Conflict Analysis 1. 2 - Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) - Central African Republic (jointly with the UN) - Chad - Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) - Guatemala.

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Presentation transcript:

Conflict Analysis 1

2 - Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) - Central African Republic (jointly with the UN) - Chad - Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) - Guatemala (led by the Delegation, in coordination with Member States) - Lebanon - Liberia - Libya - Syria -Northern Nigeria -Sudan -Yemen -Upcoming: Gulf of Guinea -Kenya -Somalia Some recent examples

3 SecurityPoliticalEconomicSocial International National Local Causes of conflict

4 Think about all the factors – political, economic, social etc. Structural and proximate causes Don’t worry about where in the grid, get it down Remember external factors Doing the grid

5 SecurityPoliticalEconomic / environment Social International- Weaknesses in regional response -Lake Chad National-Heavy handed security response -Weak capacity - Corruption - Poor governance -exclusive growth -Reliance on oil - Ethnic tensions Local- Weakening of traditional systems - Elite capture of Sharia -Poverty- Land rights

6 Stakeholder analysis

7

8 Resources and documents EU Staff Handbook for Operating in Situations of Conflict and Fragility EU guidance note on Conflict Analysis Ask your PSC rep for a copy of the Northern Nigeria conflict analysis and PFCA

9 Close

Causes What are political, economic, political, social, security or other factors that are structural (long term) or more proximate causes for current conflict dynamics? Stakeholders Who are the stakeholders acting or affected by the conflict? How are they related? What are their position, but also what are their (hidden) interests and sources of power? Drivers of peace What helps resilience against violence and escalation? What are the institutions or actors that promote peace? Conflict dynamics What is driving conflict and violence? Are their patterns and triggers for violence? What is the impact of the conflict(s)? Scenarios What are possible future developments? Which factors will determine future development in one or the other direction. Responses What has / is the EU doing? What are others doing? How can we assess this vis-à-vis the conflict dynamics? Options What priorities / objectives do we see to address the conflict? What are options to realise them?