What are the most efficient measures of mitigation and adaptation to produce more in a sustainable manner? Dr. Ada Ignaciuk, Agricultural Policy Analyst, Environmental Division of Trade and Agriculture Directorate, OECD

Scenario analysis - socio-economic developments - climate - technology projections 1) OECD’s short-medium term projections ‘OECD-FAO Outlook’ 2) OECD’s long term projections

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook Agricultural Outlook - a set of conditional projections published in an OECD-FAO annual report Comprehensive, dynamic partial equilibrium model Dedicated OECD-FAO web page:

Co-operators Program Involve member governments in global projection process – to link expertise world wide and build consensus on emerging national and global issues – Participate in annual world commodity projection – Access to data, models, commodity experts – Participate in analysis projects – Access to capacity building – training – Tap global expertise

Climate damages 5 OECD (2010)

6 Climate Change costs

Market outlook: prices OECD Trade and Agriculture Directorate 7 % change in average (real) prices to “ prices above last decade”

Prices 8

Zooming into Mexican (irrigated) yields 9

Land use 10

11 Autonomous adaptation e.g. changing cropping patterns, changing varieties Changes in management practices e.g. no-till More efficient management of inputs Improved water management Adaptation -on field Adaptation - different governance Provide information on e.g. weather and provide advisory services Biofuels R&D Improved soil management Mitigation and adaptation plans Diversify livelihood Insurances Shift production Changes in management of manure Mitigation Adding legumes Agroforestry

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Conclusions Climate change will affect agricultural production; but still many uncertainties To align adaptation and mitigation policies now, across different governance levels Holistic approach to climate policies to avoid maladaptation practices Climate change may be a challenge for some, but opportunities for others 13

Summary, databases, podcasts, commodity focus Contacts and links Access to the Aglink-Cosimo collaborative site

15 OUTLINE Aglink-Cosimo Model Countries and Regions covered

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