Inflation’s Impact In The 1970’s WINNERS BORROWERS INVESTORS IN REAL ESTATE INDIVIDUALS WITH HIGH SKILLS AND/OR JOB MOBILITY INDIVIDUALS EMPLOYED IN GROWTH.

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Presentation transcript:

Inflation’s Impact In The 1970’s WINNERS BORROWERS INVESTORS IN REAL ESTATE INDIVIDUALS WITH HIGH SKILLS AND/OR JOB MOBILITY INDIVIDUALS EMPLOYED IN GROWTH AND HIGH- TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES MOST GOVERNMENT TAX COLLECTORS LOSERS LENDERS INVESTORS IN FINANCIAL ASSETS INDIVIDUALS WITH FIXED INCOME AND/OR NO JOB MOBILITY INDIVIDUALS IN MATURE AND/OR ENERGY-INEFFICIENT INDUSTRIES MOST TAXPAYERS AND SAVERS

The Wealth Transfer Effects Of Inflation

Effects Of Inflation On Existing-property Economics

Inflation Affects Existing And New Real Estate Developments Differently? SHORT-RUN IMPACT HIGHER COSTS OF FINANCING HIGHER COSTS OF GOODS AND SERVICES INTERMEDIATE IMPACT VACANCY RATES FALL RENTS INCREASE LONGER RUN IMPACT EXCESS DEMAND NEW INCENTIVES TO DEVELOP CYCLICAL SWING BACK (MAY OCCUR)

Three Elements To Protect Real Estate Parcels From Cyclical Factors : STRENGTH OF REAL ESTATE MARKET NATURE OF LEASE CONTRACTS FINANCING RATES AND TERMS

Impact Of Inflation, By Land Use URBAN LAND AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST LAND RESIDENTIAL PARCELS - OWNER-OCCUPIED UNITS - MULTI-FAMILY PARCELS COMMERCIAL SPACE

Unanticipated Inflation Is the Greatest Economic Risk

Important Inflation Related Concepts ANTICIPATED VS. UNANTICIPATED INFLATION RELATIVE REAL RATE OF RETURN AMONG VARIOUS ASSETS - REAL ECONOMICS - TAX EFFECTS

Expected Inflation, Real And Nominal Interest Rates, And Capital Market Equilibrium A CHANGE IN THE EXPECTED RATE OF INFLATION MAY CHANGE THE REAL RATE OF INTEREST CHANNELS FOR THE CHANGE IN THE REAL RATE OF INTEREST ARE: - INCOME SAVINGS EFFECTS - WEALTH EFFECTS

Inflation and the After Tax Real Rate Of Interest

Note That Inflation has no impact in principle. Tax bracket creep changes above conclusion. Depreciation effects also alter investment criterion. Lower required real rate of return.