Esther Spanjer, M-Systems

Competing Technologies: HDD vs Flash Flash Advantages Volume/GB Mass/GB Shock resistance Power Consumption HDD Advantages Total Capacity $/GB Read/Write Speed No re-writing limits John Buttress,IDC

Key Specs: How Good is ‘Good Enough?’ Example: MP3 Players with HDD –Read ahead into DRAM for 20~32MB (~6sec), then power turned off. –= Non-op shock ruggedness, and power consumption minimized. 1.0” HDD avg. usage specs are in-class. 1.0” HDDFlash Memory Performance Read avg (MB/s) Write avg (MB/s) Power (mW) Idle602.9 Read (256K blocks )57782 Write (256K blocks) Ruggedness Non-Operating Shock 2000g Operating Shock200g2000g RewritesUnlimited 2 Limited: 100~300K cycles Notes: 1)Source: JP Morgan, Oct-04. 2)HDD manufacturers do not specify a limit to the number of times bits can be re-written. 3)Above are industry average specifications – individual performance by manufacturer/product may vary. Andy Higginbotham, Western Digital

Charles Lee, INTEL Visibility for scaling of floating gate clear to 32 nm Forms high “hurdle” for new technologies to leap 1986/1.5µm 1988/1.0µm 1991/0.8µm 1993/0.6µm 1996/0.4µm 1998/0.25µm 2000/0.18µm 2002/0.13µm 2004/90nm Moore’s Law” Continues with Floating Gate NVM 2006/65nm 2008/45nm 90 nm cell is 1/476 th of 1.5 µm cell

Flash Can Make HDDs Better Too Hybrid Drive for Longhorn chipset Digital Consumer Ideas for HDD/Flash Synergies Microsoft, WinHEC 2004 Don Barnetson, Samsung

System Cost vs. # of MB 10x 100x Jim Handy, SEMICO

Format Miniaturization Smaller, sub-Pico sliders –Challenging flyheight parameters –Refined flexure designs, capabilities –Improved processing, robustness Smaller disks and actuator system –Higher effective stiffnesses –Secondary focus on windage, resonance Jeffry Bennin, Hutchinson

Maximized Box Capacity… High areal density heads –ESD robustness Anti-static coatings Low resistance slider/preamp grounds –Transmission line performance Impedance matched lead designs Low loss materials and designs Active system components –High lead counts for dynamic fly- height actuators Jeffry Bennin, Hutchinson

Summary and Conclusions Today, 1 Inch HDD Offer Best $/GB, 1/3 X Flash NAND Flash: Rapid Technology Progress, AD Exceeds Moore’s Law Future $/GB Flash Has Potential Toward Lower $/GB But Continued Rapid Technology Progress In Flash Doubtful HDD Must Accelerate AD Growth, Flash Must Increase Rewrite Cyles >1.0 Inch FF HDD, High Risk Competitive With Flash, But Mobile Phone Volumes Worth The Risk Same Component Technology (Heads and Media) High Volumes Equals Low Cost In The Mobile/Consumer Market, Flash and SFF HDD Will Continue To Coexist Ed Grochowski