Arctic Ice Melt A Study of Sea Ice Variability in the Northwest Passage: Implications for Ship Navigation Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus

Arctic Ice Melt A Study of Sea Ice Variability in the Northwest Passage: Implications for Ship Navigation Larin M. Lash, Mike L. Harrington, Evan P. Menkhus Introduction

A Long Awaited Trade Route Huge Global Significance (London to Tokyo, to < 8000 mi) The Five Players

Introduction 2010 G-7 Summit in Iqaluit, Canada Canada’s Continental Shelf Claim Military Bases & Seaport $7 Billion for ice breakers / patrol vessels

Introduction “ The first principle of sovereignty is either use it, or lose it. “ Steven Harper, Canadian Prime Minister Canada’s resolute attitude “ It’s one of our government’s priorities, the assertion of our sovereignty in the Arctic “ Jim Flaherty, Finance Minister Russia and the United States, the Bering Strait Greenland (Denmark)

Introduction Arctic Ice changed in 2007 Climate trends Clouds / Albedo Sept. 2010

Introduction Study Objective: To utilize satellite imagery to determine if Arctic ice is melting at a predictable or measurable rate that can be used to forecast the annual presence of ice in the Northwest Passage, possibly providing its controlling countries with a new global trade route.

The Study Area

Methods

The Results Image Analysis Data DateIceWater% Ice% Water%∆ Change in Ice 8/20/ %18.4% 8/29/ %85.2%-66.7% 8/31/ %74.2%11.0% 9/1/ %86.8% /3/ %61.2%25.6% 9/22/ %35.7%25.5% 9/7/ %63.2%-27.6% Study period: 1992 – 2010

The Results

Conclusion 1973 – 2010 Imagery Cloud cover issues Our findings

Future Studies Recommendations Passive Microwave Imagery Incorporation of additional data

Questions? ?