How Did Metro Boston Grow? – Spatial Database Management and Advanced GIS Final Presentation Group Members: Amy Jacobi, Eric Schultheis, Nse Umoh, Rob Goodspeed, Samira Thomas Prof. Joseph Ferreira

Presentation Outline Project Goals Process Methodology Results Conclusions

PROJECT GOALS

Project Goals Evaluate growth patterns in the metro-Boston between 2000 and Compare observed growth in the last decade with the MetroFuture scenarios: Let It Be and Winds of Change. Understand the effect of observed growth on greenhouse gas emissions by private vehicles.

PROCESS

Process Map Land Use Polygons (1999 & 2005) Census Block Populations ‘Non-Residential’ Block Finder Allocation Model Allocation to 250m Grid MetroFuture Scenarios (TAZs) Results Allocation to TAZ Allocation to Residential Areas Allocation to Sensible Geographies Input Data Evaluating Growth in metro-Boston Allocation to 25m Grid Geoprocessing VMT (205m Grid)

METHODOLOGY

Conflicting Topographies: An Example Area

Conflicting Topographies

The Grid(s)

Resolving Conflicts with the Grid (25m)

Allocation to Residential Areas Identify residential and institutional land uses. Identify blocks that do not intersect residential land use areas. Land use allocation –Sliver Finder Integrate Census Blocks (2000, 2010) and residential land uses Calculate areas, perimeter, and area/perimeter ratio Eliminate features with areas less than 400 sqm and area/perimeter ratio less than 1 –Population/housing unit allocation model (Access) P aloc = P * (A + L) / 2 A = land use area % of total area of Block, L = land use area % of residential area in Block

Model to Identify Block that do not Intersect with Residential Areas Model to Allocate to Residential Areas ArcGIS Models: Allocating to Residential Areas

Allocation to Residential Areas

Merge allocated residential areas with ‘missed’ blocks forming an allocated areas polygon file. Calculate the number of 25m grid centroids that fall in each allocated areas polygon. Identify allocated areas polygons with no 25m grid centroids. Convert the allocated areas polygons to 25m grid celss. Aggregate allocated 25m grid cells to 250m grid cells (add in population missed by 25m grid method). Aggregate allocated 25m grid cells to TAZs (add in population missed by 25m grid method). Allocation to Sensible Geographies

ArcGIS Models: Allocating to Sensible Geographies Model to Merge Habitable Area and Populated Blocks with no Residential Area. Model to Allocate to 25m Grid and then Aggregate to 250m Grid (due to resolution of 25m grid, metro-Boston area must be divided into 32 slivers and the model needs to be ran for each sliver )

Allocation to Sensible Geographies

Comparing & MassGIS Allocations

Census 2000Census 2010 Regional Block Data From Census 4,317,3334,465,821 Grid Cell Allocation4,292,1664,426,075 Percent Allocated99.42%99.11% The Allocation: A Regional View

RESULTS

Metro Boston Population by Community Type

Metro Boston Population Proportion by Community Type

Metro Boston Housing Units By Community Type

Metro Boston Housing Units Proportion, by Community Type

Change in Proportion of Population in CODAs, since 2000

Population Change (Percent & Raw) by Town, since 2000

Housing Unit Change (Percent & Raw) by Town, since 2000

Histogram of Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Grid Cell

Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Community Type Community Type Average VMT per Household Minimum VMT per Household Maximum VMT per Household Standard Deviation of VMT per Household Inner Core Maturing Suburbs Regional Urban Centers Developing Suburbs Metro Future Region

Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by Community Type & CODA

Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled by CODA TAZ TYPE Average VMT per Household Minimum VMT per Household Maximum VMT per Household Standard Deviation of VMT per Household Non-CODA CODA Metro Future Region

Population Change by CODA, since 2000

Growth by Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Area Type VMT Type Average VMT per Household Very Low<7000 Low ,000 Medium10,001-13,000 High13,001-18,000 Very High>18,000

Growth by Average Household Vehicle Miles Traveled Area Type

VMT Type Average VMT per Household % of Region (Area) % of Regional Growth Very Low<70001%3% Low ,00019%53% Medium10,001-13,00048%22% High13,001-18,00030%17% Very High>18,0002%5% The two lowest VMT categories (less than 10,000 miles per Household per year), which accounted for 20% of the regions is land, contained 56% of the region’s growth over the past decade. Greenfield development, which occurred in 3% of the region’s area, contributed 43% of the population growth for the metro-Boston region. The average household VMT for these cells was over 1,000 miles higher than the average household VMT for the metro-Boston region (13,186 vs. 12,037).

CONCLUSIONS