NRC Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director 1 February 9, 2012

Outline Short Term Activities (FY12-13) –New Building –Computer Upgrade –AWIPS II Conversion Longer Term Activities –Support O2R (NCEP models running on research computers) –Expanding applications of multi-model ensembles (MME) –Expansion of operational models from space weather to ocean/coastal –Streamlining implementation process Summary 2

Major Tactical Efforts Once in a Lifetime –Move to NCWCP Once in a Career –AWIPS2 Transition Once in a Decade –Central Computer System (CCS) Transition and Acquisition (Bridge/New Contract) All occur in FY2012! 3 Major Thrusts for 2012

Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) OAR Air Resources Laboratory Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists Includes 468 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction 4

History of Construction 5 Groundbreaking March 2006 Construction start May 2007 Construction halted December NCWCP construction 80% complete In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court The Federal Court dismissed all remaining claims filed by the developer on February 9, 2011 These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project Work restarted April 6, 2011

Move Schedule February 2, 2012 – data center setup began! August 2012 – begin phased move-in –Front offices –Non-operational groups August 2012 – dual operations October 2012 – complete move September/October 2012 – ribbon-cutting ceremony 6 February 2, 2012 Data Center at NCWCP

7 Computer Upgrade

FY12FY13FY14FY15 Bridge Contract with IBM – Current Systems New Contract/Task Orders with IBM – New Systems Operations Transition activities DateMilestone Oct 2011Bridge contract in place supporting current systems Nov 2011New 10-year ID/IQ contract awarded to IBM Feb 2012Task Order 002 awarded – acquires new systems for the 5-year base period Feb 2012 – Aug 2013Transition to new systems and facilities Sep 2013Go live on new systems Major Milestones Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System WCOSS Milestones Overview FY16

WCOSS Overview Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System Current Systems under the Bridge contract –Two IBM Power/P6 systems –Gaithersburg, MD –Fairmont, WV New systems under the new ID/IQ contract –Two IBM systems Architecture and size TBD Undergoing task order contract actions –Reston, VA –Orlando, FL 9

NAWIPS to AWIPS II Conversion Status You are here NSHARP Baselined Multi-panel Display Product Generation You are here

11 Longer Term Activities

Supporting O2R NOAA Models/Computer Resources Recent changes supporting operational code on 5 computers in U.S. Three organizations in India running NCEP CFS and GFS models – Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) –India's National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) –Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services –Focus on seasonal-daily monsoon predictions 12

13 HPC DetailsAcctsAllocation Allocation Used Projects GAEA (NOAA) -Cray XT6 -ORNL -Oak Ridge, TN 376.2% of System resources (5.04M Core Hours per month) <10% Develop GDAS/GFS parallel capability-Moorthi Test GFS Semi-Lagrangian development-Moorthi CFSRL completion-Kistler GFS coupled atm/ocean testing-Saha T-Jet (NOAA) -Linux -GSD -Boulder, CO ~10HWRF – 1380 Cores GDAS – 5400 Cores HWRF – 2011: 4.7 M Corehours GDAS – 3000 Cores 2.0 M Core hrs in Q1 and Q2 FY12 HFIP/HWRF FY12 pre-implementation testing of 3-km moving nest HWRF ensembles-Tallapragada GFS Semi-Lagrangian development/testing for FY12 HFIP Demo and FY13 operational implementation-Moorthi/Yang Preliminary development of 4d-Var component of Hybrid DA— Kleist Preliminary testing of ENKF ensembles to week 1 & 2 medium range NWP-Zhu Hi-Res Rapid Refresh (HRRR) testing for NextGen JIBB (NASA/NOAA) -Linux -JCSDA -GSFC, Greenbelt, MD 3 EMC 8 JCSDA 5 NASA 8 Univ. TBDNA Installation of operational GST, GSF Installation of Hybrid DAS Data Impact Assessment Experiments with current and new data assimilation systems S4 (NOAA) -Linux -NESDIS -Madison, WI 1 EMC 7 JCSDA 1 FFO TBDNA Global and Regional Satellite Data Assimilation Exp. CRTM Development Installation of Hybrid DA Satellite/sounding assessments Zeus (NOAA) -Linux -Fairmont, WV 24 NCEP early access accts 44.8% 10,790 cores 149 TFlops NA Systems acceptance (Feb 2012) Centers move all codes and data from Vapor to Zeus (by end of March 2012) Real-time/experimental HRRR

R&D HPC Overview Gaea Oak Ridge, TN Total capacity: ~77,800 cores 1.1 PFlops NCEP allocation 6.2%: ~4,800 cores 68.2 TFlops Next Major Event: Jan Full processor replacement Zeus Fairmont, WV Total capacity: 24,084 cores 333 TFlops NCEP allocation 44.8%: 10,790 cores 149 TFlops Next Major Event: Feb 2012 – System acceptance 11 January 2012 NCEP Utilization of NOAA R&D HPC - NCEP HPC RAC - v v1 14

NOAA Seamless Suite of Forecast Products Spanning Climate and Weather: Expanding Applications of MME 15 Climate/Weather Linkage ForecastUncertaintyForecastUncertainty Minutes Hours Days 1 Week 2 Week Months Seasons Years North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate Forecast System Forecast Lead Time Warnings & Alert Coordination Watches Forecasts Threats Assessments Guidance Outlook Benefits Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Ocean Model HYCOM Wave Watch III Global Forecast System North American Forecast Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation NARRE NCEP Model Perspective MaritimeMaritime Life & Property Space Operations RecreationRecreation EcosystemEcosystem EnvironmentEnvironment Emergency Mgmt AgricultureAgriculture Reservoir Control Energy Planning CommerceCommerce HydropowerHydropower Fire Weather HealthHealth AviationAviation Hurricane – GFDL, WRF GLOFS Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware EUROSIP

16 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Expansion into Space Weather and Coastal Prediction CFSv2 MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Hybrid Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 16 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% 1.7B Obs/Day NOS PORTS GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC Space Weather (Future) ENLIL Coupled (Future) Regional DA

17 Air Quality WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model Regional NAM WRF NMM North American Ensemble Forecast System Hurricane GFDL HWRF Global Forecast System Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT For eca st Severe Weather Rapid Update for Aviation Climate Short-Range Ensemble Forecast NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite Contributions from Outside of NCEP CFSv2 MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice NOAH Land Surface Model Coupled Global Data Assimilation Hybrid Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III NAM/CMAQ 17 Regional DA Satellites + Radar 99.9% 1.7B Obs/Day NOS PORTS GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC Space Weather (Future) ENLIL Coupled (Future) Regional DA

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19 Streamline Implementation Process

20 NOAA is working on: 1.Research to Operations Policy (complete) 2.An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location 3.A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations NOAA Research and Development Funnel Reference - “Research Location in NOAA: Physical and Social Sciences”. March 2006, 72 pp.

21 Launch List – Model Implementation Process EMC NCO R&D Operations Delivery Criteria Transition from Research to Operations Requirements EMC Schematics in the Model Transition Process OPS Life cycle Support Service Centers NOAA Research Concept of Operations Service Centers User Observation System Field Offices Effort EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability ASI, COLA, ARCS Operations to Research Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT

22 NCEPNCEP R2O 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 2 NOAA is well positioned to provide an operational infra- structure for the transition processes User Community R&D Community OPERATIONS 1 3 EMC/ GFDL CFS 5 4 O2A CTBCPCCTBCPC CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal) O2R R2O

Streamlining Implementation Process EMC NCO

Streamlining Implementation Process EMC NCO

Streamlining Implementation Process Net Result – Saving time(months/year) – Making process simpler by eliminating confusion/barriers to the outside (cited by UCAR Review) – Allowing for an increase in implementations per year 25

Summary Intense focus on FY12 tactical issues – Building move – Computer upgrade – AWIPS II conversion All activities noted above have major strategic importance NCEP supporting O2R to accelerate R2O We still have work to do/resources to allocate to address full role of NCEP in Roadmap plans (HFIP, NextGen) 26