“Services for older people – does demand match need in Nottingham City?” September 2011

Older People in Nottingham City Only 11.5% of population compared to 16% nationally 37,000 people over 64 years; 5000 are 85 and over Increase by 6% by 2020; over 84’s by 17% 900 in carehomes, 50% age 85 and over 35% live alone; 54% for over 84’s 92% white compared to 81% general population

Where they live Lots of bungalows here

Groups M, O account for 30% of the older population – high welfare need Groups G, J, K and L account for 37% - relatively well off Mosaic Group Residents Age 65 and over % Residents All Ages %Index B Residents of small and mid-sized towns with strong local roots C Wealthy people living in the most sought after neighbourhoods D Successful professionals living in suburban or semi-rural homes E Middle income families living in moderate suburban semis F Couples with young children in comfortable modern housing G Young, well-educated city dwellers H Couples and young singles in small modern starter homes I Lower income workers in urban terraces in often diverse areas J Owner occupiers in older-style housing in ex-industrial areas K Residents with sufficient incomes in right-to-buy social houses L Active elderly people living in pleasant retirement locations M Elderly people reliant on state support N Young people renting flats in high density social housing O Families in low-rise social housing with high levels of benefit need U Unclassified

Income Deprivation affecting older peopleOlder population 20% of the older population live in most deprived quintile. 24% of the older population live in the most affluent quintile 40% Under 65 pop live in most deprived IMD quintile Inverse relationship -- % OP increases, IMD decreases

Health Need Care Need Weak correlation R 2 = 0.24

Service use – means tested Care Need Quite strong correlation R 2 = 0.45

Service use – means tested Health Need Correlation R 2 = 0.33

Service use – means tested OP Deprivation Correlation R2 = 0.34

Next steps Identify areas of high resource use – can services be better integrated for these people? Health resource –how much do OP cost? –model life cycle – are all costs associated with near death? Does increase in older population mean higher costs or deferred costs?