Emerging Technologies for Homeland Security John Stammreich Vice President - Homeland Security Boeing Phantom Works October 2004

“Hard choices must be made in allocating limited resources. The U.S. government should identify and evaluate the transportation assets that need to be protected, set risk- based priorities for defending them, select the most practical and cost-effective ways of doing so, and then develop a plan, budget, and funding to implement the effort. The plan should assign roles and missions to the relevant authorities (federal, state, regional, and local) and to private stakeholders. In measuring effectiveness, perfection is unattainable. But terrorists should perceive that potential targets are defended. They may be deterred by a significant chance of failure." 9/11 Commission Recommendation

Needed Focus Balanced, Sensible Approach You can’t do everything or build a “perfect net” Focus on balancing effectiveness and affordability Responses should not cause more harm than the attack Low hanging fruit may have unintended consequences Proactive vs Reactive Detect early Quick, coordinated, decisive action Contain the threat as far away as possible Emphasize Deterrence vs Response Actively deter threat rather than wait for it Understand what influences and deters the enemy Requires collaboration and integration of information and resources Requires collaboration and integration of information and resources

LowHigh Low High Payoff (Symbolic + Economic + Coercive Value Factors) Downside Threat is discouraged Incentivized Threat Deterrence View ( Cost + Difficulty + Backlash ) Reduce Impact: Detect Prevent Localize Mitigate Contain Reassure Create Uncertainty: Intelligence, Sensors, Interdiction, Forensics, Attribution, Retribution

Automated cognitive knowledge management Interoperability of new & legacy systems Networked broadband communications Visualization software highlights key information Effectiveness of the net increases with number of sensors (Metcalf’s law) Network Centric Operations Information access and knowledge management allows decision making to move from reactive to proactive Information access and knowledge management allows decision making to move from reactive to proactive “Getting the right information to right elements at the right time”

NCO Enabling Technologies & Origins Web portal/ data access User customized windows/displays Publish/ subscribe infosphere Interactive database access Database driven displays Variable message format Information security/ encryption Role-based access Multi-level security Collaborative chat Fast contextual search Data mining/data correlation engines M&S-based Decision aids Interoperable communications Ad hoc mobile networks Demand-based comm bandwidth CommercialMilitaryTechnologies XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX XXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Leveraging Commercial Information Technology Spiral evolution of existing nets is underway Ad hoc systems currently used to navigate around existing stovepipes Normal requirements/modeling/development chain bypassed JWID ’04 case study, Combatant Commands as early adopters Enhanced data mining / Information Management running commercial industry The future: Swarming nets keep growing Threat Correlation, Cognitive Knowledge Management / Decision Aids migrating from commercial industry Natural Selection - Biological vs traditional DoD model Commercial forces & practices will dominate NCO

Implications for Homeland Security Understanding the nature of the threat and deterrence are key to affordability. The search for the “holy grail” silver bullet sensor is giving way to layered sensors. Greatest payoff will be in the area of automated cognitive information systems which can share and collaborate. New HLS capabilities will come from technology push rather than requirements pull. Improvements in information management and collaboration will come from the commercial world at their own pace. Collaborative capabilities swarming nets and mobil ad hoc communications will spontaneously break through organizational or cultural barriers.

Policy Implications Complementary advances are being made in both Commercial and DoD networked worlds and they are bootstrapping each other. To achieve the situational and domain awareness necessary to contain terrorism, we need to take advantage of the natural dynamic of the networked world. The current top down, scripted architecture driven R&D development cycle is an artificial overlay on net development. Spiral evolution, infused with technology breakthroughs, is synergistic to the natural evolution of the net. The Net Generation and the net entities they spawn will collaborate regardless of structure to achieve success The Net Generation and the net entities they spawn will collaborate regardless of structure to achieve success