Jun-Hyeok Son and Kyong-Hwan Seo

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Presentation transcript:

Jun-Hyeok Son and Kyong-Hwan Seo Dominant Modes of the East Asian Summer Monsoon Using Equivalent Potential Temperature Jun-Hyeok Son and Kyong-Hwan Seo Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Pusan National University, Korea email: j-hson@pusan.ac.kr 1

East Asian Summer Monsoon EPT and dEPT/dy June EPT and dEPT/dy July Color : 850-hPa Equivelant potential temperature (EPT) Contour : Meridional gradient of EPT

A method for determining stationary front Surface water chart (KMA) Meridional gradient of 850-hPa equivalent potential temperature (EPT) Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab

East Asian Summer Monsoon 서 론 East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation JJA June July Aug. Color : precipitation mean Contour : interannual STD

Multi-variables EOF using EPT, u-wind and v-wind in 850-hPa General characteristics during the Changma period Multi-variables EOF using EPT, u-wind and v-wind in 850-hPa June July - 850-hPa EPT (color) - 850-hPa wind (vector) Okhotsk Sea high is strong in June. WNPSH is dominant in July. Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab

General characteristics during the Changma period Wave-train from North Atlantic Ocean (June) Wave-train from Western North Pacific (July) Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab

General characteristics during the Changma period June MAM(0) July MAM(0) June JJA(0) July JJA(0) Correlation of SST (color) Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab

Correlation matrix EOF for EPT Quick summery Dominent modes of EASM in July Correlation matrix EOF for EPT First three modes of EOF (color) and regressed precipitation (contour)

Dominent modes of EASM in July Quick summery Dominent modes of EASM in July SST correlation map PC1 PC2 PC3 DJF(-1) MAM JJA DJF

Dynamical mechanism (mode 1) Quick summery Dominent modes of EASM in July Dynamical mechanism (mode 1) Low High Low Westerly wind Color : Precipitation Vector : 500-hPa wind

Dynamical mechanism (mode 2) Quick summery Dominent modes of EASM in July Dynamical mechanism (mode 2) Low High Color : T500, Contour : Z500, Vector : 200-hPa wind

Dynamical mechanism (mode 3) Quick summery Dominent modes of EASM in July Dynamical mechanism (mode 3) Easterly wind anomaly Low High Westerly Color : Precipitation, Vector : 500-hPa wind

Physical-statistical prediction model Quick summery Work in progress...... Physical-statistical prediction model P = + 0.82A(May) - 0.72B(Mar. ~ Apr.) + 0.50C(May – Apr.) + 0.68D(Apr.) Domain of PRCP : [116.25 ~ 141.25°E, 31.25 ~ 41.25°N]

Development of physical-statistical Quick summery Work in progress...... Development of physical-statistical prediction model GMSS (0.67) Forecast Above Normal Below OBS 2006, 2009, 2012 2003, 2007, 2011 2005, 2010 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2001 1999 1994, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2008 Observation Forecast Forecast using previous spring (until May) SST

1 2 3 Summery Interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon is dominated by different mode in June and July. - June : Okhotsk Sea high (mP) - July : WNPSH (mT) 1 The CP El-Nino, PDO and Indian Ocean basin wide warming affect to the East Asian summer monsoon in July. These boundary forcing make atmospheric waves and significantly intensify the East Asian summer monsoon front. 2 Based on these analysis, physical-statistical prediction model is built up for the forecast of the precipitation in July. (correlation : 0.78, RMSE : 0.75). 3 Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab

Thank you. Climate and Atmospheric Dynamics Lab