, advanced reporting functionality, use of a common classifier ensured, unique identifiers embedded in the system, multi-period analysis, various qualitative and quantitative protocols and reports. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 5

2011 PHC results in comparison with the Population Register Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 6

Annual estimates of resident population Certain conditions had to be taken into account: Estimation of the total number of population and also the international migration (immigration and emigration) is needed; Data on population is necessary in small groups (both for national and international data users): by sex and age (one year age group); by territorial units by three main age groups; by regions by one year age group; international long term emigration and immigration by sex, one year age group etc. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 7

Annual estimates of resident population Calculation method: The aim of the model is to predict the probability of being a resident for each individual. The Logistic regression model had been developed to evaluate the residence status. With the help of administrative data sources, on each person registered within the Population Register there are more than 200 characteristics variables developed. Detailed information about the methodology is available on CSB web page: Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 8

Annual estimates of resident population CSB has access to data from following administrative data sources: State Revenue Service (SRS); State Social Insurance Agency (SSIA); Ministry of Education and Science (MES); Agricultural Data Centre (ADC); Rural Support Service (LRSS); National Health Service (NHS); State Employment Agency (SEA); Biggest Universities of Latvia (UL); Road Traffic Safety Directorate (RTSD); Latvian Prison Administration(LPA); Public libraries (PL). Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 9

Annual estimates of resident population Evaluation of the preciseness of estimation of the number of population: Comparison of the prepared evaluation with: respondents in CSB surveys (LFS, EU-SILC, EHSIS); persons, who have received social benefits from local governments in In total CSB of Latvia compared more than 200 thousand persons (10% of total number of population) at the beginning of Only about 1% were not included in the estimated number of population. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 10

2015 micro-census The main goal for the 2015 micro-census is to evaluate the method worked out by the CSB of Latvia for further improvement. 15 thsd. addresses (housing units) A two stage probabilistic sampling design Usual residents on 1st of January 2015, on 1st of September 2015, expected on 1st of January 2016 Besides: Educational attainment – higher education for persons 20+ obtained abroad. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 11

Evaluation of administrative data availability, quality and data consistency Administrative data that describe the economic characteristics; Administrative data characterizing the demography as well as households (including family matrix); Estimation/imputation methodology to link population / usual residence / housing unit; Pilot Census Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 12

Working out of the system of indicators Core topics in accordance with the Regulation (EC) No 763/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 9 July 2008 on population and housing censuses. Data estimation methodology for indicators and population groups, for which there are no complete data available in administrative data sources: - educational attainment of immigrants / persons who studied abroad, - family status - defining of kinship and cohabiting partners, - data on employment («black» economy), - place of work etc. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 13

The Action Plan for 2021 PHC preparation and organization Ministry of Education Creation of a register for universities’ and colleges’ students and graduates of these institutions. State Revenue Service Data collection on occupation and data transmission to the CSB of Latvia. Population Register Software development designed with the aim of providing higher quality information for 2021 census program and for an annual population estimates. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 14

The Action Plan for 2021 PHC preparation and organization State Land Service of Latvia 1. Data availability and data quality improvement in the Real Estate State Cadastre Information System (RESC IS): Utilities (Water supply system, toilet facilities, bathing facilities, type of heating); Year of construction; Registration of building; Self-declaration system. 2. Improvements of the State Address Register (SAR). Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 15

Conclusions Transition to the Population and Housing Census using only administrative data moving away from CAWI and CAPI is a serious challenge. This requires sufficient human resources and finances. Dependency on financial resources: no finances, improvement postponed. Good co-operation with holders of administrative data is crucial. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 16

Conclusions The evaluated number of population – official number of population in Latvia - is the only one used for national and international purposes in statistics. Use of the CSB survey data in the evaluation of the quality of estimation of the number of population. The CSB continues the work to improve preciseness of the worked out model. Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 17

Conclusions Activities included in the Action Plan will not only provide an opportunity to make the 2021 census as a register based census, but will also contribute to the core functions of the involved institutions: the fight against the shadow economy (the SRS activities); the higher education system arrangement (the MES activities); a housing self - declaration system alignment (the SLS activities); Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 18

Conclusions RESC IS data availability and quality improvement (the SLS activities); SAR data availability and quality improvement (the SLS activities); Improvement of regular social statistics survey organization in the CSB including a wider use of the administrative data warehouse, to reduce the respondent burden and improve the data quality (activities of the CSB). Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015 UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting 19

Thank you for your attention! UN ECE/Eurostat Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses Seventeenth Meeting, Geneva, 30 September to 2 October 2015