DIAMET meeting 7 th-8th March 2011 “New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems” Seonaid Dey Supervisors: Bob Plant, Nigel Roberts.

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Presentation transcript:

DIAMET meeting 7 th-8th March 2011 “New tools for the evaluation of convective scale ensemble systems” Seonaid Dey Supervisors: Bob Plant, Nigel Roberts and Stefano Migliorini

Introduction Project aims Case study of 08/07/2011 Current work Future plans

Project aims Link statistical measures such as multivariate covariances with physical processes and spatial verification measures Investigate how deterministic techniques can be extended to ensembles Look into meteorological aspects and scales that are useful for determining predictability

Work so far 1: 08/07/2011 Convective precipitation Flooding MOGREPS-UK 2.2km 12 member ensemble

Work so far 2: Spatial measures All member pairs Member-radar pairs Fractions skill score (FSS) 1- perfect match 0- totally different

Work so far 3: correlations Vertical (spatial) correlations 3D Fields: Horizontal Divergence Horizontal wind speed Rain rates Wind shear Field 1 Field 2 z

Work so far 4: example correlation 09:00- Before precipitation12:00 - During precipitation

Next steps Spatial horizontal correlations Relate correlations to spatial measures Spatially varying FSS Other cases Large scale forcing (DIAMET) Local forcing (COPE)

Fractions skill score 1.Select threshold 2.Convert field to binary 3.Count fractions within neighbourhood 4.Compare fractions to calculate MSE, compare with reference forecast Courtesy of Nigel Roberts

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