12/7/ xx Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Defendant: KLAS WALLENIUS Opponent: Prof. MIECZYSLAW M. KOKAR, Northeastern University, Boston Defense of Doctoral Thesis January 27, 2006

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Correction p. 156 [Wallenius, 2004] Klas Wallenius. On support for situation awareness in command and control. In Proc. Seventh International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2004), Stockholm Sweden, June 28 to July 1, In press.

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Outline The PhD Project The work supported: Effects- Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and Data Fusion DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control The common situation model Command support Decision support Example Case: Riots at a Summit Conclusions and Further Work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Outline The PhD Project The work supported: Effects- Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and Data Fusion DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control The common situation model Command support Decision support Example Case: Riots at a Summit Conclusions and Further Work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations The PhD Project September 2000 – September 2005 Performed In Parallel and Scientific Computing Institute At School of Computer Science and Communication, Royal Institute of Technology Sponsors Vinnova Saab Systems Supervisors Prof. Stefan Arnborg, Nada Prof. Berndt Brehmer, the Swedish Defence Research Agency Involved in the work Decision Support Group at Nada DISCCO Project Group at Saab Systems Contact Group at Saab Systems

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Outline The PhD Project The work supported: Effects- Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and Data Fusion DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control The common situation model Command support Decision support Example Case: Riots at a Summit Conclusions and Further Work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Driving events: Berlin Wall, Estonia, World Trade Center, Madrid, Asia, Storm and Power Failure.. Change in threats New missions New technology Background: Changed Threats in the world

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations The Swedish Network- Based Defence No current threats to Swedish territory Reduced number of forces Methodology and technology transition Cooperate with other organizations Based on ‘Network Centric Warfare’ and the ‘Revolution in Military Affairs’ Common Situation Awareness Decision Superiority Adaptable Organization Precision Engagement It has been claimed that superior information will increase effects tremendously

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations People involved in management of operations Military commanders and soldiers Rescue workers Incident commanders Police Crisis management Etc.

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Time span of decision-making during long-term crisis preparation Individuals with wearable equipment Groups in mobile units Crisis and operation management in staffs. Meeting context. Long term planning in normal office environments. Time for decision- making Days Hours Seconds Minutes Months Local Authorities Municipalities County Administrative Board National Authorities Government Ministries EU UN

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Time span of decision-making during an upcoming crisis Individuals with wearable equipment Groups in mobile units Crisis and operation management in staffs. Meeting context. Long term planning in normal office environments. Time for decision- making Days Hours Seconds Minutes Months Local Authorities Municipalities County Administrative Board National Authorities Government Ministries EU UN

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Time span of decision-making during a military operation Individuals with wearable equipment Groups in mobile units Crisis and operation management in staffs. Meeting context. Large scale planning in normal office environments. Time for decision- making Days Hours Seconds Minutes Months Small units Larger units Joint Headquarters Battlegroup Supreme Commander Government Ministry of Defence EU UN Army, Air Force, and Naval Headquarters

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations A process for obtaining a desired strategic outcome on the enemy, through the synergistic, multiplicative, and cumulative application of the full range of military and non-military capabilities at the tactical, operational, and strategical levels. US Joint Forces Command Glossary Effects-Based Operations

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Effects-Based Management of Operations An interpretation from a decision-making perspective: Make optimal use of available resources to achieve effects according the task. The act of making decisions for subordinated resources regarding tasks and organization How to develop technical tools supporting this work? Both Civilian and Military Applications

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations EBO should consider effects beyond tactical goals Facilitate the consideration of conflicting interests and goals in different dimensions Human lives Democratic rights Infrastructure Economy Main question: What if? Inherently uncertain – consider risks!

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Decision-Making Prescriptive Theories Decision Theory Game Theory Bayesian Approaches Descriptive Theories Cognitive Psychology Distributed Cognition Naturalistic Decision-Making (Klein, 1989) Military Decision-Making Methods “Guide-Lines for Operational Planning” (GOP) “Bedömandemallen” “Planning under Time Pressure” (Thunholm, 2003) Evolve Task What? Evolve Solutions How? Predict Outcome Compare to Task Make Decision

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Outline The PhD Project The work supported: Effects- Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and Data Fusion DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control The common situation model Command support Decision support Example Case: Riots at a Summit Conclusions and Further Work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Artifacts to Improve Situation Awareness Hugin and Munin ('thought' and 'memory') – Odin’s two ravens Crystal Balls Sauron’s Palantirs Galadriel’s Mirror The Marauder’s MapThe Chain Home Radar System

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Data Fusion Radar Infa Red Sensor GPS ESM Data Fusion Data Fusion is the process of combining data or information to estimate or predict entity states. Steinberg and Bowman 2001

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Type: F16 Data Fusion: The Multi-Sensor Tracker

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Local Air Pictures

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations A Common Air Picture

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations WASP – The Wide Area Situation Picture

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and the JDL Model Mica Endsley (1985) Joint Directors of Laboratories

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and the JDL Model

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and the JDL Model

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and the JDL Model

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Info on own and collaborating forces Info on other forces L3: Projection Potential intentions and their consequences L2: Relations Virtual objects, aggregation, organization L1: Physical Entities Separate objects L0: Observations Uninterpreted data DISCCO Command Support and the Common Situation Model DISCCO Decision Support Sensors, Reconnaissance Levels of Information and Tools Supporting Shared SA DISCCO Decision Support Multi-Sensor Data Fusion Information Fusion DISCCO Decision Support

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Multi-Modal, Ubiquitous and Intelligent User Interfaces L0: Reports Techniques Supporting Situation Awareness L1: Objects WASP L2: Relations Common Situation Model L3: Projection Influence Diagram What If-Calculations Human Assessments Agent-Based Simulations Expert Systems Situation Assessment Ontologies and Agent- Based Techniques Multi-Sensor Fusion MST WASP Correlators Sensors Radar, IR, GPS, … Human Reporters Decision Evaluation Human Assessments Multi-Attribute Utilities (Game Theory)

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations A Common Situation Model Time for decision- making Days Hours Seconds Minutes Months L3: Projection L2: Relations L1: Physical Resources L0: Observations The Common Situation Model

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Outline The PhD Project The work supported: Effects- Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and Data Fusion DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control The common situation model Command support Decision support Example Case: Riots at a Summit Conclusions and Further Work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control A Common Situation Model Command Support Decision Support

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations A Generic Approach Goals, tasks, resources, are relevant concepts, irrespective of managed domain Similar tools, methods, and info, across the dynamic organization Adaptable to specific tasks Facilitates flexible interoperability and cost-effective solutions Complementary to specialized applications Open problem space More time From the human perspective

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations The Ontology: A Vocabulary for Describing Situations Represents The dynamic networked based organization of resources, tasks and plans What is known of friendly and other forces From highest to lowest decision levels

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations An Example Under OPCOM (Role) Transport (Service) Attack (Service) 101 Mech. Bn (Resource) Transport (Capability) Attack (Capability) 10 Mech. Bde (Resource) Local Police (Resource) Some Material (Resource) Support With Transports (Role) Transport (Service) Transport (Task)

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations An Example Under OPCOM (Role) Transport (Service) Attack (Service) 101 Mech. Bn (Resource) Transport (Capability) Attack (Capability) 10 Mech. Bde (Resource) Local Police (Resource) Some Material (Resource) Support With Transports (Role) Transport (Service) Transport (Task) GFOR Order of Battle (Plan) 10 Brigade Battle Plan (Plan) Police’s Current Dispatches (Plan)

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Command Support

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Command Support Tools Support for navigating and maintaining the common model of the situation Provide support to describe and visualize problems and solutions in different views Once a solution (= a plan) is described it could be the subject for evaluation, as well as the baseline for an execution order Integrates planning and execution phases

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Decision Support

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Decision Support Tools Enhance the human process to generate and evaluate solutions Support evaluation also during execution Gradual development of simulation and AI technology

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Predicted Effects from Expert Systems What if Expert System or a Simulator Combination Of Actions P(Effects) P (Situation) P (Behavior) While the expert systems are domain specific, DISCCO may be kept general The results from the questions are stored in influence diagrams, maintaining a causal model between actions and effects

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations An ID represented in GENIE connected to the simulator

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Going From a Chance Node to a ’Probabar’ OK (Casualties = 0) Compromised (0 < Casualties ≤ 100) Severe (100 ≤ Casualties) 52 % 38 % 10 % Goal: No Casualties

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Outline The PhD Project The work supported: Effects-Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and Data Fusion DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control The common situation model Command support Decision support Example Case: Riots at a Summit Conclusions and Further Work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Example Problem: Riots at a Summit Peaceful demonstrations and protests at a summit that degenerate into riots The security operation is managed by the police or by the military Protecting the right to demonstrate, human lives, the security of the top meeting, and private property, impose conflicting goals Psychological and social reactions must be considered

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations DISCCO Protect Meeting & VIP No Casualties Right to Demonstrate Capture Troublemakers Protect Infrastructure OkCompromisedSevere Summit Overall priorities Legend Outcome Probabilities Peaceful Demonstrants Troublemakers Own Units Protected Object VIP_1 VIP_2

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations DISCCO Protect Meeting & VIP No Casualties Right to Demonstrate Capture Troublemakers Protect Infrastructure OkCompromisedSevere Summit Overall priorities Legend Outcome Probabilities Peaceful Demonstrants Troublemakers Own Units Protected Object VIP_1 VIP_2

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations DISCCO Protect Meeting & VIP No Casualties Right to Demonstrate Capture Troublemakers Protect Infrastructure OkCompromisedSevere Summit Overall priorities Legend Outcome Probabilities Peaceful Demonstrants Troublemakers Own Units Protected Object VIP_1 VIP_2 Send Instructions

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations DISCCO Protect Meeting & VIP No Casualties Right to Demonstrate Capture Troublemakers Protect Infrastructure OkCompromisedSevere Summit Overall priorities Legend Outcome Probabilities Peaceful Demonstrants Troublemakers Own Units Protected Object VIP_1 VIP_2

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Example of an Embedded Agent-Based Simulator

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations An ID represented in GENIE connected to the simulator

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Outline The PhD Project The work supported: Effects- Based Management of Operations Situation Awareness and Data Fusion DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control The common situation model Command support Decision support Example Case: Riots at a Summit Conclusions and Further Work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations DISCCO: Scope and Solved Problems Support a higher order situation awareness, including Own, hostile, allied and hostile units, important objects Available capabilities Assigned and assumed tasks and intents, organization Monitoring and predicting effects and risks Facilitate fast planning and re-planning on the fly ”What if” - design a plan and predict its effects Issuing orders based on the plan Reorganize in real time Enable collaboration between command levels and among peers Admit reuse of software and skills between different positions and activities

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Currently Investigated Cases Time for decision- making Days Hours Minutes Months Tactical Command: Establish Surveillance Tactical Command: Riot Control Seconds Joint Forces Command: Planning for NBC Defence

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations A roadmap for the development of DISCCO Support for describing situation, tasks. Issuing orders Dependent actions, uncertain information Evaluation and monitoring of plans through all phases Support for gene- rating excellent plans Bayesian networks and game theory Situation model: ontology and distributed database Integration with other services Command Support (Methodology and HMI) Learning Algorithms Decision Support (Technology) Situation picture GIS Information Fusion Security Authentication Embedded agent- based simulation Graphical Planning Plan Evaluation Plan Generation Risk Assessment

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Continued Efforts Research ROMEO – Research on Management of Effective Operations Industrial Development Work on DISCCO Hopefully this thesis provides a solid baseline for this work

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Main Contributions in the Thesis A definition of ’Effects-Based Managament of Operations’ The WASP approach to maintain a common situation picture The common situation model A classification of the contents and tools to maintain it A definition of information quality A generic ontology Examples of command support to manually maintain the model Examples of decision support to predict effects of actions Use of monte carlo simulation and influence diagrams A preference function Visualisation of effects in accordance to the task Three case studies

Klas Wallenius: Generic Support for Decision-Making in Effects-Based Management of Operations Published Material [Arnborg et. al. 2000] Stefan Arnborg, Henrik Artman, Joel Brynielsson, and Klas Wallenius. Information Awareness in Command and Control: Precision, Quality, Utility. In Proceedings Third International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2000), pp. ThB1/25–32, Paris, July [Wallenius, 2000] Klas Wallenius. A Network Centric Info-Structure for the Swedish Armed Forces. In Milinf 2000, Enköping, Sweden, [Wallenius, 2000a] Klas Wallenius. Use of Modern Information Technology: WASP - A Common View of the Situation. In Technet Europe, 21st AFCEA Europe Symposium & Exposition, Prague, the Czech Republic, [Bergman and Wallenius, 2001] Niclas Bergman and Klas Wallenius. Providing the Common View of the Situation – the WASP Approach. In Information Management Challenges in Achieving Coalition Interoperability, Quebec City, Canada, May 29-30, [Brynielsson and Wallenius, 2001] Joel Brynielsson and Klas Wallenius. Game Environment for Command and Control Operations (GECCO). In Proceedings of the First International Workshop on Cognitive Research With Microworlds, pages 85–95, Granada, Spain, November [Brynielsson and Wallenius, 2003] Joel Brynielsson and Klas Wallenius. A Toolbox for Multi- Attribute Decision-Making. Technical Report TRITA-NA-0307, Department of Numerical Analysis and Computer Science, Royal Institute of Technology, [Huang et al., 2003] Qi Huang, Jenny Hållmats, Klas Wallenius, and Joel Brynielsson. Simulation-Based Decision Support for Command and Control in Joint Operations. In European Simulation Interoperability Workshop 2003, 03E-SIW-091, pages , Stockholm, Sweden, June 16-19, [Wallenius, 2002] Klas Wallenius. A Generic Model of Management and Command and Control. In Proceedings of 7th International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, Loews Le Concorde Hotel, Quebec City, QC, Canada, September 16-20, [Wallenius, 2003] Klas Wallenius. DISCCO – Decision Support for Command and Control. In CIMI Enköping Sweden, May 20-22, [Wallenius, 2004] Klas Wallenius. Support for situation awareness in command and control. In Per Svensson and Johan Schubert, editors, Proceedings of the Seventh International Conference on Information Fusion (FUSION 2004), Stockholm Sweden, June 28 to July 1, [Wallenius, 2004a] Klas Wallenius. DISCCO: Generic Support for C2 and Decision-Making. In Proceedings of 2004 Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, San Diego, California, June [Wallenius, 2004b] Klas Wallenius. Generic Support for Decision-Making in Management and Command and Control. Licentiate thesis, Department of Numerical Analysis and Computer Science, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden, May [Wallenius, 2005] Klas Wallenius. Decision Support for Effects-Based Operations. In Proceedings of Second International Conference on Military Technology. Stockholm, Sweden, October 25-26, [Suzic and Wallenius, 2005] Robert Suzić and Klas Wallenius. Effects Based Decision Support for Riot Control: Employing Influence Diagrams and Embedded Simulation. In proceedings of MILCOM 2005, Atlantic City, NJ, October 17-20, 2005.