OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 1 WG/TCR 2009 IHC: WG/TCR Workshop Wrap-up Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs,

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OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 1 WG/TCR 2009 IHC: WG/TCR Workshop Wrap-up Workshop: Identifying Tropical Cyclone Research Needs, Progress and Gaps

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 2 WG/TCR Combined Man-Years & $ Included in Study Total Man-Years: 228 Total $ With Facilities: $50.2M Without Facilities: 37.7M

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 3 WG/TCR Combined Man-Years vs Research Category General ResearchNWPObservations

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 4 WG/TCR Combined Man-Years Mapped to JTWC Priorities Intensity Change Storm Surge Observations Genesis Size/Structure Stat Aids Fcst Efficiency Track Fcst Wind Analysis Model Res vs Ensembles QPF Radar/Sat. Data Seasonal Progs SST Gradients TC Research Roughly Aligned with Operational Priorities Intensity & Structure: ~ 35%

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 5 WG/TCR Snapshot analysis of all agency research efforts mapped against research needs and operational priorities –Fairly even distribution of TC research investment among agencies cover most operational priorities –Intensity/structure change #1, but very difficult –Captures >90% research in 75 IHC abstracts –Work in progress Summary

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 6 WG/TCR Areas of Concern / Gaps –Little emphasis on forecaster aids (guidance on guidance) Not just an applied research problem Needs greater emphasis in basic as well as applied Include math / probability community –Little emphasis on resolution vs. ensemble model output* Summary * First HFIP issue

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 7 WG/TCR Areas of Concern / Gaps (continued) –Continue global model improvement (NUOPC) –Major Concern / Gap Lack of inclusion of social science and associated decision-making issues related to TC research Summary

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 8 WG/TCR Next steps of WG/TCR –Develop set of interagency strategic objectives driven by requirements (intensity/structure, track, RI, genesis) –Relate research efforts toward achieving strategic objectives –Document continued work of WG/TCR –Formalize executive oversight –Address major concern to address social science and decision-making issues Summary

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 9 WG/TCR Track Error Comparison Parameter24hrs48hrs72hrs96hrs120hrs Orig MGPACOM50nm100nm150nmn/a JTWC 5yr avg65nm110nm165nm224nm301nm NHC 5yr avg64nm113nm163nm221nm286nm HFIP32nm55nm82nm110nm143nm New?30nm60nm90nm120nm150nm 76K sq. nm210K sq. nm495K sq. nm (Texas is 267K) Capability Gain* * based on avg TC restricting c. 283K sq. mi

OFCM-Sponsored Working Group for Tropical Cyclone Research 10 WG/TCR Action: New DoD Strategic Objectives? 10 Parameter12hrs24hrs48hrs72hrs96hrs120hrs Track30nm45nm60nm90nm120nm150nm Intensity n/a0.5T1.0T1.5TClass Gale Radius xxx 30nm45nm60nm90nm Genesis95%90%75%50%-- Notional Measures and Objectives Recommended Criteria: Tied to Operational capability Sufficiently challenging to guide research Interagency (where feasible) Verifiable—Ocean Surface Vector Winds?