Predictions, vulnerability and impacts of climate change on agriculture: Which referential(s) for the region? A. Jalloh, M. D. Faye, H. Roy-Macauley, P. Sereme, R. Zougmore, G. C. Nelson, T. S. Thomas, K. Ahossane, P.B. Irenikatche Akponikpe, S. Conde, A. Danguioua, S. Hassan, C.E. Ikuenobe, R.G. Johnson, M. Kandeh, B. S. Karmorh, M. Khouma, A. E. Lawin, D. M. d’Croz, D. K. Nutsukpo, A. Palazzo, R. Robertson, L. Some, A. Tchinguilou, H. Yaye Presentation at the High Level Forum of Climate- Smart Agriculture (CSA) Stakeholders in West Africa June 15 – 18, 2015, Bamako, Mali

Introduction – 5 th Assessment Report A very likely decrease in average annual rainfall has occurred in some parts of western Africa, with an observed drop in average annual rainfall of approximately 25–50 mm each decade from 1951–2010 Climate change has already led to changes in freshwater and marine ecosystems in eastern and southern Africa, and terrestrial ecosystems in southern and western Africa Regardless of future emissions, we are already committed to further warming, largely due to past emissions and inertia in the climate system

Predictions: 5 th Assessment Report If global society continues to emit greenhouse gases at current rates, the average global temperature could rise by 2.6–4.8°C by 2100 Under a low-emissions scenario, average temperature rises across Africa are projected to be less than 2°C over the course of the century There will be a likely increase in the frequency of hot days across the Sahara and parts of west, east and southern Africa. Global mean sea level will continue to rise during the 21 st century under all emissions scenarios, by a magnitude that poses significant risks for Africa’s coastal settlements, cultures and ecosystems and economies

Key Risks Sporadic variability in onset of rains and abrupt end in rainy season Compounded stress (overexploitation and degradation) on water resources - increased demand in the future with drought stress exacerbated in drought prone regions of Africa Reduced crop productivity associated with heat and drought stress increased pest and disease damage Changes in the incidence and geographic range of vector and water-borne diseases Sea level rice and flood impacts on coastal settlements and food system infrastructure

Changes in yields (percent), 2010–2050, from the DSSAT crop model: CSIRO A1B MIROC A1B Maize Climate change is very likely to have an overall negative effect on yields of major cereal crops across Africa, though with strong regional variability in the degree of loss Estimated yield losses at mid- century range from 18% for southern Africa to 22% aggregated across West Africa: Maize – 13.9%; Groundnut – 5.5 %; Sorghum - 6.8% Sorghum Groundnut

Scenarios of the future A significant increase in the population of all countries except Cape Verde – pessimistic: population of all countries will more than double except Cape Verde Income per capita in the optimistic scenario could range from US$ 1,594 for Liberia to US$ 6,265 for Cote d’Ivoire. Income per capita does not improve significantly in the pessimistic scenario

Climate-Smart Agriculture It is agriculture that sustainably increases productivity, resilience (adaptation), reduces/removes greenhouse gases (mitigation), and enhances achievement of national food security and development goals. (FAO 2010) Farmers, pastoralists and fisher folks may have to contend with new farming cultures including land tenure and changing food habits

Recommendations Available and accessible weather data – AGRHYMET Capacity building in climate science and need for targeted research for climate smart technologies. Harmonized use of rivers for irrigation and electricity Conservation of natural resources, particularly forests, and the development of parks. Sustained economic integration (common currency and trade policies) Reliable trunk and feeder roads for free movement of goods and people throughout the region. Effective linkage and dialogue between researchers and policy makers - AfricaInteract

9 THANK YOU – MERCI